Narrow Results

In this paper, an adapted methodology to evaluate coastal erosion vulnerability, which provides a basis for decision-making concerning risk management strategies, is described. The vulnerability evaluation was based on weighted indicators and assessed the vulnerability under different climate change scenarios. To generate the vulnerability index, dynamic processes, geo-indicators, and social and morphological parameters associated with modeled scenarios of sea level rise and predicted wave height changes were integrated. The study area included the sandy beaches in Pernambuco, NE Brazil, and was used to describe the practical application of this approach. Because the occupation of large sectors of the coastline was low, the vulnerability was concentrated in urbanized areas. The high-vulnerability sections of the coast were those with high population densities, high-rise buildings, induced coastal squeeze and hard engineering structures. The low-vulnerability beaches generally had low urbanization rates and well-conserved, resilient coastlines. Under future scenarios, the vulnerability of this coastal region will increase with sea level rise and wave height changes.

Predicting the long-term topographical change based on results of a time-slice experiment using a General Circulation Model (GCM) is difficult because actual change is a result of the continuum of events occurring in succession leading from the past to the future. We developed a one-dimensional topographical model of an estuary delta as the first step of assessing climate change effects. Three major effects, i.e. tidal flow, waves and sediment supply from the river, were included in this model. In order to estimate the sensitivity of these effects, simulations with virtual conditions were conducted. These simulations show equilibrium profiles that are close to the results of Roberts et al. [2000] “Predicting the profile of intertidal mudflats formed by cross-shore tidal currents,” Proc. Marine Sci.3, 263–285.]. The simulation results were validated with observation data from the Shirakawa River delta. As a long-term prediction (about 37 years), the propagation of the rollover point was less than the actual data showed. The gradient of the subtidal zone was gentler than that observed. However, the short-term prediction (about 17 years) agrees with the observation data. These results show that old, unreliable, observation data used as a boundary condition significantly affects the reproducibility of the actual tidal flat profile. Finally, the effect of continuous Sea Level Rise (SLR) over 100 years from the present was investigated. As expected, the simulation results show a shift of the shoreline landward. The water depths in the intertidal and subtidal zones increase compared to a no-SLR condition. Therefore, the topset area grows as a consequence of SLR. Additionally, it was shown that future accumulation in the subtidal zone is reduced with SLR.

Multi-hazard risk assessments of potential earthquake-triggered tsunamis with the positive contribution of climate change-related sea level rise (SLR) are performed for Hanul and Shin-Hanul (originally the Uljin), Kori and Shin-Kori, and Wolsong and Shin-Wolsong Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) throughout the 21st century. Logic tree approach is used to construct probabilistic tsunami hazard model for evaluating the inundation levels at the coast of each NPP. Hypothetical earthquake sources are generated throughout the East Sea (Sea of Japan) using Monte Carlo Simulations. Epistemic uncertainty of the sea level rises and aleatory variability of the tsunami hazards is considered for stochastic multi-hazard assessment. Tsunami simulations are performed using revised bathymetric levels based on SLR projections of different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) revealed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Tsunami hazard curves are presented to determine the level of the adverse effects of SLR on tsunami inundations for the projected years. Environmental risk assessment is conducted by evaluating multi-hazard curves. The results show that the effect of SLR will be extremely significant on tsunami inundation levels, especially for the worst-case scenario estimated by IPCC. Depending on the multi-hazard risk assessments, Hanul NPP is the only site to survive against the worst-case scenario. Wolsong and Shin Wolsong NPP is under moderate multi-hazard risk. Whereas, Kori and Shin-Kori NPP may encounter a destructive multi-hazard environmental risk according to the analysis conducted in this study.

Significant portions of the United States (U.S.) property, commerce and ecosystem assets are located at or near the coast, making them vulnerable to sea level variability and change, especially relative rises. Although global mean sea level (MSL) and sea level rise (SLR) are fundamental considerations, regional mean sea level (RSL) variability along the boundaries of U.S. along the two ocean basins are critical, particularly if the amplitudes of seasonal to annual to inter-annual variability is high. Of interest is that the conventional wisdom of the U.S. agencies, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) which both contend that the sources of sea level rise are related principally to heat absorption and release by the ocean(s) to the atmosphere and vice versa, and by Polar glacier melting and freshwater input into the ocean(s). While these phenomena are of great importance to SLR and sea level variability (SLV), we assess a suite of climate factors and the Gulf Stream, for evidence of correlations and thus possible influences; though causality is beyond the scope of this study. In this study, climate factors related to oceanic and atmospheric heat purveyors and reservoirs are analyzed and assessed for possible correlations with sea level variability and overall trends on actionable scales (localized as opposed to global scale). The results confirm that oceanic and atmospheric temperature variability and the disposition of heat accumulation or the lack thereof, are important players in sea level variability and rise, but also that the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the Arctic Oscillation, the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation, Solar Irradiance, the Western Boundary Current-Gulf Stream, and other climate factors, can have strong correlative and perhaps even causal, modulating effects on the monthly to seasonal to annual to inter-annual to decadal to multi-decadal sea level variability at the community level.

Using a large sample over the period 1986 to 2017, we show that companies with higher exposure to climate change risk induced by sea-level rise (SLR) tend to acquire firms that are unlikely to be directly affected by SLR. We find that acquirers with higher SLR exposure experience significantly higher announcement-period abnormal stock returns. Analyses using failed merger bids as an exogenous shock show that post-merger, analyst forecasts become more accurate and environmental-related as well as overall ESG scores improve.

How do the local impacts of Hurricane Sandy's devastating storm surge differ because of the phase of the normal astronomical tide, given the spatiotemporal variability of tides around New York? In the weeks and months after Hurricane Sandy's peak surge came ashore at the time of local high tide at the southern tip of Manhattan and caused record-setting flooding along the New York and New Jersey coastline, this was one question that government officials and critical infrastructure managers were asking. For example, a simple superposition of the observed peak storm surge during Sandy on top of high tide in Western Long Island Sound comes within 29 cm (less than a foot) of the top elevation of the Stamford Hurricane barrier system which would have been overtopped by 60 cm surface waves riding over that storm tide. Here, a hydrodynamic model study of how shifts in storm surge timing could have influenced flood heights is presented. Multiple flood scenarios were evaluated with Stevens Institute of Technology's New York Harbor Observing and Prediction System model (NYHOPS) having Hurricane Sandy arriving any hour within the previous or next tidal cycle (any hour within a 26-hour period around Sandy's actual landfall). The simulated scenarios of Sandy coming between 7 and 10 hours earlier than it did were found to produce the worst coastal flooding in the Upper East River, Western and Central Long Island Sound among the evaluated cases. Flooding would have generally been worse compared to the real Sandy in Connecticut and the areas of New York City around the Upper East River between the boroughs of Queens and the Bronx, exceeding record flood heights. However, the New York Harbor region would still have seen its record flood elevation exceeded, so the storm's impact could have been more widespread. The hydrodynamic model results suggest that the still-water levels would have risen to within 75 cm of the top elevation of the Stamford storm surge barrier, 46 cm lower than the naïve superposition of astronomical tide and storm surge.

The following theses are claimed, several contrasting current climate policies and taxonomies. Analysis, based on solely carbon dioxide emission and energy budget, concludes a set of concrete solutions for mitigating climate change effects. Some of the theses violate more orthodox policy which is thus protested against in order to move forward.

• •Our long-term goal must be to stop using all carbon-containing fuels, including natural gas and other fossil products as well as biofuels.
• •We must electrify society and industry, with electricity from only non-carbon-based power including nuclear power, hydro-electric, wind and solar power.
• •We must prepare ourselves for changes. Even if the present emission volumes of carbon dioxide were possible to stop immediately, various lag effects are inevitable and negative development will therefore continue for considerable time.
• •We must count with continued melting of land ice, the complete liquifying of the Antarctica ice expected to lead to a global sea level rise by some 60 m, flooding most capitals. Among various solutions to mitigate the effects of ice melting, including lowered global temperatures, the following is proposed.
• •To mitigate sea level rise, stationary water reservoirs should be built around the world. With estimated melting rates it would require ca 1 million reservoirs be deployed or expanded during the next 20-40 years.
• •Such reservoirs could also solve the emergent problem of lack of fresh water in many places. They could also be used for local storage of hydroelectric energy by using pump storage hydroelectric (PSH) technology.
• •All energy production sources should be analyzed according to a Total Balanced Energy Budget (TBEB) with the main objective of minimizing the emissions of greenhouse gases.
• •For each region/country, a table of available or conceivable complementary electric energy sources should be made and ranked according to TBEB—the sources given priority weights depending on feasibility, significance, and environmental friendliness. Tables are presented for Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Germany, France, Ukraine, California, Massachusetts, Maine, Peru, Australia, China and Japan. Generally, we find the following rank of priority applicable.
• •Solar energy from desert arid areas is given highest priority in replacing carbon-based forms of energy. Submarine electric cables may be deployed along the Australia-Singapore model, if the available power grids are insufficient for the energy transport.
• •Electrolysis of water producing clean hydrogen gas is given very high priorityboth for using hydrogen as fuel as well as for energy storage. Improved efficiency should be achieved by the development of electrolysis catalysts.
• •Hydroelectric power in combination with PSH is given high priority to mitigate both grid power fluctuations as well as source (solar and wind) intermittence.
• •False hope should not be seeded among society and politicians by inflating projects that are less realistic or suboptimal for technological, economic or other reasons. Here, probably most forms of “biofuels” (which although being “carbon neutral” do produce carbon dioxide) and “carbon capture” (catching carbon dioxide gas at the combustion site, compressing it to liquid and depositing it in salt mines or empty oil fields) are considered less significant compared to other more direct solutions. Both biofuels and carbon capture may be associated with social and environmental issues.
• •Political legislation and instruments (“taxonomy”) invented with the original objective of mitigating negative climate change effects should be reanalyzed and changed if not functional. The EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS)—a market for outlet rights, for example, is a local initiative which despite its valuable ambition might be suboptimal with respect to goal of efficient decrease of carbon dioxide emission globally. Similarly, “climate taxonomy” can create loopholes bypassing a sound TBEB.
• •Science-based targets (SBT) to decarbonize the private sector as part of global efforts to achieve the temperature goal of the Paris Agreement should be further encouraged.
• •Solve economic and political challenges allowing and promoting establishment of required international energy collaborations (e.g., for solar energy cross-continental transport programs).

Several decades ago, I thought climate change might be an over-hyped activist cause. Like many people, including much of the scientific community back then, I could not fathom that our species was capable of altering the fundamental operating system of the planet. Only after I learned more, and began seeing massive environmental change with my own eyes and camera, did I comprehend the scale of humanity’s impact on our world…

Every year there are as many as 20,000 scientific papers and reports published about the science of climate and climate change, and the resulting impacts and policy implications. The vast majority of these publications are rigorously done and are peer reviewed before publication, Since about 1990, on a time scale of roughly every 4–6 years, top experts are being asked to assess the state of the science and the implications of the changes occurring in the climate. Internationally, this occurs through the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and for the United States, through the US National Climate Assessments (NCAs). These assessments provide important input to policy considerations, at international, national, and local levels…

The article on the Climate Science Special Report: 4th U.S. National Climate Assessment (NCA4), Volume I, summarizes the basis and the requirements for developing U.S. national climate assessments. The reader is referred to that material, as it is not repeated here. Instead, the focus in this chapter is on NCA4, Volume II, which is an assessment of climate-related impacts, risks, and adaptation in the United States. NCA4, Volume II (USGCRP, 2018), was published on November 23, 2018, and the entire assessment report is available at NCA2018.globalchange.gov…

Sea level rise and its impacts in the coastal zones is a question of growing interest in the scientific community, as well as the media and the public. In effect with extreme events (e.g., floods, droughts, cyclones), sea level rise is generally considered a major threat due to current global warming in the highly populated low-lying coastal regions of the world. Today about 600 million people live near the sea, at an altitude less than 10m above sea level and are mostly concentrated in several of the largest megacities of the world. This number is expected to double by 2060. Because of obvious importance for adaptation purposes and associated socio-economic issues, measuring and understanding present-day sea level change, as well as accurately projecting future sea level rise under different global warming scenarios, stand among the highest priorities in ocean and climate research, as recently highlighted by different international organizations. For example, the report on oceans prepared by the European Academies Science Advisory Council (EASAC, 2016) recommends more research and observations on ocean warming and sea level rise. In 2018, the report “Thriving on our changing planet: A decadal strategy for Earth observation from space” (National Research Council, The National Academies, USA) has listed among its highest priorities answering the questions: how much will sea level rise globally, regionally, and locally over the next decade and beyond? Similarly, one of the main “Grand challenges” of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) focuses on quantitative understanding of the natural and anthropogenic mechanisms causing regional and local sea level changes and fostering the development of sea level predictions and projections that are of increasing benefit for coastal zone management. Sea level rise monitoring and understanding is also implicitly included as one of the 17 United Nations Sustained Developments Goals 2030, i.e., “Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts”. We summarize below current knowledge about present-day sea level rise and sea level projections for the next few decades.

The sea level is rising and the rate of rise is accelerating. This causes essentially permanent flooding of land and worsening short-term flood events in coastal areas all over the world. Even small amounts of higher base sea level can have severe effects. Just an additional few centimeters (an inch) can cause the water to overflow a building’s lowest opening, a seawall, levee, or critical piece of infrastructure. A one-foot vertical rise can move the shoreline three hundred feet inland, depending on how steep the elevation rise is…

Commercial and recreational fisheries are very valuable industries that are critical components of coastal communities around the world, including making vital contributions to global food security (FAO, 2018). This is also the case off the northeast coast of the United States where the total combined value added of the commercial fishing and seafood industries from the Middle Atlantic and New England regions was greater than $10 billion in 2016, while the recreational fishing industry from throughout this geographic range had a total value added of more than $4 billion in 2016 (NMFS, 2018). Given the high socioeconomic value of the marine fisheries off the northeast United States, it is imperative that effective fisheries management measures are implemented to support the sustainability of the marine fishery resources and the coastal communities and industries that are dependent on these resources. On a global scale, scientifically-assessed stocks of fishery resources are not typically declining, but rebuilding (Hilborn and Ovando, 2014), while fisheries management has contributed to the successful rebuilding of many stocks off the northeast United States despite continued difficulties in rebuilding some stocks (NOAA, 2017) and in meeting socioeconomic objectives which seek to achieve optimum yield from our fisheries…

Simulative analyses were carried out to study the effects of sea level rise (SLR) and global climate change scenarios on storm tide levels fronting the Roxas Boulevard seawall. Storm tides under historical typhoons and various periods of SLR were computed using ADCIRC storm surge model. The contribution of storm waves to the non-overtopping crest elevation was also studied using a nearshore wave model. Return periods of various design water levels were also associated with the various SLR and GCC scenarios to establish bases for the rehabilitation design of the RB seawall.

Water level determines flooding and considerably effects wave climate. Hence, it is important to consider it in both disaster mitigation and coastal structure design. Unlike other water level components such as storm surge and waves, astronomic tide is periodic and predictable. The oceans and bays are forced-oscillating system, allowing astronomic tide to oscillate with the same frequencies as the tide-producing forces. While astronomy determines the tide constituents’ frequencies, it is the basin hydrodynamics that controls their amplitudes and phase lags. Tide time series record is needed in harmonic analysis to predict astronomic tides. The predictability of tide allows the analysis of storm tide level through the extraction of storm surge component in the water level time series. This method to synthesize the storm surge was validated in this study as an application to disaster mitigation. To de-trend the 1969-2015 hourly water level from National Mapping and Resource Information Authority (NAMRIA), sea level rise was examined. Least-square linear solution to the monthly mean values (1901-2015) was utilized. Results showed that the slopes of the trends of sea level are rapidly increasing over time because a varying trends for 1901-1968 (1.76 mm/year) and 1969-2015 (13.6 mm/year) was obtained. The de-trended 1969-2015 hourly water level (through 13.6 mm/year trend) was used to hindcast the astronomic tide. The results are the storm surge values of 47 historical typhoons that tracked within Manila Bay (study area). Finally, to apply the NAMRIA tide data in coastal structure design, tidal datum values were compared to the computed values (through zero-crossing method). Results showed that the selection of wave period on which an individual wave will be defined causes large variation on the compared tidal datum values (NAMRIA-specified versus computed). NAMRIA uses the tidal day (24.84 hours) as the wave period while results in zero crossing method showed that the length of periods of individual waves being analyzed is ranging from 12 to 275 hours.

A numerical simulation of a storm surge is useful to prevent or reduce a storm surge disaster. There are, however, unknown factors in the simulation which brings information errors. The storm surge of tropical cyclone Sidr in Bengal bay in the year of 2007 was not able to be described by the standard simulation method using the track information of a storm surge. This study shows the several results of the storm surge by 11 cases of wind field expression as uncertainty factor. Using the best case comparing with field measured data, the process of generation of the high storm surge which was over 7 m was shown with how uncertain factor affect to the simulation results. Finally, impact assessment of storm surge with sea level rise along the coast of Bengal bay in 21st century was carried out, taking into account of uncertainty of the wind fields, uncertainty of projections of sea level rises and uncertainty of population growth.

Storm surge is influenced by many factors including environmental and geographical conditions. However, laboratory experiments and filed measurements were not easy to carry due to danger and difficulties. In this study, we conducted a numerical study with a verified storm surge model. Storm surge was impacted by track, tide, water depth and sea level rise. The track of storm is related to size of storm and the range of impact could be estimated by their relationship. One of the characteristics on storm surge is that storm surge is strongly affected by water depth and surface elevation. We found that variation of storm surge could be different at each tide and depth and it makes a big difference in the western sea of Korean Peninsula whose averaged depth is about 40 m and tidal range is about 10 m. An increasing sea level rise by climate change can cause a little reduction of storm surge by its own characteristics.

Accelerated sea level rise in the 21st century and beyond will result in unprecedented rates of coastal recession which will threaten $ billions worth of coastal developments and infrastrucure. Therefore, we cannot continue to depend on the controversial Bruun rule for estimating coastal recession due to sea level rise. Furthermore, the emergence of risk management style coastal planning frameworks is now requiring probabilistic estimates of coastal recession. This paper describes the development and application of an innovative process based, probabilistic model for the estimation of coastal recession due to sea level rise. The method requires as input long term water level and wave data which are now available via widespread tide gauges and global hind cast models respectively. This method is proposed as a more appropriate and defensible alternative for the determination coastal recession due to SLR for planning purposes.

In a changing climate, saltwater intrusion is expected to worsen in low-lying coastal areas around the world. Understanding the physical and economic effects of salinity ingress, and planning adaptation, are key to the long-term development of countries where sea level rise (SLR) has been identified as a major risk from climate change. This chaper presents a study conducted in Bangladesh which quantifies the prospective relationship between climate-induced changes in sea level, temperature, rainfall, and altered riverine flows from the Himalayas, and the spread and intensity of salinization on river water in the coastal zone in 2050. The research takes into account the projected land subsidence of the Ganges Delta, as well as alternative scenarios of upstream withdrawal of freshwater. The findings indicate that climate change will cause significant changes in river salinity in the southwest coastal area of Bangladesh by 2050. These changes are likely to lead to significant shortages of drinking water in the coastal urban areas, scarcity of water for irrigation for dry-season agriculture, and significant changes in the coastal aquatic ecosystems. Changes in the availability of freshwater fish will likely affect the composition of capture fishery, although the increase in brackishwater will enhance opportunities for brackishwater aquaculture.Assessment of location-specific economic impacts of the changes in river salinity, identification of suitable adaptation alternatives, and costing of adaptation are high priorities for further analysis.