Narrow Results

In the light of the prospect theory (PT), we study the prisoner's dilemma game (PDG) on square lattice by integrating the deterministic and Data envelopment analysis (DEA) efficient rule into adaptive rules: the individual will change evolutionary rule and migrate if its payoff is lower than their aspiration levels. Whether the individual choose to change the evolutionary rule and migrate is determined by the relation between its payoff and aspiration level. The results show that the cooperation frequency can hold unchange with the increasing of temptation to defect. The individual chooses to adopt DEA efficient rule and to migrate that can induce the emergence of cooperation as the payoff is lower than its aspiration.

In the withholding tax system, the tax authority requires taxpayers to pay taxes in advance before filing their tax returns. This note investigates how advance tax payments affect the extent of tax evasion in the economy. We show that the extent of tax evasion decreases with increasing prepaid taxes, if individuals behave according to prospect theory.

When decisions are made under uncertainty (DMUU), the decision maker either disposes of an interval of possible profits for each alternative (the interval DMUU) or disposes of a discrete set of payoffs for each decision and then the amount of the profit related to a given alternative depends on the state of nature (the scenario DMUU). Existing methods, used to generate the ranking of decisions and applied to the second problem mentioned, take, to a different extent, into consideration how particular profits assigned to alternatives are ordered in the payoff matrix and what the position of a given outcome is in comparison with other outcomes for the same state of nature. The author proposes and describes several alternative procedures that enable connecting the structure of the payoff matrix with the selected decision. These methods are adjusted to the purpose and the nature of the decision maker. They refer to the Savage’s approach, to the maximin joy criterion, to the normalization technique and to some elements used in expected utility maximization and prospect theory.

In this paper, loss-averse consumer behavior during purchase decision-making process in the dual-channel supply chain is modeled. Loss-averse consumers prefer avoiding losses to gain utility with respect to their reference point while purchasing the product. Two product categories are classified: (1) basic product and (2) luxury goods which have lower and higher reference utility to consumers, respectively. The research objective is to determine the optimal price strategy in dual-channel supply chains and discuss the decision behind loss-averse consumers. To model consumers’ valuation of a product, prospect theory is adopted to calculate the demands of each channel. Then, the optimal pricing strategy and the corresponding profits are found out in a Stackelberg game manner. The results encourage manufacturers of basic goods to engage in dual-channel strategy. Effect of “double marginalization” is reduced if consumers are loss-averse in the dual-channel supply chain. Furthermore, the direct channel online contributes larger demand to the manufacturer. However, manufacturers of luxury goods are not suggested for dual-channel strategy because the demand for direct channel online is negligible and the demand for the retail channel remains unchanged. Nevertheless, retailers cannot obtain benefit from dual-channel and as a result, the profit of basic goods retailers will be reduced.

According to the management by objectives (MBO) theory, performance evaluations should take into account the achievement of management objectives (MOs). The most commonly used performance evaluation method — the cross-efficiency evaluation method — seldom considers the role of MOs as a reference point. According to the prospect theory, decision-makers underestimate the benefits that exceed the reference point; they also exaggerate the losses that fall below the reference point. This irrational psychology is more obvious when evaluating the performance evaluation of peers. As such, this paper proposes a cross-efficiency evaluation method based on prospect theory, which takes MOs as a reference point from a peer perspective. First, taking MOs as reference points, a decision-making unit (DMU) chooses a set of weights for each peer, in order to maximize or minimize the prospects of the peer, according to the benevolent or aggressive attitude of the DMU. In order to improve the adaptability of the method, the precise number of MOs is further extended to be an interval number. Finally, the relationship between models, which are based on precise MOs and interval MOs, is illustrated by propositions. Finally, numerical examples are provided to illustrate the applications of the proposed cross-efficiency evaluation method.

Electric vehicles play a key role in the transition to an environmental-friendly transportation system and can meanwhile enhance the power system’s evolution to the smart grid. With the adoption of dynamic pricing and usage scheduling enabled by the smart grid equipment, a variety of smart charging strategies have been designed to make the most of flexibility contained in their considerable electricity demand, whereas less effort is devoted to users’ willingness to participate. In this paper, we model a noncooperative pricing game between two types of charging stations. One offers conventional fast charging and the other uses the electric vehicles’ onboard batteries to provide regulation service to the grid. With drivers’ risk attitudes and bounded rationality taken into consideration, we design a prospect theory-based decision model to calculate the proportion of users that would go for the regulation-providing charging option. The decision model of the customer base is a critical determinant of profitability and it enables two competitors to strategically set their prices that optimally balance between gaining in market share and growing in profit per client. We prove the existence of a pure strategy Nash equilibrium for the game proposed and compute the equilibrium prices in different circumstances with respect to market settings and user segments. A comprehensive analysis of the results gives insights into the key factors at play and provides the grid operators with indications of how to increase the penetration of electric vehicles in the ancillary service market.

Call centers are service networks in which agents provide telephone-based services. An important part of call center operations is represented by service durations. In recent statistical analysis of real data, it has been noted that the distribution of service times reveals a remarkable fit to the lognormal distribution. In this paper, we discuss a possible source of this behavior by resorting to classical methods of statistical mechanics of multi-agent systems. The microscopic service time variation leading to a linear kinetic equation with lognormal equilibrium density is built up introducing as main criterion for decision a suitable value function in the spirit of the prospect theory of Kahneman and Twersky.

In this paper, a descriptive decision-making model under uncertainty is proposed which incorporates two types of decision attitudes for uncertainty; one is an attitude about ignorance (optimism/pessimism) and the other one is about risk (risk-seeking and risk-aversion). At first, Evidential Decision Making Problem (EDMP) has been defined where Dempster-Shafer Theory (DST) has been used to represent uncertainty. Then probability approximation approach of solving EDMP is shown. For deciding the decision weights in different attitudes of decision maker, Ordered Weighted Averaging (OWA) operator has been used. Later on, Prospect Theory has been applied to accomplish a descriptive decision-making model. To show the effectiveness of our approach, a real life decision problem of travelers' route choice from a set of alternatives has also been provided.

We derive the optimal portfolio for an expected utility maximizer whose utility does not only depend on terminal wealth but also on some random benchmark (state-dependent utility). We then apply this result to obtain the optimal portfolio of a loss-averse investor with a random reference point (extending a result of Berkelaar et al. (2004) Optimal portfolio choice under loss aversion, The Review of Economics and Statistics86 (4), 973–987). Clearly, the optimal portfolio has some joint distribution with the benchmark and we show that it is the cheapest possible in having this distribution. This characterization result allows us to infer the state-dependent utility function that explains the demand for a given (joint) distribution.

In this paper, we develop a consumption-based asset pricing model motivated by prospect theory, where habit formation determines the endogenous reference point. This exploits the similarity between habit formation and prospect theory. Both emphasize that the investor does not care about the absolute amount of gain or loss, but rather compares the gain or the loss experienced to a benchmark. The results show that when taking people's loss averse attitude over consumption into consideration, our model is capable of resolving the equity premium puzzle.

This study proposes two rational models to reconcile the enigma regarding the inconsistent bond pricing that results among bonds with the same ratings. First, we apply a nonlinear utility function to the expected utility theory and observe different expected utilities for senior bonds and subordinated bonds with the same bond rating. Second, we implement the cumulative prospect theory to demonstrate that the inconsistency occurs when the effect on the convexity of the value function dominates the effect on the overweightness of the weighting function. The two models demonstrate that rather than using the notching policy to explain bond pricing, the inconsistent bond pricing can exist under rational market conditions.

In this paper, a method based on prospect theory is proposed to solve the multiple attribute decision making (MADM) problem with three formats of attribute aspirations. According to the idea of prospect theory, reference points concerning attributes are first determined. Then, for the three formats of attribute aspirations, the calculation formulae of alternatives' gains/losses concerning attributes are given. By calculating each alternative's gain/loss, a gain–loss matrix is constructed. Further, using the value function from prospect theory and the simple additive weighting method, the overall prospect value of each alternative is calculated. Based on the obtained overall prospect values, a ranking of alternatives can be determined. Finally, a case study is given to illustrate the use of the proposed method.

Greater competition and the aftermath of the financial crisis have meant that banks are increasingly focused on improving service quality and achieving higher levels of customer loyalty. Doing so requires being able to identify, understand and measure the determinants of such loyalty, however; and given the variety of multi-faceted factors involved, and the interrelationships among them, this is a complex undertaking. This paper proposes and tests an integrated application of cognitive mapping and multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA), thus combining metacognitive and psychometric decision-making approaches, to create a framework for the assessment of bank customer loyalty, which identifies its determinants and allows the trade-offs among them to be calculated. Practical advantages and limitations of our proposal are also discussed.

Hesitant fuzzy sets (HFSs), an extension of fuzzy sets, are considered to be useful in solving decision making problems where decision makers are unable to choose between several values when expressing their preferences. The purpose of this paper is to develop two hesitant fuzzy multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) methods based on prospect theory (PT). First, the novel component-wise ordering method for two hesitant fuzzy numbers (HFNs) is defined; however, this method does not consider the length of the two HFNs. Second, by utilizing the directed Hausdorff distance between two imprecise point sets, the generalized hesitant Hausdorff distance is developed, which overcomes the shortcomings of the existing distance measures. Third, based on the proposed comparison method and distance, as well as PT, the extended TODIM and Preference Ranking Organization Method for Enrichment Evaluations (PROMETHEE) approaches are developed in order to solve MCDM problems with hesitant fuzzy information. Finally, a practical example is provided to illustrate the pragmatism and effectiveness of the proposed approaches. Sensitivity and comparison analyses are also conducted using the same example. The findings indicate that the proposed methods do not require complicated computation procedures, yet still yield a reasonable and credible solution.

This paper considers a multiple criteria decision-making (MCDM) problem under risk in fuzzy environment in its general form. There are m alternatives which need to be ranked on the basis of a set of n criteria. The alternatives and the criteria are evaluated based on a set of l characteristics. The entire data is presented in the form of interval valued intuitionistic fuzzy soft set of root type. In addition each criterion is assigned a subjective criterion weight based on expert’s evaluation and each characteristic is assigned a probability weight on the basis of decision maker’s knowlege and understanding of the importance of the characteristic. This problem may be called as a MCDM problem under risk in fuzzy environment in its general form. A method for ranking the alternatives using the new score functions, prospect theory and method of determining the optimum criteria weights is explained. An algorithm is developed for this purpose and its working illustrated with a suitable example.

QUALIFLEX is a flexible method to solve the multi-criteria decision-making problem with a few alternatives. Moreover, the linguistic term is a very general way used by decision makers (DMs) to express their real perceptions. In particular, the probabilistic linguistic information, including the probability of each linguistic term, can simulate the vague perceptions of the DMs well. Therefore, the main contributions of this paper are constructing two novel QUALIFLEX with probabilistic linguistic information. First, based on the classical QUALIFLEX, it has been extended under probabilistic linguistic circumstance. Secondly, it is common for the DMs to have different risk attitudes for gains and losses when making their decisions under uncertainty, which is well explained by prospect theory (PT). Hence, PT has been integrated into the extended QUALIFLEX. Then, in this paper, a prospect QUALIFLEX is proposed as well. The feasibility and validity of the proposed methods have been verified by a numerical example in venture capital. The comparative and simulated analysis shows that the latter method with prospect framework is more appropriate than the former one because of the inherent psychological behaviors of the DMs and its excellent ability in identifying the similar alternatives. Furthermore, the ranking results derived from the prospect QUALIFLEX do not change with the different values of parameters. It reveals that the prospect QUALIFLEX is stable and reliable.

Considering the decision maker’s psychological state will influence their evaluation result in the risky multi-attribute decision-making problem, and the uncertainty of evaluation information. In this paper, we will propose a behavioral risky multiple attribute decision making with interval type-2 fuzzy ranking method and TOPSIS method. The interval type-2 fuzzy set is used to express the uncertainty of evaluation information, the prospect theory is applied to describe people’s psychological state in the processing of risk decision making. First, we define a new ranking method for interval type-2 fuzzy set to compare the interval type-2 fuzzy evaluation information and the expectation. Second, we give a relative distance for interval type-2 fuzzy set to get the distance between the interval type-2 fuzzy evaluation information and expectation. Third, we use the prospect theory, the new defined ranking method and the new defined distance formula to obtain the comprehensive prospect value. Fourth, we use the improved TOPSIS method and the comprehensive prospect value to rank the alternatives. Based on the above-mentioned steps, we give the solution for risky interval type-2 fuzzy multiple attribute decision-making problem, which named as the behavioral risky multiple attribute decision making with interval type-2 fuzzy ranking method and TOPSIS method. Finally, we use an example to show the rationality of this method.

Technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) is a famous technique for solving multicriteria decision-making problems. However, the classical TOPSIS is invalid to distinguish the alternatives when the distances to the PIS and NIS are the same, and the current researchers about TOPSIS seldom consider the psychological characteristics of loss aversion and regret aversion which affect the decision quality in real world. This paper proposes a behavioral TOPSIS with prospect theory and regret theory considering risk attitudes. First, the defect of classical TOPSIS is illustrated as motivation. Next, we introduce a behavioral TOPSIS with prospect theory and show how it overcomes the defect of classical TOPSIS. Then, regret theory is applied to extend behavioral TOPSIS to show the regret attitude. Finally, a numerical example is used to demonstrate the feasibility and comparative analysis is presented to show the novelty and validity of the proposed method.

The purpose of this paper is to define a model to examine information sharing behaviour from a psychological ownership perspective in an organisation. The importance of psychological ownership is emphasised in various researches as the cause of the attitude and behaviour of individuals within an organisation, and many researchers have developed and expanded the concept of psychological ownership. Despite its importance, research that examines information sharing behaviour from a psychological ownership perspective is lacking, and the results of each research show conflicting positive and negative results. In order to explain such results, this study examined the concept of psychological ownership by subdividing it into intuition-based information ownership (IBIO) and reasoning-based information ownership (RBIO) based on the prospect theory (PT). Also using the structural equation model, we examined and verified the types of information factors (cost, profits, expertise and hobbies) as leading factors. The main findings have confirmed that IBIO and RBIO have a significant related effect (i.e. the positive effect, however, RBIO has a negative effect on enjoying helping others) on information sharing motivations (reputation, controlling, enjoying helping others and reciprocity). This study supports and expands the theories of psychological ownership and information sharing to aid in the understanding of information sharing within an organisation, and provides practical insights into situations of conflicts of interest regarding information sharing.

What drives China’s approach to disputes in the South China Sea? While conventional wisdom often attributes Beijing’s actions primarily to material interests, this overlooks the possible influence of non-material factors such as China’s desire to uphold its national reputation. Contrary to the assumptions of traditional prospect theory, China’s behavior is not driven solely by calculations of gains and losses but also by considerations for its international reputation. Beijing may temper its assertiveness when its reputation is declining but still manageable, as demonstrated by its increased willingness to resolve disputes multilaterally after its global image was tarnished following the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. Contrarily, China may resort to more assertive actions when these do not significantly hurt its reputation or when the damage seems irreversible, as seen in its unwavering stance during the 2012 Scarborough Shoal standoff with the Philippines.