Climate Change Economics

In the wake of the Paris Climate Agreement, countries may employ sectoral approaches. These allow for efficiency gains while at the same time addressing the concerns of competitiveness and carbon leakage. Applying a multi-country, multi-sector dynamic CGE model, this paper explores the role of sector emission targets for the steel sector in an international agreement, their interaction with emissions trading systems, and to which extent sector targets may address competitiveness concerns. To better reflect technological realities, the steel sector is disaggregated into its two main industries: primary fossil fuel-based steel production (BOF) and secondary scrap recycling steel production (EAF). The policy simulations suggest that sectoral targets may effectively counter the (negative) output and competitiveness effects of differences in the stringency of climate policy across countries. BOF steel contributes significantly more to emission reductions than EAF steel. Moreover, the output effects of BOF and EAF are of opposite signs.

The United States is currently on pace to fall well short of its promises to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 26–28%, relative to 2005, by 2025, under the UN Framework and Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Paris Agreement, even if President Trump did not eliminate most Obama-era climate regulations. However, there still exists interest in reducing emissions, especially from some members of Congress, and there are a number of federal policy options to reduce greenhouse gas emissions if Congress (or a new administration in 2021) so chooses. In this paper, we show that a federal economy-wide carbon tax on US carbon dioxide emissions could significantly contribute to the reductions necessary to fulfill the US international climate commitments. Using a detailed multi-sector computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, we predict the carbon price paths that would be necessary to meet the 28% emissions target and show the economic costs of such carbon-pricing policies. We then demonstrate how both the price paths and associated costs change if action is delayed.

Markets, especially land markets, can facilitate climate change adaptation through price signals. A review of research reveals that urban, coastal, and agricultural land markets provide effective signals of the emerging costs of climate change. These signals encourage adjustments by both private owners and policy officials in taking preemptive action to reduce costs. In agriculture, they promote consideration of new cropping and tillage practices, seed types, timing, and location of production. They also stimulate use of new irrigation technologies. In urban areas, they motivate new housing construction, elevation, and location away from harm. They channel more efficient use of water and its application to parks and other green areas to make urban settings more desirable with higher temperatures. Related water markets play a similar role in adjusting water use and reallocation. To be effective, however, markets must reflect multiple traders and prices must be free to adjust. Where these conditions are not met, market signals will be inhibited and market-driven adaptation will be reduced. Because public policy is driven by constituent demands, it may not be a remedy. The evidence of the National Flood Insurance Program and federal wildfire response illustrates how politically difficult it may be to adjust programs to be more adaptive.

We develop a county-level recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of Orleans Parish (OP) to examine local economic impacts of migration and brain drain after Hurricane Katrina. To incorporate hurricane-induced brain drain in the CGE model, we use a reduced-form model to estimate the change in the share of college graduates caused by hurricane-induced damages. Calibrating the model using pre-disaster social accounting matrices (SAMs) in 2004, we find that permanent loss in population and skilled labor results in 33.57% decline in county-level gross regional product (GRP) in 2012 relative to the 2012 business as usual scenario (BAU) that assumes steady annual growth without Hurricane Katrina. Interestingly, we find that skill loss causes larger decline in GRP than overall decline in population. After accounting for post-disaster public assistance by recalibrating model using 2012 SAMs, we find a lower declining rate of 6.36% in GRP.