Narrow Results

Western China is typically sensitive to climate change and ecologically fragile. It also has large numbers of people living in poverty, and it is a hot spot for emigration. This paper takes the Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region (NHAR) as a case and, employing a mixed-method research combining exploratory research and confirmatory research where quantitative analysis and qualitative analysis are made, conducts an empirical study on the dynamics of climate change impacts on migration. Firstly, this paper identified the fragile characteristics of different types of migrant groups (including policy-facilitated migrants, voluntary migrants and economic migrants) in the context of climate change; secondly, based on confirmatory factor analysis, this paper conducted climate change vulnerability assessment at county level, and explored several common potential factors affecting the regional fragility of climate change in Ningxia, include: climate capacity, social and economic development level, human capital, transportation infrastructure, and education level, etc. The result shows that the climate capacity factor accounts for 37.5% of contribution to regional climate change vulnerability. This paper justified that lacking climate capacity in long-term climate change is the major driving factor of climate-induced poverty and migration in the middle and south Ningxia. Based on a DPISR model, this paper developed a theoretical framework with its core concept “climate capacity”. Within this analytical framework, a series of indicators on climate capacity and climate-induced poverty were suggested to assess climate change related migration risks, which can support local migration planning in Ningxia and other western China areas.

Though researches about productivity from the aspects of economics and ecology have covered natural factors, the most basic climatic factors therein were ignored. The eco-footprint and climate capacity have an explicit coverage of the impact of climatic factors on productivity. It can be concluded that climate is also a kind of productivity and mitigating climate change is improving productivity, after an analysis of the primary, industrial, and ecological climatic productivities defined by the decisive factors of climatic productivity. In view of the above, the study of climatic productivity needs to be further deepened in both theory and methodology.