Narrow Results

This paper explores the methodological differences underlying the construction of the national consumption aggregates that are used to estimate international poverty rates for South Asian countries. The analysis draws on a regional dataset of standardized consumption aggregates to assess the sensitivity of international poverty rates to the items included in the national consumption aggregates. A key feature of the standardized aggregate is that it includes the reported value of housing rent for urban Indian homeowners. Using the standardized consumption aggregates reduces the international poverty rate in South Asia by 1.3 percentage points, impacting the status of about 18.5 million people. Comparing standardized and nonstandardized monetary welfare indicators to other nonmonetary indicators suggests that the latter are more consistent with the standardized consumption aggregates. Overall, the results strongly suggest that harmonizing the construction of welfare measures, particularly the treatment of imputed rent, can meaningfully improve the accuracy of international poverty comparisons.

China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is an ambitious project aiming to transform the economic landscape along its route in the areas of trade, investment, and energy supplies. It makes as its focal point the connectivity between China and Eurasia, South Asia, and the Indian Ocean. South Asia’s location presents China with significant strategic opportunities as Beijing seeks to expand its economic presence in the subcontinent by providing resources in infrastructural development, particularly the construction of seaports. With growing Chinese trade and investment in the region, Beijing is also extending its diplomatic influence into what has long been considered as India’s sphere of influence. With longstanding strategic distrust and unresolved territorial disputes, New Delhi is suspicious of Beijing’s intentions and concerned over the latter’s growing influence into a region it has long considered its sphere of influence. In this context, the BRI has the potential to intensify Sino–Indian rivalry, and the Modi government has indeed explored and launched initiatives to counter Chinese diplomatic activities. It remains a challenge whether and how Asia’s rising powers can reduce their trust deficits and explore areas of cooperation made possible by the BRI, working toward a cooperative, mutually beneficial future for Sino–Indian relations and the region as a whole.

The lofty ideals penned by the heads of the South Asian states at the birth of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) reflect a vision for promoting mutual trust and understanding in South Asia. But the member states have fallen into the intricate web of power balancing games, fluctuating economic growth and volatile ethnic and religious conditions that has marred the potential gains from regionalism. In such a scenario, while SAARCs snail-like progress continues without any remarkable achievements, there has been a rise of new regional organizations that has not only renewed our attention towards economic liberalization and the benefits accrued from multilateral economic cooperation but has also put into question the fundamentals of regionalism. The paper situates regionalism in acts of cooperation that are not isolated and discrete from each other but rather form a pattern of interconnecting expectations about the future of the alliance and the assumptions on legitimate activities. The paper argues that regionalism is a multi-faceted task and involves political harmony, economic interdependence and common identity as the three pillars. But regionalism in South Asia encourages economic interdependence and proscribes political integration and common values and norms. As a result, the attempts at regionalism in South Asia are conceptually narrow, limited in agenda and inadequate to address the issues of regional peace and security.

This study empirically investigates a monetary policy reaction function for South Asian economies by incorporating financial stability as an additional policy objective in the central bank’s loss function. Empirical results are estimated by applying auto-regressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to cointegration and vector autoregressive (VAR) approach using time-series data of five South Asian countries, namely, Pakistan, India, Bangladesh, Nepal and Sri Lanka. Estimated results indicate that monetary policy significantly reacts to the level of financial stability in all countries. The result further suggests that central banks would tighten monetary policy if output gap widens and exchange rate depreciate. In addition, central banks of Pakistan and India do not respond significantly to inflation gap.

Using the aggregate financial stability index (AFSI) which measures the gradual progression and changes in financial market stability, this paper empirically evaluates the impact of financial and economic integration on financial stability in South Asian countries using time-series data for the period 1980–2012. Auto-regressive distributed lag (ARDL) Bounds testing approach to cointegration is applied to ensure long-run relationship between variables. Bound F-test results confirm the long-run relationship between selected variables. The estimated results show that economic and financial integration has exerted a significant negative effect on financial stability in long run.

Over the last three and half decades, China’s rapid advancement in development efforts has been accompanied by a conscious effort in projecting itself as a major frontrunner in the economy. Despite being a developing country (Huang, 2015), Chinese President Xi Jinping’s announcement in World Economic Forum (WEF) (Bruce-Lockhart, 2017) had hinted China’s growing interest in the development of trade and network among countries. The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is also one such development put forward to institutionalize China’s soft power presence in the world and create harmony with rest of the world. The Initiative has been placed as synonymous to a way of friendly cooperation signaling the project as “Road for Peace” (Kasturi, 2017). China has placed a tremendous amount of effort for its “charm offensive” approach with an estimated US$10 billion spending every year on its global soft power presence (Kurlantzick, 2017). Under the project, China has placed initiatives in approaching for regional connectivity in the South Asia region with China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) being regarded as its flagship program. As it goes, of all the projects China has undertaken in the BRI, its ventures in South Asia are considered challenging and need strong cooperation (Stratfor Enterprises, 2017). The unstable geo-politics and security threats in the region pose Beijing with a lot to consider before it can preach about the peaceful connectivity. Most significant of all, the problems in the region will be with India as it has openly expressed its dissatisfaction towards BRI. India not only observes the initiative as a security threat with CPEC corridor passing through the controversial Kashmir area, but also sees it as an initiative to undermine its traditional influence in the region. As such, this paper tries to provide an analytical view of BRI with China’s soft power presence in the South Asia region.

South Asia is becoming one of the most fiercely competitive battlegrounds between India and China. Located at the center of South Asia and with its large geographical area, population, and economic size, superior military strength compared to other countries in the region, India has always been the most influential power in the region. But in the past decade, China’s intensified partnership with small countries in South Asia has threatened India’s number one position in the region. It is the challenges posed by China in South Asia, inter alia, that have forced India under Prime Minister Narendra Modi to make various important foreign policy adjustments. To interpret India–China competition in South Asia in aspects of diplomacy, economy, security and defense, the paper uses international relations theories including constructivism, neo-realism (particularly offensive realism) and the balance of threat theory. Although the paper analyzes India–China competition in all three areas of diplomacy, economy and military security, the authors are of the view that, the most fundamental motivation of China and India in this competition is to achieve power and security and not economic objectives. While China’s strategic calculation leans towards its ambitions to gain greater power in the geopolitical order, India’s strategic calculation leans towards ensuring its security. By using qualitative methods and utilizing secondary data including books, treatises, articles and policy briefs$\dots$, this paper analyzes the strategic calculations of India and China in South Asia. The paper argues that China’s intention is to emulate and then overtake India in the very region of India’s traditional influence, while India’s strategy is to maintain and strengthen its number one position in the region. Though China’s influence in the region seems to have overwhelmed over India, India with all its internal forces is also hindering China’s penetrating steps into South Asian region.

Since its launch in 2013, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has attracted frequent commentary and analysis. Much of these discussions have focused on its effectiveness and viability as a large-scale economic as well as geopolitical project. This paper contributes to that discussion by exploring BRI’s impact on regional organizations, specifically in South Asia. Using South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) as a case study, I argue that BRI’s impact on regional organization is inadequately understood. BRI is not a competitor to regional organizations, but its presence in a region creates a priority conundrum for member states i.e., members who join effectively must mainline the BRI into their national interests. By offering transactional functionality, BRI offers member states the opportunity to access immediate tangible benefits like foreign investment and infrastructure development. While states continue to be the members of various international and regional organizations, their commitment and policy priorities inevitably end up aligning with BRI if they choose to sign up. With BRI as a part of their national interest, states inadvertently cede policy autonomy, especially on issues of concern for China. This creates a situation that grants China a voice in organizations where it’s not even a member. This impacts the character and culture of regional organizations creating relevancy and effectiveness concerns.

The Susceptible, Infected and Recover (SIR) model is a very simple model to estimate the dynamics of an epidemic. In the current pandemic due to Covid-19, the SIR model has been used to estimate the dynamics of infection for Bangladesh, India, Pakistan and compared with that of China. Numerical solutions are used to obtain the value of parameters for the SIR model. It is predicted that the active case in Pakistan due to the SARS-CoV-2 will be comparable with that in China whereas it will be low for Bangladesh and India. The basic reproduction number, with fluctuations, for South Asian countries are predicted to be less than that of China. The susceptible population is also estimated to be under a million for Bangladesh and India but it becomes very large for Pakistan.

This paper assesses the value of using Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) to account for the spatially and temporally diverse and diffuse potential impacts of hydropower development in South Asia’s Koshi basin. A policy and practice review and key stakeholder interviews identified opportunities for SEA to improve existing planning procedures, and also barriers to effective adoption. Whilst stakeholders are interested in employing SEA to evaluate cumulative impacts, institutional blockages and an economic development imperative for power generation leave little space for consideration of alternative scenarios as part of SEA. The analysis is conducted through the formulation and application of a conceptual framework (CFW) for SEA best practice which is then used to identify priority next-steps for a more dynamic application of SEA in the region.

Striking a balance between the need to achieve socio-economic growth and to conserve and sustainably use natural resources has become a pressing requirement globally, especially in developing nations. Strategic environmental assessment (SEA) that recognises and integrates environmental, social and economic considerations into policies, plans and programmes is a recognised and effective planning tool in more than 90 countries across the globe.

The paper reflects on changing trends in SEA uptake and increasing momentum for its application in South Asia. Evidence suggests that various drivers including voluntary practice and donor driven impact assessments are favouring the uptake of SEA as a robust and futuristic planning support tool for sustainable growth in multiple economic sectors.

The paper draws on numerous examples of SEA and ‘SEA-like’ instruments applied in different sectors in South Asia and identifies growth sectors where SEA has a significant potential to synchronise conservation and sustainable development objectives.

South Asia is at a crossroads with growing population, rising per capita income, expanding economies, and increasing energy demand. With growing industrial, commercial, and transport sectors along with rising urban and middle-income consumers, the energy use is increasing at unprecedented rates to meet the ambitious poverty-reduction targets. All countries of the region are facing critical scenarios ranging from depleting indigenous energy resources for developing long-term energy cooperation plans to ensuring energy security. South Asian countries are highly dependent on imported fuels, especially liquid hydrocarbon, for transport. For instance, India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh meet less of their energy demand with indigenous sources and thus face mounting energy import bills. Maldives depends on oil products to meet its energy needs. Nepal and Bhutan have huge hydroelectric potential. At the same time, there is a very wide variation in the energy consumption levels in South Asian countries. The high potential of hydropower in South Asia can reduce the reliance of the region on importing fossil fuel, increase the demand from indigenous resources, raise the energy security level, and reduce the emission levels. Therefore, energy security is vital for improved economic growth and to attain poverty reduction in the region, and thus calling for development and utilization of locally available renewable energy along with intraregional energy cooperation to help mitigate individual country energy security risks in the context of climate change is required.