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This paper analyzes the dependence pattern of net debts inflows on the sovereign debts rating and the fiscal balance, on accounting for the productivity growth rate. The cross-section evidence on a sample of 149 economies for the period from 1990 to 2019 uncovers that a higher sovereign debts rating, a lower fiscal balance or a higher productivity growth is associated with more net debts inflows. Thus, the debts flows are underlined by the store of wealth accumulation across economies. Moreover, there exists a nonlinearity on the pattern of debts flows, for which the fiscal balance determines the impact of sovereign debts rating on the net debts inflows. The results are robust for panel data regression as well as case study of three economies including Japan, Thailand and Vietnam.

The paper explores the impact of safe assets on the economic growth on the financial globalization context. The method employs both cross-section and panel data regression on a data sample of 148 economies, both advanced and developing ones, over the 1990–2019 period. The robustness analysis is carried out by controlling for different sub-sampling data, including advanced economies compared with emerging and developing economies, and 3 consecutive 10-year periods from 1990 to 2019. The empirical evidence establishes an inverted-U-shaped dependence pattern of economic growth on the assets safety, measured by the sovereign debts rating. The economic growth is first increasing then decreasing on the assets safety, with the turning point being the value at 12.0 of sovereign debts rating. Thus, the assets safety only exerts a positive impact on the economic growth for the low safety level.

This paper studies the dynamic relationship between demand for the US Treasury yields and cross-currency swap (CCS) bases since the 2008 global financial crisis. Using a three-factor non-Gaussian-term structure model for the US Treasuries, an estimated short-rate premium in the yield curve tends to move in tandem with and lead the euro and Japanese yen CCS bases against the US dollar. The dynamics between the premium and CCS bases are found to be co-integrated, suggesting a long-run equilibrium between them. Empirically, the premium is found to be positively related to demand for Treasuries. This is consistent with recent studies in which factors including the strength of the US dollar, the demand for dollar funding and banks’ balance-sheet structures play important roles in determining the CCS bases. These factors increase demand for US Treasuries (high-quality US dollar assets) by investors searching for safe dollar assets and banks with higher leverages due to increased demand for dollar funding. The findings in this paper contribute to explaining the widespread failure of covered interest parity in foreign exchange swap markets.