Narrow Results

With the acceleration development of urbanization, the infrastructure construction plays an increasingly crucial role in the expansion process of cities. However, the existing decision-making methods of urban infrastructure investment still stay at the static level, resulting in a huge waste of resources, which does not meet the needs of dynamic urban development and management. Based on geometric Brownian motion, option function and the theory of real option, this paper establishes a dynamic differential optimal investment opportunity decision model applied to urban infrastructure construction. An example was then conducted to test the operability and application of the proposed model. The results confirm that the proposed approach contributes to improving the scientificity of urban infrastructure planning and construction, and realizing the maximization of infrastructure’s social value. Meanwhile, this paper contributes to promoting the development of city infrastructure investment decision-making methods from static to dynamic, and from partial to overall.

With the rapid development of tourism economics, personalized and diversified demand of tourists and the advancement of modern information technologies, the investment of scenic spots faces multitudinous uncertainties and emergencies and can be considered as a nonlinear dynamic system. Given this situation, the existing investment decision-making model (e.g. net present value, NPV) is difficult to estimate the realistic value of scenic spots, and new theory and decision-making model are needed in the area. Based on real option theory and option function, the paper establishes a nonlinear dynamic investment decision model of scenic spots with uncertainties and emergencies, and then, the model is verified with an example. The results show that with the impacts of emergencies, when the investment value is considered, the option value of the investment project in the scenic spot can be maximized, thus maximizing the total value of the investment project. The proposed nonlinear dynamic investment decision model proves that the favourable impact of emergencies on the investment of scenic spots increases the investment opportunity value of scenic projects, thus increasing the investment value of scenic projects, emphasizes more on the dynamic nature of investment and the favourable conditions in the face of crisis, and helps enterprises investing in scenic spots make full use of its uncertain environment and the favourable impact of emergencies to choose the optimal investment opportunity. Therefore, this study has both theoretical and practical significance.