Narrow Results

Pricing the natural capital is very critical for the achievement of carbon neutrality. This paper uses the Shephard input distance function to derive the shadow price of natural capital under regulatory constraints, which corrects the biased estimates without these constraints of previous studies. We relax the assumption of cost-minimizing behavior at market price and incorporate the price inefficiency in our model. This model is applied to the Chinese provincial dataset from 2004 to 2017. We observe that the average shadow prices of mineral, water, woodland and forest are 391CNY/metric tons of coal equivalent (tce), 0.13CNY/m³, 772CNY/hm² and 344CNY/hm², respectively. For the dynamic effect, the shadow prices of natural capital rise sharply between 2004 and 2014. By testing the price efficiency, we demonstrate that regulatory constraints have an impact on shadow prices of natural capital in practice.

This study focuses on the contribution of natural capital to achieving carbon neutrality in China based on the provincial data from 1998 to 2019. This paper first measures the natural capital of each province by ecological footprint (EF), then explores the contribution of natural capital on carbon total factor productivity (CTFP) through a global non-radial Luenberger productivity indicator (GLPI), and decomposes the new CTFP into efficiency change (EC) and technical change (TC). We find that the contribution of natural capital to CTFP is relatively small, mainly due to the negative impact of infrastructure land and energy footprint and the decline of the marginal effect of natural capital and environmental carrying capacity. Second, technology innovation is still a main driver of promoting the CTFP of EF. Third, the contribution of natural capital to CTFP varies greatly with different types of natural capital and regions. We provide corresponding policy implications based on the main conclusions.

Enhancing ecological efficiency stands out as a crucial avenue to realize carbon emission reduction without compromising economic and social development. This study introduces a fairness-concern ecological efficiency evaluation model to address the overestimation of efficiency values in traditional models with maintaining the balance between production activities and environmental conservation during the process of ecological efficiency measurement. The theoretical model is applied to 28 OECD countries, and reveals a general ecological efficiency for them during 2013 to 2017. The efficiency value assessments presented herein offer policymakers valuable insights for enhancing efficiency based on diverse preferences.

After the Chinese government’s announcement to achieve the goal of “carbon peaking and carbon neutrality”, the solar photovoltaic power generation industry in the country has experienced rapid development. This paper examines the impact of China’s “dual-carbon” goal on the country’s photovoltaic industry. Photovoltaic companies listed on the stock market are selected and the stock price data of these selected companies from June 1, 2020 to January 28, 2022 are tested for potential structural changes. The paper adopts the Quandt–Andrews test and the results show that the four selected companies have indeed undergone structural changes within one year after the announcement of the dual-carbon goal, and that the demand for photovoltaic power generation equipment has increased significantly. Finally, some suggestions are put forward for enhancing the photovoltaic industry after the COVID-19 pandemic.

Using a growth model that accounts for environmental and climate externalities, we take a closer look at the welfare effects of promoting biomass growth and the use of bioenergy, and especially the role of carbon neutrality. As an illustration, a hypothetical intensive forest cultivation project is simulated. Costs and benefits of the project show that only determining the postive effects of promoting biomass growth and the use of bioenergy, such as substitution away from fossil fuels and carbon sequestration is not sufficient. But more importantly, to achieve a balanced measure of the effects on the climate, we must also incorporate all carbon emissions that are associated with bioenergy. Not doing so will over-estimate the positive climate effects of increasing the use of bioenergy.

Under the pressure of economic uncertainty and environmental protection in the post-COVID-19 era, achieving a new round of employment dividends has become one practical choice. Using the panel data of 30 Chinese provinces from 2007 to 2019, this study estimates the employment outcomes of carbon ETS pilots based on the difference-in-differences model. The findings of this study indicate the following: (1) Carbon ETS pilots can positively increase employment scales with an average effect of 7.12%. (2) This promoting effect will become more significant in provinces with high education levels, provinces with high average wages, and eastern region provinces. But there is no obvious difference between gender. (3) This positive effect can be transferred and enhanced by market competition and energy consumption. At the crossroads of green economic recovery, it will be greatly beneficial to formulate the national carbon market development roadmap under the carbon neutrality strategy.

China’s declaration to the international community to peak CO₂ emissions before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality before 2060 is of great significance in advancing the objectives of the Paris Agreement, and has a positive and far-reaching impact on China’s high-quality development. This paper expounds on responsibilities and ambitions in tackling climate change, analyzes the high-quality development opportunities brought about by CO₂ emissions peak and carbon neutrality, and discusses the net zero carbon emissions transformation in the new era of ecological civilization. This paper is of the view that development towards net zero carbon emissions provides a new impetus for building a Beautiful China, and promoting ecological civilization and green development. The essence of carbon neutrality should be correctly understood so that the world will work together to improve climate resilience. China should also deepen the understanding of the principles and methodologies of climate change economics.

China is one of the parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and has been actively promoting the multilateral global climate governance process. China has advanced its eco-civilization construction and the agenda for combating climate change in a coordinated manner, and delivered positive results. By studying and interpreting the guiding principles of President Xi Jinping’s important speeches at the Leaders Summit on Climate and the video summit between China, France and Germany, this paper goes over the basic thinking of China’s participation in international climate governance and the Chinese approach to tackling global climate change, and sums up China’s achievements in the fields such as transition to green and low-carbon development, energy structure adjustment, greenhouse gases control, the construction of national carbon market, as well as its contribution to tackling global climate change.

China aims to peak carbon emissions before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. It is a strategic decision made after deliberate consideration by the Central Government. Such goals reflect China’s responsibility as a major country in responding to global climate change, its vision of the future world development, and its commitment to green transformation. After the 18th CPC National Congress, China has undergone a fundamental change in its development philosophy. Protecting the environment is no longer regarded as a burden upon economic growth, but as a driving force for high-quality development. Emissions reduction has also changed from a task inflicted upon local governments to a goal people identify with. More than 120 countries have proposed carbon neutrality targets in different ways by now. The global consensus on carbon neutrality marks the end of the traditional industrial era and the start of a new development era. The concept of carbon neutrality redefines and reshapes the entire development paradigm. It is a self-revolution of the mode of production and life. It not only poses an unprecedented challenge but also provides a strategic opportunity for China. China is likely to lead the world in future green transformation and global climate governance.

The “Proposals for Formulating the 14th Five-Year Plan (2021–2025) for National Economic and Social Development and the Long-Range Objectives Through the Year 2035” puts forth that there will be a fundamental improvement in the environment with the goal of building a Beautiful China basically. One of the key measurements of Beautiful China is carbon neutrality orientation. The task of achieving carbon neutrality is arduous, and the key difficulty of carbon neutrality lies in cities. The author believes there should be a timetable and a roadmap for carbon neutrality in cities. First, it is necessary to clarify the goal of achieving carbon emissions peak in the “14th Five-Year Plan”. Second, urban renewal, old city reconstruction and new infrastructure need to be incorporated into carbon constraints, so as to strictly prevent carbon locks, and fundamentally eliminate carbon demands. Third, the new construction, expansion or reconstruction of cities needs to be oriented by carbon neutrality.

Since September 22, 2020, President Xi Jinping, who is also the general secretary of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee, has reiterated China’s carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals on many major international occasions and at many important conferences of the CPC Central Committee. The transition to carbon neutrality is becoming a systemic revolution concerning whether China’s high-quality economic and social development and sustainable prosperity can be achieved. Incorporating carbon peaking and carbon neutrality well into overall economic and social development framework and ecological civilization construction, setting out the timetable, clarifying the roadmap, and proposing specific action plans have become a global concern. Through the analysis of international situations and China’s national strategies, and the application of Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium (IAMC), this paper explores China’s pathways to carbon peaking and neutrality, and puts forward recommendations for high-quality development featuring low emissions.

Power industry is the largest carbon emission sector in China. Therefore, this industry will play an important role in achieving the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals (“dual carbon” goals) for the whole society. For this purpose, it is critical to balance four relationships, i.e. relationship between carbon mitigation and energy security, carbon peaking in the short term and carbon neutrality in the long term, the coordinated carbon mitigation in power industry and other industries, and technical feasibility and economic efficiency. This paper proposes the China’s Energy Interconnection scenario to promote carbon peaking and carbon neutrality of the society, which can be divided into three stages, i.e. peaking carbon emissions before 2030, rapid emission reduction during 2030–2050, and comprehensive carbon neutrality before 2060. It is expected that the power system will achieve zero emissions before other industries and contribute negative emissions afterwards, providing emission space for carbon neutrality in other industries across the society. Looking into the future, China’s electricity demand will continue to grow. Clean energy will become the main power source, the use of coal-fired power will be gradually reduced, and gas-fired power will undertake the function of peak-load regulation. Faster progress will be made in forming an overall grid pattern with ultra-high voltage (UHV) grid as the backbone and featuring “west-to-east and north-to-south power transmission, a balanced energy mix, and transnational power interconnection.” Finally, this paper discusses a new-type of power system characterized by a high proportion of electricity generated from clean energy, high ratio of electric and electronic equipment, and a high proportion of power transmission and reception, together with summer and winter high load periods, and points out the challenges faced by the new-type power system with a high proportion of renewable energy sources in terms of flexibility, safety, and economic efficiency, and proposes corresponding policy recommendations.

The greenhouse gas emissions from China’s transport sector, which account for a large proportion of China’s total greenhouse gas emissions, are still increasing rapidly. Therefore, low-carbon transformation is urgently needed in China’s transport sector. This paper provides an overview of the situation and features of greenhouse gas emissions from China’s transport sector, and proposes carbon-neutral development paths for the transport sector based on current national policies, goals and previous research. China needs to work on many aspects, including transport restructuring, alternative fuel technologies and energy efficiency improvement, to achieve near-zero emission goals by 2060. Under the carbon neutrality goal, China’s transport sector should strive to reach the carbon peaking goal by 2030, and limit carbon emissions within 100 million tons by 2060.

Achieving carbon peaking and carbon neutrality in the building sector is an important component of China’s “dual carbon” goals. In recent years, the country’s direct carbon emissions in the building sector have hit a plateau while the total emissions still grow rapidly. Besides, the building materials for construction and refrigerants leaked during buildings’ operation also result in greenhouse gas emissions. To achieve the targets set for future low-carbon development, the building sector should feature “sufficient demand, decarbonized structure and flexible load.” According to the analysis of the emission reduction approaches adopted by different sectors, China’s building sector should make a ceaseless effort to promote building energy conservation, improve electrification, and load flexibility, reform the energy system in rural areas, optimize the heating structure in northern China’s urban areas, as well as reduce the emissions during construction and the non-CO₂ gas emissions. In the 14th Five-Year period, it is suggested to clarify the total energy consumption and carbon emission targets, adjust the energy structure more vigorously, and draw up more measures to reduce the emissions related to construction and refrigerant leakage.

This paper summarizes the new progress in building China’s national carbon market since 2020, and analyzes the connotation of China’s carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals (“dual carbon” goals) and its significance to socio-economic development in China. Through case analysis, this paper expounds the role of China’s recent carbon trading activities in promoting the transition toward green and low-carbon socio-economic development. On that basis, this paper conceives a top-level design for building the national carbon market that serves the “dual carbon” goals: building and improving the national carbon market that fundamentally serves as an emission reduction tool, developing the institutions and systems of the national carbon market with a focus on emission cap, creating a multilevel and diversified carbon trading scheme centered on the national carbon market, exploring a mechanism that takes carbon emission reduction as the core and promotes the synergistic effect of the carbon market with other environmental rights trading markets, and pursuing the healthy and orderly development of carbon finance that aims to serve carbon emission reduction.

Carbon emissions trading is a major innovation in the practice of using market mechanism to control and reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and promote green and low-carbon development. It is an important way to achieve China’s carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals (the “dual carbon” goals) at a relatively low cost. Starting late and having gone through three development stages, China’s national carbon market has entered a new stage. However, given the problems such as incomplete institutional, regulatory and carbon emissions verification systems, less balanced and vibrant market, limited transaction entities and trading products, and lack of voice due to insufficient participation in relevant international affairs, continuous efforts are still required to further improve this market by deepening reform, strengthening capacity building and increasing international cooperation.

Now, China has made it clear that it will strive to have CO₂ emissions peak before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality before 2060 (the “dual carbon” goals), based on the logic that carbon peaking is a prerequisite for carbon neutrality. The year 2021 is the first year of China’s 14th Five-Year Plan period. As the main battlefields to achieve the “dual carbon” goals, cities are also required to build on their pathways towards such goals under new conditions. Based on the progress China has made with pilot cities for low-carbon development and the discussion on 60 cities by category, this paper identifies the commonalities and differences between Chinese cities’ pathways towards carbon peaking, and concludes that Chinese cities need to peak their carbon emissions in an organized and step-wise way on the basis of classification and according to their own development level and emission characteristics. In light of the above conclusion, this paper provides feasible suggestions for Chinese cities’ carbon peaking.

Achieving carbon neutrality requires the fundamental transformation of the development paradigm, the disruptive technologies. With efficiency-improving technologies and carbon removal technologies alone, it is possible to move further towards low carbon but hard to achieve carbon neutrality. It can only be realized through thorough decoupling from fossil energy with disruptive technologies. This revolution aiming at carbon neutrality has not only made new ground in the energy market, but also the central task which is to revolutionize zero-carbon energy production and consumption through underlying changes to the relations of production and mode of distribution, thereby pushing forward the fundamental transformation of social development paradigm.

In the analogy where achieving the “carbon peaking and carbon neutrality” goals (the “dual carbon” goals) is compared to a battle, energy is the main battlefield, and electric power the main force. The low-carbon transformation path of the electric power industry exerts fundamental impact on progress towards carbon peaking and carbon neutrality of the whole society. Therefore, this paper first analyzes challenges and opportunities faced by the electric power industry to achieve the “dual carbon” goals; secondly, on the basis of deep low-carbon, zero-carbon and negative-carbon scenarios of the electric power industry, this paper quantifies and delves into the consumption structure of primary energy and final energy, as well as the future development positioning and trend of different categories of energy. Based on the research results, this paper proposes low-carbon transformation path of the electric power system at the stages of carbon peaking, deep low-carbon and carbon neutrality, and analyzes the trend of power supply cost changes in different scenarios. On this basis, a series of implementation key points and measures are proposed to adapt to green and low-carbon transformation of the electric power industry, covering areas such as coal-fired electric power development positioning, new energy development and utilization, diversified supply and demand, new energy industry chain, and power supply costs, and so forth.

After the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals were proposed, different institutions and scholars carried out research on China’s medium- and long-term mitigation pathways. Through the literature review of China’s research on carbon neutrality, this paper finds that the zero-carbon energy transition is the key to achieving carbon neutrality. The main driving factors of reducing energy-related carbon emissions include the cleanliness of primary and secondary energy supply systems, the electrification of energy consumption and the development of hydrogen energy, energy efficiency improvement, carbon capture and storage (CCS), and negative emissions. Furthermore, based on the literature, this paper conducts a quantitative comparative analysis, and selects key indicators for comparative analysis and summary from seven dimensions, including economic and social development, carbon emission pathways, primary energy consumption, final energy consumption, final hydrogen energy consumption, electricity demand and supply, and installed capacity and structure of power generation. Main conclusions are as follows: (i) In terms of carbon emission pathways, the institutions generally believed that China will peak carbon emissions around 2028 and achieve carbon neutrality between 2050 and 2060. Achieving net-zero or near-zero emissions first in the power sector is the key to carbon neutrality across the society; (ii) In terms of energy supply, it is a consensus to increase the proportion of clean energy and reduce carbon emissions from the source. The proportion of clean energy in primary energy will increase to more than 85%, and the proportion of clean energy power generation and installed capacity will reach more than 90%; (iii) In terms of energy use, electricity will become the core of final energy consumption in the future. The predicted electricity consumption across the society will range 14.3–18.4PWh, and the predicted electrification rate will exceed 65%.