Narrow Results

We evaluate to what extent the temperature rise in the past 100 years was a trend or a natural fluctuation and analyze 2249 worldwide monthly temperature records from GISS (NASA) with the 100-year period covering 1906–2005 and the two 50-year periods from 1906 to 1955 and 1956 to 2005. No global records are applied. The data document a strong urban heat island effect (UHI) and a warming with increasing station elevation. For the period 1906–2005, we evaluate a global warming of 0.58°C as the mean for all records. This decreases to 0.41°C if restricted to stations with a population of less than 1000 and below 800 meter above sea level. About a quarter of all the records for the 100-year period show a fall in temperatures. Our hypothesis for the analysis is, as generally in the papers concerned with long-term persistence of temperature records, that the observed temperature records are a combination of long-term correlated records with an additional trend, which is caused for instance by anthropogenic CO₂, the UHI or other forcings. We apply the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) and evaluate Hurst exponents between 0.6 and 0.65 for the majority of stations, which is in excellent agreement with the literature and use a method only recently published, which is based on DFA, synthetic records and Monte Carlo simulation. As a result, the probabilities that the observed temperature series are natural have values roughly between 40% and 90%, depending on the stations characteristics and the periods considered. "Natural" means that we do not have within a defined confidence interval a definitely positive anthropogenic contribution and, therefore, only a marginal anthropogenic contribution cannot be excluded.

This study is focused on the effects of cosmic rays (solar activity) and halogen-containing molecules (mainly chlorofluorocarbons — CFCs) on atmospheric ozone depletion and global climate change. Brief reviews are first given on the cosmic-ray-driven electron-induced-reaction (CRE) theory for O₃ depletion and the warming theory of halogenated molecules for climate change. Then natural and anthropogenic contributions to these phenomena are examined in detail and separated well through in-depth statistical analyses of comprehensive measured datasets of quantities, including cosmic rays (CRs), total solar irradiance, sunspot number, halogenated gases (CFCs, CCl₄ and HCFCs), CO₂, total O₃, lower stratospheric temperatures and global surface temperatures. For O₃ depletion, it is shown that an analytical equation derived from the CRE theory reproduces well 11-year cyclic variations of both polar O₃ loss and stratospheric cooling, and new statistical analyses of the CRE equation with observed data of total O₃ and stratospheric temperature give high linear correlation coefficients ≥ 0.92. After the removal of the CR effect, a pronounced recovery by 20 ~ 25 % of the Antarctic O₃ hole is found, while no recovery of O₃ loss in mid-latitudes has been observed. These results show both the correctness and dominance of the CRE mechanism and the success of the Montreal Protocol. For global climate change, in-depth analyses of the observed data clearly show that the solar effect and human-made halogenated gases played the dominant role in Earth's climate change prior to and after 1970, respectively. Remarkably, a statistical analysis gives a nearly zero correlation coefficient (R = -0.05) between corrected global surface temperature data by removing the solar effect and CO₂ concentration during 1850–1970. In striking contrast, a nearly perfect linear correlation with coefficients as high as 0.96–0.97 is found between corrected or uncorrected global surface temperature and total amount of stratospheric halogenated gases during 1970–2012. Furthermore, a new theoretical calculation on the greenhouse effect of halogenated gases shows that they (mainly CFCs) could alone result in the global surface temperature rise of ~0.6°C in 1970–2002. These results provide solid evidence that recent global warming was indeed caused by the greenhouse effect of anthropogenic halogenated gases. Thus, a slow reversal of global temperature to the 1950 value is predicted for coming 5 ~ 7 decades. It is also expected that the global sea level will continue to rise in coming 1 ~ 2 decades until the effect of the global temperature recovery dominates over that of the polar O₃ hole recovery; after that, both will drop concurrently. All the observed, analytical and theoretical results presented lead to a convincing conclusion that both the CRE mechanism and the CFC-warming mechanism not only provide new fundamental understandings of the O₃ hole and global climate change but have superior predictive capabilities, compared with the conventional models.

Lu's "cosmic-ray-driven electron-induced reaction (CRE) theory" is based on the assumption that the CRE reaction of halogenated molecules (e.g., chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), HCl, ClONO₂) adsorbed or trapped in polar stratospheric clouds in the winter polar stratosphere is the key step in forming photoactive halogen species that are the cause of the springtime ozone hole. This theory has been extended to a warming theory of halogenated molecules for climate change. In this comment, we discuss the chemical and physical foundations of these theories and the conclusions derived from the theories. First, it is unclear whether the loss rates of halogenated molecules induced by dissociative electron attachment (DEA) observed in the laboratory can also be interpreted as atmospheric loss rates, but even if this were the case, the impact of DEA-induced reactions on polar chlorine activation and ozone loss in the stratosphere is limited. Second, we falsify several conclusions that are reported on the basis of the CRE theory: There is no polar ozone loss in darkness, there is no apparent 11-year periodicity in polar total ozone measurements, the age of air in the polar lower stratosphere is much older than 1–2 years, and the reported detection of a pronounced recovery (by about 20–25%) in Antarctic total ozone measurements by the year 2010 is in error. There are also conclusions about the future development of sea ice and global sea level which are fundamentally flawed because Archimedes' principle is neglected. Many elements of the CRE theory are based solely on correlations between certain datasets which are no substitute for providing physical and chemical mechanisms causing a particular behavior noticeable in observations. In summary, the CRE theory cannot be considered as an independent, alternative mechanism for polar stratospheric ozone loss and the conclusions on recent and future surface temperature and global sea level change do not have a physical basis.

In their Comment, Müller and Grooß continuously use problematic "observed data" and misleading arguments to make a case against our CRE mechanism of the ozone hole and CFC-warming mechanism of global climate change. They make the groundless assertion that the CRE theory cannot be considered as an independent process for ozone loss in the polar stratosphere. Their claim that the impact of the CRE mechanism on polar chlorine activation and ozone loss in the stratosphere would be limited does not agree with the observed data over the past decades. They also make many contradictory and fact-distorting arguments that "There is no polar ozone loss in darkness, there is no apparent 11-year periodicity in polar total ozone measurements, the age of air in the polar lower stratosphere is much older than 1–2 years, and the reported detection of a pronounced recovery (by about 20–25%) in Antarctic total ozone measurements by the year 2010 is in error." These assertions ignore and contradict a great deal of robust observed data from both laboratory and field measurements reported in the literature including their own publications. Their new argument for the photodissociation of CFCs on PSCs also contradicts their previous extraordinary efforts including the use of fabricated "ACE-FTS satellite data" to argue for no physical/chemical loss of CFCs in the winter lower polar stratosphere. Finally, they do not provide any scientific evidence to support their criticism for the no physical basis of the CFC-warming theory and its conclusions. In summary, their misleading arguments and false "data" do not change the convincing conclusion reached by robust observations in my recent paper that both the CRE mechanism and the CFC-warming mechanism not only provide new fundamental understandings of the O₃ hole and global climate change but have superior predictive capabilities, compared with the conventional models.

Lu (2013) (L13) argued that solar effects and anthropogenic halogenated gases can explain most of the observed warming of global mean surface air temperatures since 1850, with virtually no contribution from atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentrations. Here we show that this conclusion is based on assumptions about the saturation of the CO₂-induced greenhouse effect that have been experimentally falsified. L13 also confuses equilibrium and transient response, and relies on data sources that have been superseeded due to known inaccuracies. Furthermore, the statistical approach of sequential linear regression artificially shifts variance onto the first predictor. L13's artificial choice of regression order and neglect of other relevant data is the fundamental cause of the incorrect main conclusion. Consideration of more modern data and a more parsimonious multiple regression model leads to contradiction with L13's statistical results. Finally, the correlation arguments in L13 are falsified by considering either the more appropriate metric of global heat accumulation, or data on longer timescales.

In the Comment by Nuccitelli et al., they make many false and invalid criticisms of the CFC-warming theory in my recent paper, and claim that their anthropogenic forcings including CO₂ would provide a better explanation of the observed global mean surface temperature (GMST) data over the past 50 years. First, their arguments for no significant discrepancy between modeled and observed GMST changes and for no pause in recent global warming contradict the widely accepted fact and conclusion that were reported in the recent literature extensively. Second, their criticism that the key data used in my recent paper would be "outdated" and "flawed" is untrue as these data are still used in the recent or current literature including the newest (2013) IPCC Report and there is no considerable difference between the UK Met Office HadRCUT3 and HadRCUT4 GMST datasets. The use of even more recently computer-reconstructed total solar irradiance data (whatever have large uncertainties) for the period prior to 1976 would not change any of the conclusions in my paper, where quantitative analyses were emphasized on the influences of humans and the Sun on global surface temperature after 1970 when direct measurements became available. For the latter, the solar effect has been well shown to play only a negligible role in global surface temperature change since 1970, which is identical to the conclusion made in the 2013 IPCC Report. Third, their argument that the solar effect would not play a major role in the GMST rise of 0.2°C during 1850–1970 even contradicts the data and conclusion presented in a recent paper published in their Skeptical Science by Nuccitelli himself. Fourth, their comments also indicate their lack of understandings of the basic radiation physics of the Earth system as well as of the efficacies of different greenhouse gases in affecting global surface temperature. Their listed "methodological errors" are either trivial or non-existing. Fifth, their assertion that "the climate system takes centuries to millennia to fully equilibrate" is lack of scientific basis. Finally, their model calculations including an additional fitting parameter do not reduce the discrepancy with observed GMST data even after their adjustments. Instead, their modeled results give a sharp GMST rise over the past 16 years, which obviously disagrees with the observed data.

Black carbon, a part of harmful PM2.5 air pollution, is the second largest contributor to global warming. Due to per unit of mass, black carbon has a warming impact on climate 460–1,500 times stronger than CO₂. UNEP emphasizes that the black carbon issue is more urgent than CO₂ now. Unfortunately, current technologies cannot help large factories in preventing emission of black carbon particles into air because they fail to catch them effectively. Therefore, a new technology, which can catch black carbon and other PM2.5 pollution effectively, is critically needed. Here we report that electrorheology is the solution we are looking for. Under a strong electric field, black carbon and other particles are polarized. When the polluted air flow becomes a special flow with pollution particles moving adjacent to the electrodes, black carbon and other particles are captured by the electrodes effectively. Our tests have confirmed that with this technology, more than 98% black carbon and other PM2.5 particles can be caught. Moreover, this technology is not only suitable as incoming air filters, but also appropriate for large factories in preventing emitting black carbon and pollution into air. We hope that electrorheology will improve our environment and reduce global warming effectively.

Global warming is becoming a big concern for the environment since it is causing serious and often unexpected impacts on species, affecting their abundance, genetic composition, behavior and survival. So, the modeling study is necessary to investigate the effects of global warming in predator–prey dynamics. This research paper analyzed the memory effect evaluated by Caputo fractional derivative on predator–prey interaction using an exponential fear function with a Holling-type II function in the presence of global warming effect on prey and predator species. It is assumed that the densities of prey and predator species decrease due to the increase of global warming. It is considered that both prey and predator species are contributing to the increase of global warming. Also, it is considered that global warming is increasing constantly and decreasing due to the natural decay rate. All possible equilibria of the system are determined, and the stability of the system around all equilibria points is investigated. Around the interior equilibrium point, the Hopf bifurcation is also theoretically and numerically studied. A number of numerical simulation results are presented to demonstrate the impacts of fear, fractional order and global warming on the behavior of the model. It is observed that the global warming effect on predator species may destabilize the system but ultimately the system may become stable. Again, it is obtained that the natural decay rate of global warming can stabilize the system initially but a higher decay rate may destabilized the system. It is also found that the fractional-order model is determined to be more stable than the integer-order model.

We can limit the future temperature impact of climate change in two ways: (i) reducing our use of CO2 emitting fuels as an energy source (abatement), and (ii) using negative emission technologies (NETs) to remove existing CO2 from the atmosphere (removal). Using a modification of the DICE model, we analyze the optimal use of these two policy responses to climate change. After calibrating the marginal costs of abatement and CO2 removal to the latest scientific information, we find that carbon removal must play a very large role in an optimal policy. If this policy is followed, we find that the Paris-Agreement 1.5–2^∘C warming by 2100 target is not just aspirational, but optimal. When an important role is played by NETs to control global warming, the decrease in carbon emissions can be more gradual, reducing transition risk and social dislocations. We examine the impact on the economy of large-scale carbon removal programs, the potential for moral hazard and the logistical problems associated with the storage of the removed carbon.

An Introduction to the Functional Genomics Program at KAIST.

United Nations and China to Jointly Set Up Bio-pharmaceutical Industrial Park.

Taiwan to Host APEC 2002 Biotech Symposium.

Thailand Expects Sugar Output to Drop This Year.

Taiwan Hopes to Echo IT Success in Biotech.

Rice Research: The Way Forward.

Indian Pharma Companies Expected to Increase R&D Spending.

Australian Team Working on Hendra and Nipah Viruses.

Saffron Industry Crisis.

Japan and Israel in Biotech R&D Cooperation.

Korea Makes a Mark in Biotechnological Sectors.

Global Warming Reports Results Dire.

AUSTRALIA – First iPS Cell Line Puts Australia in the Lead of Stem Cell Research.

AUSTRALIA – New Treatment Hope for Prostate Cancer.

CHINA – AIDS Is China's Top Killer Among Infectious Diseases.

CHINA – Anti-bird Flu Drug for Human Clinical Trial Approved by China.

CHINA – China Plans 120 Billion Dollar Health Reform By 2011.

CHINA – 13 000 Fowl Culled in China After Bird flu.

CHINA – China-Russia Joint Research Center.

CHINA – Pig's Adult Stem Cells Produce Better Skins.

CHINA – More Health Scares Amid Slowdown, Warns China.

INDIA – Indian Experts Find Bacteria to Beat Global Heat.

INDIA – Two Indian Firms to set up Pre-clinical Trial Units in Malaysia.

JAPAN – Breakthrough in Universal Flu Vaccine Development.

SINGAPORE – Taiwan Pork Banned by AVA.

SINGAPORE – Stem-Cell Treatment For Joint Pain Gives New Hope.

SINGAPORE – Next Generation Healthcare Information System.

SINGAPORE – Top US University Sets up Research Centre in Singapore.

SINGAPORE – Increase in Life-saving Umbilical Cord Donations.

SINGAPORE – Singapore and China Scientists Report Breakthrough Research in Psoriasis.

SOUTH KOREA – Harmful Bacteria in French Baby Formula.

SOUTH KOREA – World's First Cloned Wolves to Test Reproductive Fitness.

TAIWAN – Genetic Testing on the Rise.

TAIWAN – Chinese Herbal Medicines Contain Western Drug Ingredients.

VIETNAM – Bird Flu Strikes in Five Provinces in Vietnam.

VIETNAM – Opening of Vietnam's First Stem Cell Bank, "MekoStem".

VIETNAM – Hanoi Suffers Worst Measles Outbreak in Decade.

OTHER REGIONS — EUROPE – Social Networking = Disease?

OTHER REGIONS — EUROPE – Cancer Morbidity 'to Double in 40 Years'.

OTHER REGIONS — NORTH AMERICA – Scientists Close in on 'Universal' Vaccine for Flu.

OTHER REGIONS — NORTH AMERICA – Hong Kong and US Scientists Develop New Bird Flu Vaccine.

WuXi NextCODE Selected as Genomics Platform for Singapore Precision Medicine Effort.

Chinese Scientists Reveal Why Giant Pandas and Red Pandas Evolve to Eat Bamboo.

Two Scientists Share China’s Top Science Award.

Vice Premier Liu Urged to Accelerate Innovation-driven Development in China.

New Study Analyses Biggest Threats to Southeast Asian Biodiversity.

Mercury Pollution May Worsen with Melting Glaciers.

Water Tower of Central Asia Keeps Shrinking.

China Donates Mobile Clinics to Kenya.

Global Exchange Program Looks to Spur Scientific Collaboration.

China Establishes Technological Cooperation with 158 Countries.

Scientists Discover Molecular Mechanism of Cancer Cell Metastasis in Melanoma.

HONG KONG NEWS – OrbusNeich Expands Portfolio with a Next Generation Coronary Scoring Balloon.

The future of pharma: Digital, personalized, and dynamic.

Using real world evidence in the development of new medicine.

Hunting for new drugs to treat mental illness.

Clean cow starts now.

The following topics are under this section:

• Open Source AI-Powered Tool by Tencent for COVID-19 Preliminary Self Evaluation
• The Effort to Measure Black Carbon in Antarctica
• Visualizing Core-Shell Formation by in situ Liquid Cell TEM
• Novel Strategy to Create 2D Magnetic Order
• Solid-State Photosensitizer for Singlet Oxygen Generation
• Warming Arctic Mitigates Global Warming
• Self-Activation Loop Maintains Stem Cells for Plant Branching
• Graphene-based Actuator Swarm Enables Programmable Complex Deformation
• Optimal Egg Consumption to Lower Risk of Cardiovascular Disease

Global warming refers to the long-term heating of the earth, including melting of the glaciers and the expected rise in seawater level that could threaten a large number of areas and communities around the world. Social media has a big influence on people’s perception and understanding of environmental issues and challenges. In this study, we examine the impact of misinformation and social noise on people’s perception of global warming during critical environmental events. The study used data analytic techniques such as sentiment analysis and topic modelling to assess the level of objectivity and subjectivity in the discussion about global warming and examine the presence of certain topics that fit the definition of social noise and misinformation. Data collection was limited to the hashtag “global warming” captured during the months there was a spike in global warming tweets during the period from 2012-2022. The results from the sentiment analysis have shown a 62.46% subjectivity score compared to 37.54% objectivity score, indicating that most of the tweets posted were based on users’ personal opinion and perception of global warming. Topic modelling showed a prevalence of social noise in the tweets indicating the presence of social noise and thus aids in understanding the factors that lead to misinformation creation. The presence of social noise questions the credibility of the tweets and its contents.

Human ingenuity will play an ever-important role in this century and into the foreseeable future. This is because of phenomena such as globalization and climate-change that stress the need for more innovative output from developed countries. Such a picture has made it necessary to develop reliable models for quantifying innovations. The huge momentum behind the need for quantifying innovations is brought out by the research efforts of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and the United-States (US) government, which are at the forefront of the modeling activities required for this task. This effort describes some approaches, and the resulting models, for scoring individual innovations. Most of these approaches quantify innovations by considering their ensuing societal impact. In the course of this process, numerous variables have been identified that might have a significant influence from a scoring perspective. This work is the first portion of a research effort that addresses the theoretical background needed for quantifying innovations. The empirical results will follow up in a later work.

This paper builds an econometric model that attempts to explain the effect of global trade on the environment from data provided by the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) at Purdue University. We estimated stable parameters for econometric models to forecast the impact of doubling carbon dioxide (2 × CO₂) levels in the atmosphere. Robustness is checked against the Specific Factor Model in trade theory. The overall and zonal predictions for the lower and higher latitudes and the Northern and Southern Hemispheres are compared with the norms. The estimates of the model are also used as inputs into several computable general equilibrium (CGE) models to explore regional welfare impacts by climate change scenarios. The model's prediction comes within range of the norms and therefore, should be an important addition to the stock of pedagogic tools explaining the relationship between trade and the environment.

While climate change has become an important concern at both regional and global levels, its inherent uncertainties have often been cited as the main reason for delaying many actions to mitigate its potential impacts. Reviews of environmental assessments (EAs) have shown that impacts from climate change have been inadequately addressed within them and that the corresponding uncertainties have been addressed even more poorly. This paper describes several basic approaches for addressing and analysing climate change within the EAs of individual projects with a focus on its uncertainties. Subsequently, the paper describes how the results from this analysis can be effectively and comprehensively communicated to the EA's disparate set of technical and non-technical decision-makers and stakeholders. Based upon this overall approach, the paper proposes a general set of guidelines that enables proponents to incorporate climate change and its uncertainties into project EAs.

Mitigation of the enhanced greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations in the Earth’s atmosphere is imperative to meet the climate change mitigation objective. Governments of many countries are developing and implementing various mitigation strategies to reduce their GHG emissions. However, a time delay between the formulation and implementation of these mitigation policies can affect their effectiveness in controlling greenhouse gas levels in the atmosphere. This work presents black a nonlinear mathematical model to investigate the effect of application of mitigation strategies and the delay involved in their implementation over the reduction of atmospheric greenhouse gases. In model formulation, it is assumed that the mitigation strategies work two-fold; first they black reduce the GHG emission rate from the anthropogenic source and second they increase the black removal rate of greenhouse gas from the atmosphere. black A comprehensive stability analysis of the proposed model system is made to examine its long-term behavior. The model analysis shows that an increase in the implementation rate of mitigation strategies and their efficiencies to cut down the GHG emission rate from point sources and increase the GHG uptake rate lead to reduction in equilibrium GHG concentration. It is found that a long delay in the execution of mitigation policies can destabilize the system dynamics and leads to the generation of periodic oscillations. The expression for the threshold value of the delay parameter at which periodic oscillations arise via Hopf-bifurcation is determined. The stability and direction of bifurcating periodic solutions are discussed. A sensitivity analysis is performed to investigate the effect of changes in key parameters over system dynamics.