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This paper investigates whether exchange rate changes have symmetric or asymmetric effects on international trade integration, using quarterly time series data from 1980: Q1 till 2018: Q2. The recent innovation in cointegration techniques allows us to estimate nonlinear effects. We apply both linear autoregressive distributed lags (ARDL) and nonlinear ARDL models. The empirical results indicate that asymmetric relationship exists between exchange rate (REER) and international trade integration (ITI) in the short-run as well as in the long-run, meaning that real effective exchange rate has negative and statistically significant effects on international trade integration. Robustness checks indicate no role of various crisis including GFC on the relationship between ITI and REER, however, regime change has significantly negative impact in short-run and positive in long-run on ITI. The results are important because when we separate currency appreciation from the depreciation, it has the significant and different effects on international trade integration.

In this research, we assess the influence of geopolitical risk (GPR), exchange rate (EXCH) and economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on South Korea stock market. Using monthly dataset covering the period from 1997 to 2021, we utilized the novel non-parametric causality-in-quantiles test initiated by Balcilar et al. (2017) to assess these associations. This study discovered that the effect of macroeconomic shocks in South Korea is diverse across the stock market, implying that the influence of these shocks is not consistent across the stock market in South Korea. Furthermore, this study revealed that the causal influence of EPU, GPR on the stock market is visible in mean and variance. Nonetheless, the causal influence of EXCH on the stock market can only be seen in the mean, with no indication of causation in the variance. We consider that these results are significant to South Korean stock market investors for the purposes of foreign portfolio diversification and establishing investing strategies during times of economic uncertainty.

This research has focused on examining the connection between uncertainties in economic policies and exchange rates. This research extends the literature to this field by analyzing the impact of small to large negative along with small to large positive variations in the economic policy uncertainty on the currency rates. For this purpose, this research uses the Granger causality in the quantile test and a newly constructed multiple asymmetric threshold nonlinear ARDL (MATNARDL) model. When a nonlinear ARDL model is utilized, our results confirmed the nonlinear impact in three nations only. In contrast, when the MATNARDL technique is utilized, these findings do confirm the nonlinear effect for all nations. Furthermore, when the Granger causality in the quantile test is applied, the impact differs over various quantiles. In general, the enhanced framework encourages us to analyze better how EPU affects the exchange rate in the emerging seven (E7) nations. The findings of our research may be useful for state banks to design policies to make interventions in the foreign currency market.

This study aims to empirically investigate the impact of a set of macroeconomic variables including balance of trade, FDI, exchange rate, and inflation on the balance of payments (BOP) of Afghanistan using quarterly data from the second quarter of 2004 to the fourth quarter of 2020 (2004Q2 to 2020Q4). The paper uses the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), and Johansen co-integration test for analysis to explore the BOP of Afghanistan and provides comparable literature to other least-developed and low-income developing countries. The findings reveal that balance of trade (BOT), foreign direct investment (FDI), and exchange rate are significant determinants of Afghanistan’s BOP in the long run. More specifically, BOT and FDI positively impact the BOP, whereas the effect of the exchange rate on the BOP is found negative. Yet, inflation has an insignificant impact on the BOP. Though all variables have an insignificant impact on the BOP in the short run, the relevant policy measures ought to consider improvement in BOT, promoting FDI, and exchange rate stability to ensure synchronized improved BOP and economic growth.

This paper investigates the determinants of crude oil in the world’s top five economies, including the USA, China, Germany, Japan and India. To examine the impact of the exchange rate, oil imports, oil demand by the commercial sector, oil demand by the transport sector, oil demand by the power sector, industrial production and oil inventory on crude oil prices of the top five economies have been studied from 1990 to 2020. We applied the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model for the analysis of the research. Panel results showed a significant impact of the exchange rate in the long and short run on crude oil prices. On the other hand, in case of Germany’s Industrial production, exchange rate, oil imports, and demand for oil by the power sectors have a significant effect on the prices of crude oil. In the case of India, industrial production, exchange rate, oil consumption, investment in oil, import of oil and demand for oil by the transport sectors have a significant effect on the prices of crude oil. In the case of the USA, crude oil inventories have a significant impact on crude oil prices in the long run. In the case of Japan’s exchange rate, oil consumption has a substantial effect on crude oil prices in both the long run and short run. We found that the exchange rate is the most significant factor which influences crude oil prices in all five countries.

This study investigates the dynamic relationship between exchange rates, oil prices, and stock prices in the Indian market, considering bearish, bullish, and neutral market states. By utilizing the Quantile ARDL method, we explore long- and short-run relationships in differing market states. The variations in sensitivities of oil prices and exchange rates with stock prices across diverse quantiles reflect significant variations in the Indian equity markets. Importantly, our study provides actionable insights for policymakers and stakeholders within India, empowering them with specific strategies for managing currency, stock prices, and oil prices under diverse market states. These insights are not just theoretical but directly applicable to real-world economic and financial decision-making, enhancing the ability of policymakers and stakeholders to navigate the complex Indian market.