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The rise of China has become a central debate in the academic field of international relations. In the Western world, the scholars within this debate can roughly be divided into the ‘pessimists’ and the ‘optimists’. The pessimists see in the rise of China an inevitable hegemonic war, or at least prolonged and intense zero-sum competition, with the US as it will seek to replace the latter and overturn the existing liberal international order. The optimists, on the other hand, see an opportunity for sustained Western dominance through selective accommodation of China in exchange for China’s acceptance of the existing norms and values of the liberal international order and continued US dominance. In this paper, we maintain that both perspectives in the debate are misleading. We argue that China seeks to push for a multipolarized world rather than replacing the US, and that Beijing prefers the relations between the great powers within a multipolar order to be based on the conception of a ‘community of common destiny for humankind’. We also argue that China is unlikely to accept the existing norms and values of the liberal international order as they reflect and reinforce Western dominance. Rather, China has become an ‘order-shaper’ seeking to reform the existing institutions to better reflect the interests of the ‘Rest’, and establish new networks and institutions that will complement and augment the existing arrangements of the liberal international order, instead of challenging it.

Since the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991 the world experienced a transformation from bipolarity to unipolarity, where the United States has become the global hegemon. However, the world appears to be evolving into a “multipolar world” where nations such as the BRICS¹ block are likely to have strong economic influence in their respective geopolitical regions. Events currently taking place in Ukraine and Gaza seem to have accelerated this process, where nations such as Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa are exercising stronger influence in world affairs. According to the literature, several factors have been identified as major drivers of multipolarity, namely, China’s booming economic growth and rapid technological change throughout many parts of the world. These transformations pose challenges and opportunities to “middle sized” nations such as Australia. In order to analyze these, a SWOT analysis methodology was conducted for Australia, which found that Australia has much to gain in an emerging multipolar world, however, it needs to navigate these troubled waters with very astute diplomatic care.

We live in an era of prolonged uncertainty in highly complex contexts with many unknowns on top of known calculable risks. This reflects Knightian uncertainty, where unique events leave us unsure about future outcomes. The uncertainty of the new century was compounded by events such as 9/11, financial crises and the COVID-19 pandemic. It has eroded our social capital through increased isolation and a general decline in trust. Conspiracies proliferate, enhanced by the mobilizing potential of social media, where populism has gained a stronger political foothold. A previously bipolar world is moving toward one of unbalanced multipolarity among rivaling powers. Policies are shifting from neoliberal views to recognize the need for more explicit government roles, implementing longer-term industrial policies, and reconsidering prior rationales behind international trade and the global economic order. This is partially induced by tepid growth rates, national security concerns tied to the rise of China, and the need for political intervention to reach net-zero goals. The state is returning to engineering optimal solutions, replacing the liberal international order with realism by recognizing the prerogatives of great and middle powers. This is accompanied by authoritarian nationalism across much of the West as well as East Asia and South America. We should not expect these developments to reduce the level of uncertainty in the future ahead of us.