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As the world is currently in turmoil, geopolitical crises and economic policy uncertainties are increasing significantly. This study aims to provide insight into the dynamics of time–frequency spillovers in the domains of crude oil, geopolitical risk, economic policy uncertainty and stock markets. It represents the first investigation analyzing the time-varying frequency connectedness across the aforementioned domains by adopting the time-varying parameter vector autoregression connectedness combined with the time-varying frequency connectedness measurement [Chatziantoniou et al., 2023]. The study covers the period from January 2004 to February 2023, including the 2008 financial crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic and the turmoil caused by the 2022 Russian–Ukrainian conflict. The analysis finds that short-term frequencies dominate return connectedness, indicating a rapid information processing mechanism responsive to short-run shocks. The stock market indices of oil-exporting countries, the US and the UK act as the primary transmitters of return spillovers. Volatility connectedness is driven by long-term frequencies, with Russia, Canada and the UK serving as the primary volatility spillover transmitters. Economic policy uncertainty is primarily influenced by oil-importing countries. Geopolitical risk mostly serves as the spillover receiver from crude oil, while it primarily transmits spillovers to economic policy uncertainty during major events such as terror attacks, conflicts and wars. The 2022 Russian–Ukrainian conflict amplifies spillovers to economic policy uncertainty. Intriguingly, conflicts deepen economic policy uncertainty, and prior to the conflict, stock market volatility had assimilated the influence of geopolitical risk shocks. The study also employs network topology to visualize spillover transmission mechanisms during the 2022 Russian–Ukrainian conflict.

This study draws upon the product space framework to examine the effects of export relatedness and import relatedness on complex product diversification. We use a sample of data for approximately 100 countries from 2002 to 2019, which covers the periods before, during and after the 2008 global financial crisis. We find that countries are likely to maintain a comparative advantage in their current products and develop a comparative advantage in new complex products that are strongly related to their present export structure. By contrast, the relatedness between new products and imports has a negative effect on complex product diversification with the exception of countries in East Asia and the Pacific, but this effect is weaker than that of export relatedness. These effects also vary among countries with different income levels and geographical regions. In addition, we find that the effects of both export relatedness and import relatedness on complex product diversification decreased after the 2008 global financial crisis, which means that the process of diversification of new complex products from related exports or imports slowed down in the post-financial crisis world.

In financial network models, to assess systemic risk, a general understanding and prediction of precisely how a single financial institution is associated with systemic risk from the network perspective remains lacking. This paper proposes a framework for predicting and assessing system crises through inferring the cause–effect relationships between financial institutions and system state, which is structured in three steps: the assessment stage for system state based on the mean-variance framework, the prediction stage based on a Bayesian network and the reliability stage based on the Markov process. By applying them to monthly returns of financial institutions, it implies the need to pay attention to insurance and Broker sectors while regulating the banking system on the Bayesian network theory. Moreover, we find that the measure contains predictive power both during tranquil periods and during financial crisis periods. The results can be applied to derive interventions in financial crisis management with regard to systemic risk prediction and system state reliability.

We examine the contribution of different lending channels to the auto loan market in times of crisis. Specifically, we explore lending from traditional banks, credit unions, and finance companies (nonbanks) over the past two decades, with an emphasis on the Great Recession and the COVID-19 pandemic. We find that banks provided weak support during the pandemic, thus losing market share and continuing the trend that emerged following the Great Recession. Nonbank market share during this period grew most significantly for subprime borrowers and in counties with stronger bank dependence. Survey evidence suggests that a tightening in banks’ lending standards may have contributed to this trend. These findings contrast with the experience during the Great Recession, when banks contributed the most resilient credit to the auto loan market. Our paper highlights nonbanks’ increasing role in the auto loan market in times of crisis, particularly for the subprime segment.

In this paper a local trade web (LTW) in the Asia-Pacific region is examined using the data derived from the United Nations and the International Monetary Fund. The topology of the LTW has been specified, based upon which the impacts of US financial crisis on the structural and behavior pattern of the LTW are further investigated. The major findings are given as follows. Firstly, the LTW is much more integrated than the global trade web; secondly, after the financial crisis, the fundamental structure of the network remains relatively stable but the strength of the web has been changed and the structure of the web has evolved over time. Economic implications for what have been observed are also discussed.

We have investigated the leverage effects of three major financial markets within a time frame from 2000 to 2012 throughout the 2008 financial crisis. First, dividing the considered time into four consecutive periods, we find the leverage effects of markets exhibiting similar pattern at various periods. Second, splitting the yield data into the positive-return and negative-return series, we find these two series always show anti-leverage effect. The anti-leverage effect of negative-return series usually dominates over the positive one, reflecting people at most times are more sensitive to bad news. However, we observe anomalous behavior in approaching the outbreak of crisis, where the positive-return series shows stronger anti-leverage effect, i.e. people become more sensitive to good news instead. Such phenomenology can persist till after the crisis for an immature market, as opposed to a mature market where it disappears before the end of crisis without external intervene. Our results afford insight into the micro-emotion of various financial markets swept through by the financial crisis.

Using a new dataset of Thai financial institutions, this paper analyzes the dynamics of productivity over the past decade (1989–1998), including the impact of the financial crisis of recent history. We find productivity increased substantially in the wake of Thailand's financial liberalization (1992–1996); this was followed by a precipitous fall during the crisis (1996–1997). To test the robustness several specifications are undertaken: four models (differing with respect to whether or not risk and deposits are included as inputs), and two frontiers (one where banks and finance companies are treated separately, the other where the data are pooled) are analyzed.

This paper first documents the rationales behind the transitional exchange rate system reform adopted by China on 21 July 2005. It then outlines the theory behind the medium- and long-term exchange rate arrangements that could be adopted. Thereafter, the paper provides recommendations on supplementary packages that could increase the chance of a successful reform, and increase China's immunity and resilience against financial crises in the future. Finally, the paper discusses the market and economic developments after the transitional reform, and highlights that failure to check the stock market bubble and rampant property inflation could turn the initial success of the reform to an eventual failure and bring disasters to China in the longer future.

We construct four market-specific Financial Stress Indices (FSIs) and overall FSIs for the ASEAN-5 economies from 1997 to 2009. Using the FSIs, we establish stylized features of financial stress and characterize the connectivity of financial markets. The results show that stress was most severe during the Asian Crisis, followed by the Tech Burst and the recent Global Crisis. Principal component analysis (PCA) demonstrates that regional connectivity is strongest in equity markets, implying their predominant role in the transmission of stress within the region. Meanwhile, Singapore possesses the lowest connectivity within the ASEAN cluster, but the highest to international markets.

The global financial crisis of 2008 challenges some relevant aspects of macroeconomic theory such as the neutrality of money. This paper shows that this neutrality is based on the unrealistic assumption of perfect competition. Relaxing this alone (without time lags, price rigidities, menu costs and other frictions) makes money no longer necessarily neutral and hence makes financial crises and institutions much more important. The presence of increasing returns to scale at the firm level and to specialization at the economy level due to the division of labor also makes finance much more important than suggested by traditional economics.

Using a quantile regression approach with a sample of Korean firms, this paper empirically investigates whether cash holding behaviors with the precautionary motive are different between Chaebol and non-Chaebol firms and they have changed before and after the financial crisis. We obtain the following empirical results. First, for non-Chaebol firms, the precautionary motive plays an important role in determining cash holdings throughout the sample period. In contrast, there is no empirical evidence supporting that Chaebol firms hold cash with the precautionary motive in the pre-crisis period: This motive becomes important only in the post-crisis period. Second Chaebol firms’ cash holdings with the precautionary motive are different from those of non-Chaebol firms in the pre-crisis period, but not in the post-crisis period. These imply that after experiencing financial crisis, Chaebol firms’ cash holding strategy has been changed substantially in a way to become more cautious in dealing with cash flow (CF) volatility.

This paper compares Denmark's growth performance to that of the other 18 non-Eurozone OECD economies during 2008–2013. Denmark is the only country with a fixed exchange-rate regime; all the other 18 countries have flexible exchange rates, mostly as part of an inflation-targeting (IT) framework. At the same time, Denmark is the worst growth performer of all. Our analysis indicates that the lack of monetary policy independence is central to understanding the meager Danish performance. Monetary easing during 2008–2009 is an important predictor of economic growth during 2008–2013, and Denmark, having outsourced monetary policy to the ECB, did not pursue monetary easing as aggressively as most other countries. In fact, the Danish Central Bank was forced to raise its policy interest rate in 2008Q4 in order to defend the euro-peg. Overall, the Danish experience serves as a reminder that fixed exchange rates can be quite taxing on economic growth in the aftermath of a huge negative shock.

Further to the author’s recommended transitory and medium-term exchange rate system reforms that was implemented in China since July 2005, this paper explains that: (1) a long-term reform towards a floating exchange rate system with free capital mobility will cause huge damages to the Chinese economy. It then proposes a long-term exchange rate system that would probably benefit China the most; and (2) there is a serious mistake in China’s latest exchange rate policy: The Chinese central bank has mistakenly allowed the renminbi exchange rate to rise with the strong rebound of the US dollar. This will cause not only a substantial drag in China’s export and GDP growth, but will also eventually make China’s financial and economic system vulnerable to a highly disruptive correction in the renminbi exchange rate.

This paper examines to what extent macroprudential policies in the Turkish banking sector affected the functioning of depositor discipline. Our results suggest that depositors’ responses for poor bank performance get stronger after the 2008 crisis, when various macroprudential measures were implemented to preserve financial stability. In the aftermath of the crisis, bank behavior toward depositors also alters. Ahead of the crisis, banks did not significantly respond to the discipline exerted by depositors, however, banks begin offering higher rates to curb deposit withdrawals afterwards. Our findings suggest that the implementation of macroprudential tools seem to have a positive impact on financial stability, since, in the post-2008 period, regulatory supervision have been more firmly assisted by the market.

We extend the work of Bernanke and Kuttner [(2005). What explains the stock market’s reaction to federal reserve policy? Journal of Finance, 60, 1221–1257] by examining the impact of monetary shocks and policy tools on aggregate stock returns as well as the stock returns of financial institutions during the recent period of quantitative easing (QE) in the US. Specially, we test for the effectiveness of a major non-conventional monetary policy tool, the use of special asset purchase programs by the Federal Reserve, in impacting the financial markets. Estimates from vector auto-regression (VAR) analyses show that the impact of both unexpected and expected monetary shocks on aggregate stock returns is magnified several times during periods of QE. In addition, traditional monetary policy tools, like the Federal Funds rate, have no impact on aggregate stock returns, neither leading up to, nor during QE, while our non-conventional policy measure does appear to have some impact. In an extension of our results, we find that unexpected monetary shocks have an increased marginal impact on the stock returns of financial firms during QE. In addition, the stock returns of financial institutions have significant reactions to both changes in non-conventional monetary policy tools and announcements surrounding non-conventional policy actions.

The global financial crisis that followed Lehman Brothers’ declaration of bankruptcy in September 2008 critically highlighted the significance of research on systemic risk and macro-prudential supervision. Accordingly, this paper mainly analyzed the relationship between financial crises and the article output in financial crisis research through the application of bibliometrics. The occurrence of a financial crisis leads to changes in the output of articles on crisis and risks. Hence, we focused on bibliographic coupling (e.g., co-authorship, co-occurrence), data classification by risk type in this study (e.g., market risk, credit risk) and citation analysis (e.g., top 1% cited paper). Meanwhile, the analysis indicated the most relevant disciplines in financial crisis research. For example, the number of top 1% cited articles and citations, MARKET RISK documents and citations published the most papers. In other words, the market risk is valued in the financial risk literature.

Six financial markets were verified contagious to Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite (SSEC): domestic equity market (SSEC and China COSCO Shipping Co.), domestic currency market, international currency market, global shipping market, commodity future market and bulk shipping market (BDI) which regarded as a leading indicator of future economic growth instead of Li Keqiang index. This research analyzed intermarket contagion from March 14, 2008 to March 31, 2018. MIDAS-GARCH model was adopted to identify the spillover effect among the Shanghai Stock market and inter-market indices. The findings of this study were concluded as follows: (1) The commodity, global shipping market had significant volatility transmission to SSEC both before and after the crash crisis. (2) The volatility of domestic currency market was significantly contagious to SSEC only after the crash.

Maintaining the stability of the financial system is of great significance to a country’s economic security, and accurate measurement of systemic financial risks is the basic premise. This paper selects nine important factor index data in China’s five markets, uses the credit weight method and extreme value method to construct a time-sensitive China financial stress index. It is concluded that the change of the financial stress index precedes the change of the economic development trend, which proves the guiding significance of constructing the stress index to economic development. Finally, reasonable suggestions were put forward to relevant departments.

With the speedy development of economy, there are many issues in business enterprise finance, and organization finance is going through large risks. With more and more complicated market environment, the uncertainty danger of business enterprise operation intensifies, and economic crises happen frequently. The monetary disaster of a company regularly shows that there can also be a complete crisis. Once the organization is deeply in economic crisis, it can also now not be capable to make certain the ordinary capital chain of the enterprise, and in serious cases, it may also have an effect on the sustainable operation of the agency or even make the employer bankrupt and liquidate. Therefore, we have to set up a best financial catastrophe early warning model to prevent and control the occurrence of economic disaster risk. BP neural network can, quite in shape nonlinear feature relationship, have true gaining knowledge of adaptability, excessive parallel computing and statistics processing ability. In view of the actual state of affairs of commercial enterprise, business enterprise and economic risk, the BP neural community algorithm is used to predict agency financial risk and a hazard prediction model in particular primarily based on BP neural community is established. The simulation consequences exhibit that the accuracy and correctness of economic hazard conduct early warning primarily based on BP neural network are 91.51% and 95.28%, respectively. It is proved that the fast-warning approach of economic threat that is conducted primarily based on BP neural network has excessively taken a look at the accuracy and robust cognizance ability.

In this paper, the generalized Hurst exponent is used to investigate multifractal properties of historical volatility (CHV) in stock market price and return series before, during and after 2008 financial crisis. Empirical results from NASDAQ, S&P500, TSE, CAC40, DAX, and FTSE stock market data show that there is strong evidence of multifractal patterns in HV of both price and return series. In addition, financial crisis deeply affected the behavior and degree of multifractality in volatility of Western financial markets at price and return levels.