Narrow Results

Using data from a sample of 28 representatives countries, we propose a classification of currency crises consequences based on the ultrametric analysis of the real exchange rate movements time series, without any further assumption. By using the matrix of synchronous linear correlation coefficients and the appropriate metric distance between pairs of countries, we were able to construct a hierarchical tree of countries. This economic taxonomy provides relevant information regarding liaisons between countries and a meaningful insight about the contagion phenomenon.

We propose a volatility and uncertainty country ranking based on the entropic analysis of the real exchange rate dynamics. We show that this ranking is highly correlated with the volatility in the gross domestic product after events of currency crises. By comparing entropy with variance ranking we demonstrate that entropy measures better volatility effects of crises.

The paper empirically evaluates growth effects of real exchange rate misalignments in Pakistan for the flexible exchange rate period (1983Q1 to 2005Q4). First, real exchange rate misalignment is calculated as the deviation of the actual real exchange rate from its equilibrium value. It is found that the actual real exchange rate in Pakistan remained undervalued. Second, using the GMM estimation technique, it is found that undervaluation of the Pak-rupee has improved output growth in Pakistan and this result is robust to alternative growth equation specifications. The results also stress the role of other factors in determining output growth rate; particularly, capital per worker, democracy, corruption, human capital and deeper financial markets have the theoretical predicted signs and are statistically significant.

This study examines the real exchange rate determination in Malaysia. The result of the autoregressive distributed lag approach shows that an increase in the real interest rate differential, productivity differential, the real oil price or reserve differential will lead to an appreciation of the real exchange rate in the long run. The real oil price and reserve differential are important in the real exchange rate determination. The dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) estimator shows about the same conclusion of the autoregressive distributed lag approach. The result of the generalized forecast error variance decomposition shows that the real interest rate differential, productivity differential, the real oil price and reserve differential are generally important to the real exchange rate determination.

The study examines the half-life deviations from purchasing power parity (PPP) using both linear and nonlinear models for the sector specific real exchange rates of the Pacific Rim countries. By using a linear benchmark model, the estimated half-life deviations from PPP of about/or less than 3 years seemingly solve the PPP puzzle. After re-examining them using nonlinear forms, the PPP puzzle for most sectoral real exchange rates in the study still remains. More specifically, we find that deviations from PPP by TAR are persistent and take much more time for mean reversions especially for non-tradable sectors using logistic STAR / exponential STAR (LSTAR/ESTAR). The major reasons might be that conventional studies have failed to control the possible nonlinearity of real exchange rates, and have disregarded the possible bias of any single numèraire country. Finally, we also show the speed of mean reversion for real exchange rates by sectoral prices (tradable and non-tradable).

The exchange-rate behavior of the Chinese yuan (RMB) and the Malaysian ringgit (MYR) indicates that the real exchange rate volatility of both the pegged currency/the anchor currency (the US dollar), and the pegged currency/the non-anchor currencies (Japanese yen and British pound) are lower under the pegged regime. The dynamic behavior of the pegged currencies' real exchange rates is consistent with the anchor currency as the speed of convergence of the Big Mac real exchange rates of the RMB, MYR, and the dollar against the floating currencies are almost identical during the pegged period. This may be due to similar inflation rate movements in the related economies. These results do not support the opinion that China has manipulated the value of its currency.

We review the literature on Dutch disease, and document that shocks that trigger foreign exchange inflows (such as natural resource booms, surges in foreign aid, remittances, or capital inflows) appreciate the real exchange rate, generate factor reallocation, and reduce manufacturing output and net exports. We also observe that real exchange rate misalignment due to overvaluation and higher volatility of the real exchange rate lower growth. Regarding the effect of undervaluation of the exchange rate on economic growth, the evidence is mixed and inconclusive. However, there is no evidence in the literature that Dutch disease reduces overall economic growth. Policy responses should aim at adequately managing the boom and the risks associated with it.

This paper investigates the efficacy of currency management as a policy tool to improve trade balance by analyzing the impact of the real exchange rate on the bilateral trade between the United States and China. The paper builds upon the existing literature and empirical analysis is carried out based on the J-curve hypothesis using quarterly data from 2000Q1 to 2021Q4. The vector-auto regression (VAR) model is estimated using China and the United States’ trade balance, real exchange rate, and GDP. The impulse response functions provide evidence of the J-curve. A shock in Yuan (CNY)-US dollar real exchange rate leads to initial deterioration but improvement in the trade balance in favor of China over subsequent quarters. The results hold for various sub-periods of analysis, i.e., after the exchange rate was allowed to fluctuate since July 2005. Evidence supports that the policy of managing the real exchange rate might have yielded desired results for China.

Fossil fuel subsidies are widespread in developing countries, where reform efforts are often derailed by disputes over the likely distribution of gains and losses. The impacts of subsidy reform are transmitted to households through changes in energy prices and prices of other goods and services, as well as through factor earnings. Most empirical studies focus on consumer expenditures alone, and computable general equilibrium analyses typically report only total effects without decomposing them by source. Meanwhile, analytical models neglect important open-economy characteristics relevant to developing countries. In this paper, we develop an analytical model of a small open economy with a preexisting fossil fuel subsidy and identify direct and indirect impacts of subsidy reform on real household incomes. Our results, illustrated with data from Viet Nam, highlight two important drivers of distributional change: (i) the mix of tradable and nontradable goods, reflecting the structure of a trade-dependent economy; and (ii) household heterogeneity in sources of factor income.

In recent years wages in China have been rising and the yuan has appreciated, potentially eroding China’s cost advantage in manufactures. This paper explores the evolution of China’s relative unit labor costs in manufacturing over 1998-2009. Between 1998 and 2003 China’s unit labor costs fell, but since 2003 they have increased both absolutely and relative to US unit labor costs. Much of the rise in China’s relative unit labor costs can be traced to a real appreciation of the yuan against the dollar. Despite the recent rise, China’s unit labor costs remain low relative to those in most other countries.

In this paper, we identify the fundamental determinants of the long-run exchange rate in South Africa. We then estimate the equilibrium real exchange rate for this country using a dataset covering the period 1975–2012. In order to account for possible short-run fluctuations in the real exchange rate, we conducted a cointegration test using the ARDL bounds testing procedure. First, we found terms of trade, trade openness, government consumption, net foreign assets and real commodity prices to be the long-run determinants of the real exchange rate in South Africa. Second, we found that nearly 68.06% of the real exchange-rate disequilibrium is corrected annually. Overall, the estimated equilibrium rate indicates that the Rand has been depreciating in real terms over the years. Tightening trade openness is not an option, given international agreements; on the other hand, terms of trade and real commodity prices are determined by the world market. The obvious policy alternative is for South Africa to increase government spending and moderately decrease her net foreign asset position.

This study finds that there is evidence of a J-curve for Chile, Ecuador, and Uruguay and lack of support for a J-curve for Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, and Peru. Increased real income in the home country would improve the trade balance for Brazil and Ecuador and deteriorate the trade balance for Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Peru, and Uruguay. Increased real income in the U.S. would improve the trade balance for Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Peru, and Uruguay and deteriorate the trade balance for Brazil and Ecuador. Hence, the conventional wisdom to pursue real depreciation to improve the trade balance may not apply to some of these countries.

In this chapter, we introduce the important topic of non-stationary process and highlight a major area of econometric research in the last three decades on trend stationary process and cointegration. This research has been important in shedding light on some spurious regression results if the underlying process dynamics is not properly understood or investigated. We consider the application to purchasing power parity, one of the tools of determining long-run exchange rate levels.