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  • articleNo Access

    Estimation of Climate Change Impact on Storm Surges: Application to Korean Peninsula

    The present study assesses the climate change impact on local storm surges along the coasts of the Korean Peninsula and Tottori Prefecture, Japan. A series of storm surge simulations are conducted on a physical process-based storm surge model using direct forcing from general circulation model output data in the two periods of 1979–2008 and 2075–2099. It is found that the typhoon intensity is enhanced and its number increases under the future climate condition in the area of the Korean Peninsula (32 to 40 N and 120 to 138 E). In addition, the typhoon approach course moves by 0.523 westward in the future climate. From a series of storm surge simulations, the statistical analysis showed that the climate change influences the storm surge height regionally and locally; it decreases on the west coast of the Korean Peninsula in the future, whereas it increases on the south coast of the Korean Peninsula and on the coast of Tottori Prefecture, Japan.

  • articleOpen Access

    Anticipating the Biden Doctrine for the Korean Peninsula

    Since the Biden administration took office, its approach and strategy for domestic and foreign affairs have become the focus of global attention. The new administration’s policy toward the Korean Peninsula is one of the most heatedly debated subjects among policymakers and pundits. The past four years have seen major changes in regional security architecture, the most noticeable of which are dynamics on the Korean Peninsula and intensified China-U.S. strategic rivalry. In this context, a comprehensive overhaul of Mr. Trump’s approach to global affairs is expected under a Democratic administration staffed with foreign policy veterans, and the Korean Peninsula policy will be among the most consequential decisions for Biden’s White House. President Biden’s policy toward Pyongyang will be substantially different from Trump’s approach. A bottom-up, incremental model is likely to replace Trump’s personalized diplomacy marked by flashy summit meetings and “love letters.” Existing sanctions will be maintained until the Biden administration sees substantive results regarding the North’s nuclear and missile arsenal. While keeping up the pressure to coerce Pyongyang back to the negotiating table, President Biden is expected to respond more proactively to Kim Jong-un’s overtures or “provocations” and place a high premium on policy reciprocity. The Biden team will elevate the role of Seoul and Tokyo in its strategic planning and increase trilateral coordination and consultation. Stiff competition is more likely to hinder China-U.S. coordination on the Peninsula. The tone, substance, and results of diplomatic engagement between Beijing and Washington over the nuclear issue in the early days of the new administration will give a foretaste of what could ensue on the Peninsula. Positive initial interactions may generate broader implications for China-U.S. relations, regional stability, and global security at large.

  • chapterNo Access

    23. EFFECTS OF OCEAN ENVIRONMENTS UPON STORM SURGE AROUND KOREAN PENINSULA

    Storm surge is influenced by many factors including environmental and geographical conditions. However, laboratory experiments and filed measurements were not easy to carry due to danger and difficulties. In this study, we conducted a numerical study with a verified storm surge model. Storm surge was impacted by track, tide, water depth and sea level rise. The track of storm is related to size of storm and the range of impact could be estimated by their relationship. One of the characteristics on storm surge is that storm surge is strongly affected by water depth and surface elevation. We found that variation of storm surge could be different at each tide and depth and it makes a big difference in the western sea of Korean Peninsula whose averaged depth is about 40 m and tidal range is about 10 m. An increasing sea level rise by climate change can cause a little reduction of storm surge by its own characteristics.