Narrow Results

This paper examines whether broader money supply (M2) and interest rate as two monetary policy tools may have differently affected housing prices in China. Empirical results show that there is a co-movement between housing prices and M2 in the short run and it becomes more pronounced after 2006 in the medium run. In addition, generally M2 positively affects housing prices. This supports the asset price channel which indicates that an easing monetary policy offers ample liquidity and results in raising the housing prices. The excess liquidity after 2008 spread to housing market, resulting in too much money chasing relatively few assets and triggering a surge in housing prices. On the other hand, we observe that co-movement between housing prices and interest rate is not very evident in most time. Moreover, we find that interest rate has a positive effect on housing prices which is not consistent with the user cost approach and indicates that a contracting monetary policy is not effective in curbing housing market. Not completely liberalized interest rate system and the high return on housing investments reduce the impact of interest rate on housing prices. These findings indicate that money supply is more effective than interest rate as channel to control the housing prices in China. The results are helpful for the scientific formulation of monetary policy for reasonable regulation of the market.

This paper examines the long-term as well as short-term equilibrium relationships between the major stock indices and selected macroeconomic variables (such as money supply and interest rate) of Singapore and the United States by employing the advanced time series analysis techniques that include cointegration, Johansen multivariate cointegrated system, fractional cointegration and Granger causality. The cointegration results based on data covering the period January 1982 to December 2002 suggest that Singapore's stock prices generally display a long-run equilibrium relationship with interest rate and money supply (M1) but a similar relationship does not hold for the United States. To capture the short-run dynamics of the relationship, we replicate the same experiments with different subsets of data representing shorter time periods. It is evident that stock markets in Singapore moved in tandem with interest rate and money supply before the Asian Crisis of 1997, but this pattern was not observed after the crisis. In the United States, stock prices were strongly cointegrated with macroeconomic variables before the 1987 equity crisis but the relationships gradually weakened and totally disappeared with the emergence of Asian Crisis that also indirectly affected the United States. The results of fractional cointegration and the Johansen multivariate system are consistent with the earlier cointegration results that both Singapore and US stock markets did possess equilibrium relationships with M1 and interest rate at the early days. However, the stability of the systems was disturbed by a series of well-known financial turbulence in the past two decades and eventually weakened for Singapore and completely disappeared for the US. This may imply that monetary authority may take action to respond to the asset price turbulence in order to maintain the stability of monetary economy and thus break the existing equilibrium between stock markets and macroeconomic variables like interest rate and M1. Another possible explanation is that the market became more efficient after 1997 Asian crisis. Finally, the results of Granger causality tests uncover some systematic causal relationships, implying that stock market performance might be a good gauge for Central Bank's monetary policy adjustment.

Asymmetric information increases the credit rationing of micro-enterprises. Lender–borrower relationships help to provide this information, thereby increasing the availability of loans. This study aims to investigate the relationship between micro-lenders and micro clients. It is accomplished by describing how such relationships are developed, and analyzing these relationships’ impact on the availability and credit term using multivariate regression. The results showed that the strength of lender–borrower relationships positively impacted credit access, but it did not significantly impact the credit term. Furthermore, the amount of income and loan purpose, as the proxies of business characteristics, negatively impacted credit access. These results highlight the critical role of the lender–borrower relationship and business characteristics in the risk management strategy and the sustainability of microfinance institutions.

Many economists believe that federal government's budget deficits result in higher interest rates. This increase in interest rates can stifle private investment and impede the real rate of economic growth for the economy. This paper examines the potential impact of federal budget deficits on long-term interest rates for corporate bonds. The study is based on post-war annual US data, and employs a standard demand-supply model. The empirical results in our study provide evidence that the increasing budget deficits lead to higher interest rate for corporate bonds. In this regard, our study supports arguments for the crowding out theory.

The study attempts to evaluate the impact of short-term real interest rate on growth rate in India in a liberalized financial and trade regime (March 1993 to March 2005). Using ARDL approach to cointegration of Pesaran and Shin (1999), the study finds that interest rate does not have a direct impact; rather, it may have an indirect and adverse impact on growth rate through the transmission channel of bank credit, thereby neither supporting the arguments advocated by Keynesians nor the explanations offered by the proponents of Financial Liberalization School. This incredible result may be attributed to the poor quality of credit disbursal of the banking system in India or low credit offtake for productive investment purposes as investment, an important determinant of economic growth, is governed by several other factors.

This paper empirically investigates the relationship among the tax evasion and local disposal income, unemployment rate and demographic variables by using 20 municipalities in Taiwan with the official interior, latest, and wider range of panel data over the period from 1998 to 2011. The main findings support the positive impact of disposal income on tax evasion, while unemployment rate has a negative impact. Among the interest rate effect models, if policy-makers want to hinder the extension of tax evasion, they should reduce the interest rate. Furthermore, government not only applies fiscal policy but also applies monetary policy for improving tax evasion. In our regional effect model, we have found evidence on a positive impact of the demographic structure variables on tax evasion except social expenditure of local government. We have also found clear evidence on the positive impact in South and East areas on tax evasion in the regional effect model. Moreover, both interest rate and regional factors have an influence on tax evasion.

The aim of this paper is to create a platform for developing an interface between the mathematical theory of reliability and the mathematics of finance. This we are able to do because there exists an isomorphic relationship between the survival function of reliability, and the asset pricing formula of fixed income investments. This connection suggests that the exponentiation formula of reliability theory and survival analysis be reinterpreted from a more encompassing perspective, namely, as the law of a diminishing resource. The isomorphism also helps us to characterize the asset pricing formula in non-parametric classes of functions, and to obtain its crossing properties. The latter provides bounds and inequalities on investment horizons. More generally, the isomorphism enables us to expand the scope of mathematical finance and of mathematical reliability by importing ideas and techniques from one discipline to the other. As an example of this interchange we consider interest rate functions that are determined up to an unknown constant so that the set-up results in a Bayesian formulation. We may also model interest rates as “shot-noise processes”, often used in reliability, and conversely, the failure rate function as a Lévy process, popular in mathematical finance. A consideration of the shot noise process for modelling interest rates appears to be new.

This paper investigates the factors that interact with interest rates. The results show that interest rates positively correlate with deviations in inflation, the logarithm of the real GDP (gross domestic product) ratio, the logarithm of the money supply ratio, deviations in unemployment rates, money velocity, deficit, and the dollar index. The interest rates negatively correlate with debt, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), debt to GDP ratio, and real GDP growth rate. Regression analysis shows with statistical significance an increase in interest rates with deviations in inflation, money velocity, the dollar index, and a decrease with the DJIA. The analysis is refined by removing insignificant variables and addressing a multicollinearity problem. The results could provide governments and central banks with focal points for developing interest rate policies.

Considering 11 major Asian migrant sending countries during 1975–2012, the study explores the factors that motivate migrants to remit their earnings to home countries. Using panel regressions, it finds that it is primarily the growth rate and interest rate differentials between the home and host, the household consumption and financial sector development at home along with per capita income of host countries which lead to remittances inflows. It concludes that it is not only the altruistic (or consumption) and higher interest income motives; but also the patriotic motives reflected from significant impact of past remittances, are crucial factors of such flows.

This research employs VAR models, impulse response function, forecast error variance decomposition and bivariate GJR GARCH models, to explore the dynamic relationship between foreign investment and the MSCI Taiwan Index (MSCI–TWI). The estimations of the VAR, impulse-response functions and predicted error variance decomposition tests show that stronger feedback effects exist between net foreign investment and MSCI–TWI. In particular, our results demonstrate that the MSCI–TWI has the greatest influence over the decision-making processes of foreign investors. Also, we see that exchange rates exert a negative influence on both net foreign investment dollars and the MSCI–TWI. In addition, US–Taiwan interest rate difference has a positive influence on net foreign investment dollars and a negative influence on the MSCI–TWI. As for asymmetric own-volatility transmission, negative shocks in the MSCI–TWI tend to create greater volatility for itself in the following period than positive shocks. Our research indicates an asymmetric information transmission mechanism from net foreign investment to MSCI–TWI markets. Moreover, the estimated correlation coefficient shows that MSCI–TWI and net foreign investment dollar have a positive contemporaneous correlation.

Most small businesses face uncertain demand for their products and services. The revenue they earn is most likely to be of stochastic nature. They face difficulties in making a fixed loan repayment throughout the life of the loan as they earn stochastic revenues. If banks are to lend to this market using the fixed loan repayment schedule/regime, it is highly likely that these businesses will default on their repayments several times in period $n$. If default rate is high in a loan portfolio, it means that the bank has to set up a higher bad loan provision, thereby tying up its capital. This reduces the lending business, profitability and growth of the financial institution. This is one of the reasons why financial institutions perceive these small businesses as a high risk market. Only financial institutions with a very high risk appetite will tap into this market. We are proposing revenue-based lending as a solution to the problem. Stochastic repayments will reduce periodic defaults. This reduction in periodic defaults will reduce the bad loan provision thereby making more funds available for lending. We want to show that the bad loan provision for the bank will be higher for a fixed loan repayment compared to the stochastic loan repayment.