Narrow Results

This paper considers an epidemiological model, referred to as SEIDRS disease model design for a communicable disease insurance policy. Epidemiologically, the individual population has five demographic groups, which includes: susceptibles (S), exposed (E), infectives undergoing treatments (I), infectives but dead (D) and (R) infectives but recovered from the communicable disease as stipulated in the insurance policy. The latter rejoined the susceptible group and then, continues with the insurance company by paying premium until such insured becomes infected again. The class of infectives comprises a union of those groups that are under treatment and the dead policy holders (PHs). The susceptible and exposed individuals constantly face the risks of being infected by the disease, while the infective class faces the risks of death resulting from the disease. Again, the probability function of a PH to remain susceptible under the SEIDRS disease model is considered, in this paper. Consequently, we obtain, for the insurance policy, the probability density function and cumulative distribution function under the SEIDRS disease model. Using the actuarial principles and techniques, we determine the parties’ insurance financial obligations as well as the insurance quantities. Some empirical results arising from the model analyses, in this paper are considered.

Using epidemiological and actuarial analysis, this paper formulates some new actuarial mathematical models, called S-I-DR-S models, for insuring the susceptibles of a population exposed to a communicable disease. Epidemiologically, the population is structured into four demographic groups, namely: susceptibles $(S)$, infectives $(I)$, diseased $(D)$ and recovered $(R)$, with the latter automatically re-entering the group of susceptibles $(S)$. The insurance policies are targeted at the members of the susceptible group who face the risk of infection and death due to the disease. Using actuarial techniques and principles, we determine some interesting features of the model, namely, (a) financial obligations of the parties, (b) present value of premiums, (c) quantum of claims by infected policy holders (PHs), (d) quantum of claims on behalf of deceased PHs, (e) cumulative insurance reserve for annuity and (f) lump sum plan. To check the risk of insolvency, premium adjustment for the PHs is also considered.