Narrow Results

This paper explores the interactions between the Bitcoin (BTC) prices in the US and Chinese markets, by employing the bootstrap rolling window causality test. The results reveal that BTC prices behave differently across markets, and also vary with time, which subjects to the theory of price discovery. In other words, the BTC price in one market could precede the other, and vice versa, based on the information advantage. Markets that are more flexible (US) respond sensitively to information, thus, in order to induce the price changes in Chinese markets. The improvements in the economic conditions of the emerging markets have exerted an influential role in global markets. Since the Chinese market possesses a considerable amount of trading volumes, the BTC price in the US can be assumed to chase the BTC price in China. The lead–lag relationship between these two markets also reflects the acknowledgement of the aversion towards the risks involved in accepting BTC as a currency. However, knowing which market reacts the most quickly to new information could prove to be beneficial to regulators who aim to implement a particular BTC price, and, as a result, prevent any arbitrary prices, and eventually stabilize the financial market.

Previous studies that examined the impact of exchange rate misalignment on economic growth were based on the symmetric approach where both overvalued and undervalued exchange rates were supposed to affect the economic growth in a similar way. However, in recent years, a number of studies have established that exchange rate changes affect the trade flows in an asymmetric way. Hence, this study investigates the asymmetric effect of exchange rate misalignment on the economic growth of Pakistan. The findings of the study indicate that in the case of the symmetric approach, exchange rate misalignment has a negative impact on economic growth. However, after applying the nonlinear ARDL approach, the study finds significant evidence in favor of the asymmetric effect of exchange rate misalignment on economic growth. Interestingly, the results indicate that undervaluation spurs while over-valuation hampers the economic growth in Pakistan. The study recommends that though under-valued exchange rate may have temporary relief for the economy, yet in the long run, a market-based equilibrium exchanger rate is imperative for a developing economy like Pakistan.

This study aims to examine the interaction among tourism revenue (TOV), the real exchange rate (REX), and economic development in Vietnam throughout 1995–2019. Using the bivariate and multivariate wavelet frameworks, we examine the lead–lag connectedness, co-movement and dynamic associations between these indicators across various time and frequency domains. By doing so, we employ wavelet transform coherence (WTC), cross-wavelet transform (XWT), partial wavelet coherence (PWC) and multiple wavelet coherence (MWC) frameworks. The findings indicate low covariance but a positive and robust nexus between tourism demand (TOV), economic growth (gross domestic product (GDP)), and the REX in the time–frequency space. In the long run, interdependence between variables is primarily negative and weak. The outcomes of PWC and MWC reveal that REX and GDP determinants affect the TOV–GDP and TOV–REX relationships under different frequencies, respectively. These results are of interest and significance to the Vietnamese government and policymakers as the outcomes have important implications for informing their decision-making.

Recent studies on the relationship between exchange rates, oil prices, and economic growth in developing countries like Ghana have used linear methods, but do not account for potential asymmetries. This research investigates the intricate asymmetric effects of exchange rates, financial development, and oil prices on Ghana’s growth from 1990–2017 using a nonlinear model. The findings indicate that global oil price has asymmetric effects on short- and long-term growth, with positive price changes having different impacts than negative changes. However, there is no evidence for asymmetric long-term effects of exchange rates and financial development on growth, only short-term asymmetries. The cumulative effects of exchange rates and financial development outweigh oil prices. Recommendations include modernizing fuel efficiency, investing in renewable energy and public transit to address oil price shocks, and increasing market transparency and collaboration between major consumer and producer countries. The nonlinear model provides an evidence-based analysis of the intricate asymmetric relationships between these factors and developing country growth.

The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) was established in 1989. APEC member countries are remarkably different from each other in many respects. The traditional optimum currency area (OCA) theory may not be suitable for application to APEC. This paper stresses business cycles and trade intensity, which are included in OCA theory, and considers whether or not the "currency union" is suitable. The paper develops a procedure for applying OCA theory to APEC and examines these criteria while taking into account the endogeneity of these criteria. The result indicates that adopting the dollar for currency union is much more reasonable than adopting the yen.

Services form a larger part of the Singapore economy. However, it is difficult to analyze the exchange rate impact on services due to the lack of price data. Regression of output or export on exchange rate, while highly intuitive, is likely to suffer from the endogeneity problem since Singapore's exchange rate is used as a counter-cyclical policy tool. This results in inconsistent estimates. I propose a novel approach to overcome these limitations by using Hong Kong as a control for Singapore's economy to implement a pseudo "difference-in-difference" method, exploiting time variation in output, to achieve consistent estimates.

The purpose of this study is to examine the potential linkages among ASEAN-5 currencies, in particular the possibility of a Singapore dollar bloc during the pre- and post-crisis periods by using the Johansen multivariate cointegration test and the Granger causality test. Significant nonstationarity and the presence of unit roots were documented for each currency under both study periods. Using ASEAN-4 exchange rates against the Singapore dollar, the Johansen cointegration test showed that there was no cointegrating relationship during the pre-crisis period. However there were two statistically significant cointegrating vectors among ASEAN exchange rates for the post-crisis period. These findings imply that there is low financial integration before the crisis, but that ASEAN countries are financially more integrated after the crisis. This finding also indicates increasingly role of the Singapore dollar in ASEAN. Therefore, the Singapore dollar may be a possible candidate as the common currency for ASEAN. The analysis is repeated by adding the US dollar to the model. The finding ascertains the influence of the US dollar on ASEAN currencies before the crisis.

We examine the impact of exchange rates on foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows into the United States in the context of a model that allows for the interdependence of FDI over time. Interdependence is modeled as a two-state Markov process where the two states can be interpreted as either a favorable or an unfavorable environment for FDI in an industry. We use unbalanced industry-level panel data from the US wholesale trade sector and our analysis yields two main results. First, we find evidence that FDI is interdependent over time. Second, under a favorable FDI environment, the exchange rate has a positive and significant effect on the average rate of FDI inflows.

This paper examines the causal relationship between central bank intervention and exchange rate returns in India. Using monthly data from December 1997 to December 2011, the empirical results derived from the CCF approach of Cheung and Ng [Journal of Econometrics72 (1996) 33–48] suggest that there is causality-in-variance from exchange rate returns to central bank intervention, but not vice versa. These findings are robust in the sense that they hold in cases where the returns were measured from either the spot rate or the forward rate. Therefore, we conclude that the Indian central bank has intervened in the foreign exchange market to respond to exchange rate volatility, although the volatility has not been influenced by central bank intervention in the form of net purchases of foreign currency in the market.

This paper aims to examine the macroeffects of exchange rate movements on a wide array of real economic variables in the US in a unifying model. By employing the non-linear factor-augmented vector autoregressive (FAVAR) model with simulation methods, we could trace the effects of exchange rate appreciation and depreciation on a wide array of macroeconomic variables through the impulse response function (IRF). The main findings are: (1) In response to dollar depreciation, import price index (IMP), producer price index (PPI) and CPI increase significantly. The pass-through ratio declines along the distribution chain. (2) Merchandise trade balance, current account balance and output improve facing dollar depreciation. (3) Savings decreases in response to dollar depreciation. (4) Employment and average hourly earnings increase in times of exchange rate depreciation and vice versa. The effects on macroeconomy from appreciation and depreciation seem symmetric. Many other interesting findings are also documented.

We approach a significant research topic in international economics by restating the test procedures in a novel manner consistent with monetary theorems with controls using monetary variables and applying an appropriate econometric methodology to re-examine three aspects of exchange rate behavior. (i) Does the inflation (price) factor affect Nominal Exchange Rate (NER)? (ii) Do relative interest rates between countries affect a country’s exchange rate? (iii) Do the price and interest rate effects hold if controls for non-parity factors are embedded in tests? The data series for this study are taken over 55 years covering pre-and-post-Bretton Woods era: a second test was done over the post-Bretton Woods period only using 30 years of data. Also, the traditional factors of parity conditions are extended in this research to take into account recently theorized and tested non-parity factors related to cash flows. The resulting evidence affirms clearly that both the parity factors (prices and interest rates) and the non-parity factors affect exchange rates significantly over the long run, also over the 30-year period. In our view, these findings extend our knowledge of how currency behavior is consistent with parity and non-parity theorems.

We investigate the relationships among credit default swap (CDS), government bond yield, foreign investors’ ownership, and exchange rate by conducting Vector Error Correction Model and Vector Auto Regression. We compare the relationships in the period of 2008 to 2013 and in the sub period when financial crisis happened in 2008. Using daily data from April 28, 2008 to December 31, 2013 in Indonesian government bond market, we find government bond yield plays a significant role; and drives the movement of the other variables. However, during the 2008 crisis, the yield loses its dominance and tends to follow the movement of CDS.

This study is an empirical attempt to revisit energy insecurity in Vietnam by focusing on the role of the official exchange rate. To this end, we gathered data of the related variables based on the 4A’s theory for energy security over the period 1985–2017, and conducted estimation using GMM estimator. The major results proved that economic growth has a positive impact on official exchange rate. CO₂ emissions have negative coefficient which means negative relationship between this variable and the Vietnam’s official exchange rate, while inflation rate has a negative sign suggesting that by increase in price level of commodities in Vietnam’s economy, the domestic product will be more expensive than that before which accelerates commodities import flows that leads to depreciation of Vietnam’s national currency. In addition, we found out that energy intensity has a negative relationship with official exchange rate in Vietnam. Moreover, the results revealed that a 1% increase in gas import has a negative linkage with the Vietnam’s official exchange rate. According to the results, we recommend that Vietnam needs to diversify its gas imports, strengthen local energy production, increasing energy efficiency to have a stronger national currency against U.S. dollar which ensures energy security in this country.

Although oil prices likely influence the trade balance via macroeconomy channels (i.e. exchange rates and income), less widely recognized is the possibility of such an effect in investigating the hypothesis of a J-Curve. Thus, the primary thrust of this paper is to investigate the effect of oil prices on the J-Curve using bilateral trade data between Korea and her 14 largest partners. We uncover that the price of crude oil is indeed important in affecting the Korean trade balance and thus further validity evidence of the J-Curve. We further discover that incorporating exchange rate asymmetry provides more evidence supporting the J-Curve in the Korean trade balance.

Net importing countries are very susceptible to changes in the value of their currency. Pakistan, being a small open economy, faces a constant pressure in its current account and BOP, which leads to unavoidable stress on its exchange rate. Exchange rate movements affect the cost of imports directly which have been studied extensively in empirical literature. However, these studies ignore the possibility of asymmetric effects of exchange rate and its impact on import demand in Pakistan. An appreciation in exchange rate may have a different impact on demand for imports than depreciations depending upon the level of rigidity in consumer preferences as well as the availability of substitutes for consumer goods, capital goods and raw materials. We use quarterly data of Pakistan’s consumer goods, capital goods and raw material imports from 2005:Q1 to 2018:Q4 and employ a relatively recent econometric methodology, namely, Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) technique. The results confirm the existence of asymmetric impact of exchange rate in the long-run. The appreciation of currency has more pronounced impact in increasing imports relative to the depreciation of it in decreasing imports. There are further differences of this effect within imports across consumer goods, capital goods and raw materials. We present policy implications of this asymmetric effect of exchange rate on disaggregated consumer imports.

In this paper, we examine the differences between CNY and other major currencies in coherence and the lead–lag relationship across the different time horizons to clarify whether crude oil, monetary factors, or both drive the movement of exchange rates. We employ partial and multiple wavelet coherence analyses to examine oil-exchange co-movement by excluding the influence of Federal Reserve System (FED) monetary policy — namely, the stance and uncertainty of monetary policy — and the difference in domestic and foreign monetary policy rates. Overall, we find that monetary easing by the FED is a major factor driving the co-movement. Specifically, after excluding the possible effects of monetary policy factors, the movement of the Euro exhibits the strongest and the Japanese yen the weakest dependence on crude oil price changes, whereas the British pound shows a moderate dependence. By contrast, the CNY shows strong co-movement with the crude oil price only over the long term implying the low degree of integration with the global markets. Our empirical results provide meaningful information for investors and policymakers.

This study considers the effects of one real exchange rate on strategies that govern locations of production by firms that are entering N - 1 foreign countries. The batch process production model (Lin, CT and CR Wu (2004a). Asia Pacific Journal of Operational Research, 21, 35–52) which considers two locations of production, one in each of two countries is extended to develop a decision valuation model to choose the two optimal locations to produce a good — one in each country. This extended model applies the real options approach (ROA) to determine the value of locating production in N countries. Moreover, a closed-form solution to the Continuous-Time Model Optimization Problem is derived. The optimal entry threshold value of a firm from country-0 to country-(N - 1) is calculated; a sensitivity analysis is performed, and some characteristic strategies of the operating method for the Constant Elasticity of Substitution (CES) batch process model among N countries are determined. Next, we can get optimal entry threshold value for Cobb-Douglas, perfect substitution and Leontief by CES production function. A useful summary of insights is provided for global managers.

This paper performs the asymmetric multifractal cross-correlation analysis to examine the COVID-19 effects on three relevant high-frequency fiat currencies, namely euro (EUR), yen (YEN) and the Great Britain pound (GBP), and two cryptocurrencies with the highest market capitalization and traded volume (Bitcoin and Ethereum) considering two periods (Pre-COVID-19 and during COVID-19). For both periods, we find that all pairs of these financial assets are characterized by overall persistent cross-correlation behavior $({\alpha }_{xy}(0)>0.5)$. Moreover, COVID-19 promoted an increase in the multifractal spectrum’s width, which implies an increase in the complexity for all pairs considered here. We also studied the Generalized Cross-correlation Exponent, which allows us to verify that there is no asymmetric behavior between Bitcoin and fiat currencies and between Ethereum and fiat currencies. We conclude that investing simultaneously in major fiat currencies and leading cryptocurrencies can reduce the portfolio risk, leading to improvement in the investment results.

The following article aims to detect if long-term memory exists in the Mexican exchange rate market. This research was conducted between 1992 and 2016, during which time different intervention mechanisms were presented. The interventions were divided as follows: a) crawling bands (01/1992–12/1994), b) free flotation in crisis (01/1995–07/1996), c) mixed operations with purchases and sales of dollars by the Central Bank (08/1996–06/2001), d) free flotation (07/2001–04/2003), e) accumulation of international reserves (05/2003–02/2009, f) mixed auctions (03/2009–02/2016), and g) free flotation with interest rate increases (03/2016–12/2016). To detect the presence of long-term memory in the peso–dollar exchange rates, we proposed a fuzzy Hurst exponent. The results evidenced distinct types of behaviors depending on the grade of intervention. Compared to a free-floating regime, persistence and fuzzy Hurst values decreased when the Central Bank intervened in the exchange market. On the other hand, uncertainty increased when monetary authorities imposed a mechanism for buying and selling dollars without an exchange rate target.

In a behavioural equilibrium exchange rate model, this study investigates the movements of the real exchange rate of the Hong Kong dollar under the currency board arrangement from 1984 to 1998. Cointegration analysis based on Johansen approach is applied to derive the equilibrium real exchange rate in behavioural sense for the Hong Kong dollar. Evidence shows that during the period under investigation, the Hong Kong dollar was initially undervalued when the currency board arrangement was installed. It moved in closer line with the equilibrium rate after 1985 and generally remained moderately undervalued until 1993. Then the currency became overvalued following the upsurge of domestic demand and lingered into 1995 before an adjustment took place latter that year. But except for a few quarters, the overvaluation was not substantial and chronic. On the whole, the Hong Kong dollar seemed to have performed well in the period under examination. In most cases, the currency was actually undervalued. When the Asian financial crisis broke out, the currency was in effect already in a process of adjustment, depreciating form an overvalued level.