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We distinguish between “task-warranted” and “task-unwarranted” graduate jobs. For both types, a degree is required but task-warranted graduate jobs involve carrying out typical graduate-level tasks. We operationalize the distinction, using representative surveys of resident Singapore workers. We find that the ongoing fast expansion of higher attainment between 2013 and 2017 was met by a similarly-strong growth in task-warranted graduate jobs. Compared with the matched graduates, the graduates in task-unwarranted graduate jobs and in non-graduate jobs both perceive lower skills utilization. There is a negative wage gap of 18% for graduates in task-unwarranted graduate jobs, and of 31% for underemployed graduates.

In search of a stable demand for money, almost all previous studies include two uncertainty measures captured by the volatility of the money supply and output. While in some countries, this yielded a stable demand for money, in some others, it did not. The latter was the case for Singapore. In this paper, we use a relatively more new and comprehensive measure of uncertainty known as policy uncertainty that is a news-based measure, and revisit the demand for money in Singapore. Our approach not only yields a stable demand for money in Singapore, but also reveals that the long-run effects of policy uncertainty on the demand for money are asymmetric. While increased uncertainty induces the public in Singapore to hold more money, decreased uncertainty does not affect.

There has been a pronounced increase in research and development (R&D) expenditure in Singapore since the late 1990s, with government spending accounting for a sizeable share. This increase has been spurred by increasing public policy emphasis on research and innovation as engines of economic growth. Building upon earlier work (Ho et al., 2009; Ho and Wong, 2017), this paper provides an updated analysis of the impact of R&D on the economic performance of Singapore over four decades from 1978 to 2019 through the use of time series analysis. The Cobb–Douglas production function-based analysis shows a long-run equilibrium relationship between total factor productivity (TFP) and R&D investments. We found that in both long- and short-run productivity of R&D, Singapore tends to lag behind the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) nations. This suggests leakage of value capture and low absorptive capacity of local firms. Possibility of R&D productivity improvements induced by major policy changes over the last two decades was examined, but no evidence of significant structural breaks was found. Lastly, Granger causality analysis reveals that public sector R&D augments private sector R&D capital, thus playing an important role in generating externalities and spillover effects. Policy implications of our findings for Singapore are discussed.

Asia is home to the most rapidly aging populations in the world. This study focuses on two countries in Asia that are advanced in terms of their demographic transition: the Republic of Korea and Singapore. We developed a demographic and economic state-transition microsimulation model based on the Korean Longitudinal Study of Aging and the Singapore Chinese Health Study. The model was employed to compare projections of functional status and disability among future cohorts of older adults, including disparities in disability prevalence by educational attainment. The model also projects increasing disparities in the prevalence of activities-of-daily-living disability and other chronic diseases between those with low and high educational attainment. Despite overall increases in educational attainment, all elderly, including those with a college degree, experience an increased burden of functional disability and chronic diseases because of survival to older ages. These increases have significant economic and social implications, including increased medical and long-term care expenditures, and an increased caregiver burden.

Singapore's exchange rate policy in practice is a policy mix somewhat more complicated than the simple "strong Singapore dollar policy". This paper discusses the theoretical and empirical foundations of this policy mix. It then proceeds to evaluate the past performance of Singapore's exchange rate policy. By highlighting a drastic decline in foreign inflation towards a negligible level nowadays, the paper recommends a far more moderate appreciation of Singapore dollar than those in the past.

This paper provides an overview of the venture capital industry and its development in Asia and Singapore. Venture capital plays an important role in innovation and economic growth. Indeed, the resurgence of the United States as a technology leader is intimately linked to the success of Silicon Valley. As Singapore enters the next phase of economic development, the creation of internal engines of growth is an urgent task. The Singapore government has done much to provide an environment for entrepreneurship to thrive. Its success at replicating the Silicon Valley culture will be important for Singapore's future economic success.

This policy note, which focuses on Singapore's monetary and exchange rate policies, has a number of objectives. First, it highlights the fact that the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) is equipped with a powerful tool to target the exchange rate level it desires (within limits). Second, it reviews Singapore's exchange rate policy since 1980 and explains that the de facto policy is far more complicated and flexible than the simplistic but oft-noted description of the MAS pursuing a "strong Singapore dollar" policy. Specifically, the paper argues that Singapore's exchange rate regime is an ideal example of the monitoring band system favoured by John Williamson. Third, the paper contrasts the Singapore currency regime with the relatively more inflexible currency board arrangement (CBA) operated in Hong Kong. The relative advantages of Singapore's flexible monitoring band arrangement over Hong Kong's rigidly fixed CBA are highlighted.

This paper examines an intervention index in the foreign exchange market, applying the quarterly data of the Singapore economy during the 1990's. The intervention index measures intervention activity as the proportion of exchange market pressure relieved by exchange market intervention. Singapore is selected because (1) it is a small open economy and consistent with this empirical study, and (2) it has been affected by speculative attacks. The specific interest is the effectiveness of intervention conducted by the Singapore authority to mitigate exchange market pressure. It is concluded that the overall intervention activity is surprisingly successful over the sample period.

This study re-examines the validity of the relationship between the Singapore dollar–U.S. dollar exchange rate and relative prices using the latest econometric methodologies that account for non-linearity. Among others, this study finds Exponential Smooth Transition Autoregressive (ESTAR)-type non-linear mean-reverting adjustment process of the nominal Singapore dollar–U.S. dollar rate towards the consumer price index ratio. Unlike previous findings of a linear cointegration relationship between the nominal Singapore dollar–U.S. dollar exchange rate and consumer price index ratio, this study shows that the relationship is in fact non-linear in nature. The major economic implications of our findings are: (1) policy makers need to take non-linearity into consideration in their policy decisions; (2) the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) is able to maintain the macroeconomic equilibrium despite the authority's strong dollar policy; and (3) one should keep track of Singapore's monetary policy and other innovations in aggregate demand in order to closely monitor the movement of the Singapore exchange rate.

This paper reviews the existing literature on impacts of pronatalist benefits on fertility in various countries, and estimates the impact of the Qualified Child Relief (QCR) on the total fertility rate (TFR) of Singapore. The studies surveyed in this paper generally find that pronatalist incentives contribute to raising the fertility rate, but only to a limited extent. In Singapore, a 1% increase in the QCR is estimated to increase the TFR by 0.1–0.2%. Singapore's fertility rate is also found to be positively correlated with men's earnings and the infant mortality rate, while negatively correlated with women's earnings and the unemployment rate. Evidence that the New Population Policy of 1987 has been effective in raising the fertility rate is also found.

This paper examines the population trends in Singapore over the next 50 years. The component method is employed in the projection calculations. The aging of Singapore's resident population is well-known. The projections show that the Singaporean population will reach a maximum of about 3.63 million in the year 2025 before steadily declining to reach 3.32 million by the year 2050. The population projections were also done in terms of gender and ethnic groups. Dependency ratios, weighted and unweighted were also calculated assuming different retirement ages. Remarks on some policy implications of these projections are provided.

Behavioral economics is the study of economic behavior beyond the traditional simple economic models of constrained maximization with purely economic objectives (consumption/profits). Some policy implications of the findings of behavioral economics, happiness studies and beyond are outlined, with special reference to excessive volatility in business cycles and the optimal level of public spending. Though behavioral economics potentially provides more support for the restriction of gambling, an outright ban need not be optimal. Though legal casinos may increase some crimes, it will decrease crimes associated with illegal gambling. Some restrictions of problem gambling will be needed. Apart from (if not rather than) the attraction of tourists/visitors, the consumer surplus associated with responsible pleasure gambling is likely to be the major benefits of legalizing casinos. The proposed entry fee may be better replaced by a membership system, as the former is unfair to locals and will lead to unhealthy gambling.

This article aims to show that the literature so far has not been able to present a statistically robust answer to the question of what drove Singapore's spectacular savings rates. A substantial part of the literature — particularly earlier studies — must be rejected on methodological grounds since the time-series properties of the respective data series were not taken into consideration when choosing the appropriate testing method. Others have omitted potentially crucial determinants of savings or have wrongly disaggregated Gross National Savings. This unsatisfactory state of investigation into Singapore's saving behavior is unfortunate because savings play such a central role in Singapore's economic history since the country's independence. For future research the article also supplies new data series, which disaggregate Singapore's national savings after taking the country's peculiarities into consideration. The critical assessment is also intended as a guideline to future researchers of which mistakes to avoid and where potential pitfalls lie.

The key objective of this study is to bring into light several shortcomings of early literatures in identifying episodes of currency crises. A careful examination of the basic statistical distribution of exchange market pressure index, based on a weighting scheme proposed by Eichengreen–Rose–Wyplosz (1995, 1996), reveals that the conventional method of defining currency crisis is statistically flawed. This study applies an alternative statistical method known as Extreme Value Analysis (EVA), originally developed by Hill (1975), and, more recently, extended by Huisman et al. (2001) to the case of Singapore from 1985 to 2003.

In this note, I document the change in correlation between Hong Kong, Singapore and the US financial market indexes using Geweke Measures after the handover of Hong Kong to China. The results show that these relationships have changed significantly. While the feedback relationship between Hong Kong, Singapore and the US markets increase after the handover of Hong Kong, the increases in feedback relationship between Singapore and the US markets is relatively higher compared to the change between Hong Kong and the US markets.

This paper examines the key characteristics of Singapore's exchange rate-centered monetary policy; in particular, its managed float regime which incorporates key features of the basket, band and crawl system popularized by Williamson (1998, 1999). We assess how the flexibility accorded by this framework has been advantageous in facilitating adjustment to various shocks to the economy. A characterization of the countercyclical nature of Singapore's exchange rate policy is also offered, with reference to recent work on the monetary policy reaction function and estimates of Singapore's behavioral equilibrium exchange rate. We also review previous econometric analysis which provides evidence that Singapore's managed float system may have helped to mitigate the spillover effects of such increased volatility into the real economy. The track record of Singapore's managed float regime over the past two decades suggests that intermediate regimes are a viable alternative to the so-called "corner solutions", especially when supported by consistent macroeconomic and microeconomic policies as well as strong institutions.

Based on a small, open-economy IS-LM prototype model, this paper examines the sources of macroeconomic instabilities in Hong Kong and Singapore operating under two different currency board arrangements. The empirical findings suggest that in general, both external and internal factors contribute to the macroeconomic volatilities observed in the two economies. There is evidence of a tradeoff between exchange rate and interest rate targeting for the stability of money supply in Singapore. Our findings have important implications for Mainland China's monetary authorities in the transition from a hard-peg exchange rate regime like Hong Kong to a basket-link system like the one in Singapore.

This policy note finds that the ageing of the population in Singapore will cause a reversal of the current net Central Provident Fund (CPF) contribution into a substantial net CPF withdrawal from 2025, with a peak occurring at 2035. The result is qualitatively robust to changes in the underlying assumptions of the projection. The paper then highlights the implications of this change on the exchange rate and monetary management in Singapore. Finally, the paper proposes policy measures that can help (a) mop up the excess liquidity due to the net CPF withdrawals; and (b) maintain the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS)'s influence on Singapore's exchange rate at a reasonable level in the longer future.

The Fisher Effect postulated that real interest rate is constant, and that nominal interest rate and expected inflation move one-for-one together. This paper employs Johansen's method to investigate for the existence of a long-run Fisher effect in the Singapore economy over the period 1976 to 2006, and finds evidence of a positive relationship between nominal interest rate and inflation rate while rejecting the notion of a full Fisher Effect. The dynamic relationship between nominal interest rate and inflation rate is also examined from the error-correction models derived, and the analysis is extended to investigate the impulse response functions of inflation and nominal interest rates where we discover the presence of the Price Puzzle in the Singapore market.

This paper investigates the existence of long-run relationship between unemployment and several key macroeconomic variables in Malaysia, Singapore, and the Philippines. The Johansen–Juselius cointegration method confirms the existence of a stationary long-run cointegration relationship between unemployment and its determinants in all three countries. Exports and foreign direct investment are important determinants of unemployment in Malaysia. In the Philippines, government spending and exports are inversely related to unemployment. In Singapore, only exports appeared as a significant factor in determining unemployment. The results show that the speed of adjustment following a shock is more rapid in Singapore compared to the other two ASEAN countries.