Narrow Results

This paper attempts to distil the key conclusions from the very large literature on the empirics of growth and to apply them to the development record of the five major Southeast Asian economies for which we have reasonably long-term data — Indonesia, Malaysia, The Philippines, Singapore and Thailand. These five display a considerable range of development outcomes, ranging from consistently high growth, to episodes of boom and crisis, and to low average growth. After estimating a series of general empirical models from a large sample of countries, we examine how well these fit the observed outcomes in these particular Southeast Asian countries. Our broad finding is that the average model does reasonably well in explaining outcomes in Singapore and Thailand, but that the residuals for Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines are quite large and persistent across different specifications.

The paper presents an analysis of 40 years of measurements of geographic location (longitude, latitude) and power (wind speed) of tropical storms and typhoons over South-East Asia seas, mainly the South China Sea and the Philippine Sea. The results demonstrate the growing intensity of duration of the most severe events. The analysis includes singular spectrum analysis of wind speed series in the period 1960–2000 to identify two sub-periods of roughly similar behavior. Then, the recorded events and occurrences are classified statistically. The most extreme ones from the 1st and 2nd sub-period are plotted as functions of their geographic co-ordinates to assess the spatial evolution of their location. Next, the escalating power and mostly duration of the most extreme typhoons are examined with extreme probability distributions to quantify the resulting climate change consequences in the studied region. Finally, all results are reiterated in the form of conclusions and suggestions for potential follow-up research.

We examine the potential for farmers in South-East Asia to adapt to climate change using a survey of farmers from Bangladesh, Indonesia, Sri Lanka, Thailand, and Vietnam. We model farmers’ current choices using cross-sectional analysis. We test the climate sensitivity of when to plant, which crop to plant, whether to irrigate, and how much inputs to use. We find that all these choices are sensitive to climate in this region. Farmers are likely to adapt to future climate change by growing more rice and oilseed crops, planting more often from November through March, and relying more heavily on ground water irrigation for water short seasons.

A survey of farmers in Bangladesh, Indonesia, Sri Lanka, Thailand, and Vietnam reveals that farmers are keenly aware of even slight changes in their climate. Over 90% of the farmers interviewed perceived small changes in temperature or precipitation patterns where they lived. Over half claimed to have changed their irrigation, timing, or crop choices because of climate change. Although the link between perceived changes and stated adaptations is weak, farmers are aware of the types of changes they need to make in response to climate change in South-East Asia. Adaptation responses must be firmly grounded in not only local conditions, but also the views of participants at the front lines of climate change impacts. The knowledge base of farmers grappling with the challenges of climate change must be taken into account when policy responses to support adaptation are formulated.

This study finds that South-East Asian farming is sensitive to climate change. Traditional Ricardian studies at the country and regional levels reveal that net revenue is affected by seasonal climate. A structural Ricardian model of growing season choice reveals climate change will reduce net revenues in the near term by 4–8% and in the long term by 10–18%. The implications of this impact on key sustainable development goals such as poverty reduction is likely to be profound. The study finds that farmers who rely on cultivating in three seasons will be especially hard hit by climate change relative to those that rely only on a single season. The results indicate that farmers will switch from 3 seasons to 1 season per year and reduce some of the losses that they would otherwise sustain. An analysis of crop adaptation finds that farmers will also adjust irrigation, crop choice, and the timing of planting in response to climate change. The livestock adaptation study finds that farmers will move towards livestock as climate warms. Farmers will also shift their choice of species away from large animals and move towards small animals. An analysis of perceptions finds that farmers throughout the region are aware that temperature is rising and they generally perceive that precipitation is falling. Half of the farmers interviewed have begun to take measures such as those reported in this study to adapt to climate change. The overall results suggest that acting on their self-interest, the agriculture sector will undertake a great deal of adaptation on its own. However, measures taken by the government such as providing up-to-date weather reports, extension, irrigation and assistance with new varieties can also be effective.

Investigations of land management impacts on hydrology are well developed in South-East Asia, having been greatly extended by national organizations in the last two decades. Regional collaborative efforts, such as the ASEAN–US watershed programme, have helped develop skills and long-running monitoring programmes. Work in different countries is significant for particular aspects: the powerful effects of both cyclones and landsliding in Taiwan, the significance of lahars in Java, of small-scale agriculture in Thailand and plantation establishment in Malaysia. Different aid programmes have contributed specialist knowledge such as British work on reservoir sedimentation, Dutch, Swedish and British work on softwood plantations and US work in hill-tribe agriculture. Much has been achieved through individual university research projects, including PhD and MSc theses. The net result is that for most countries there is now good information on changes in the rainfall–run-off relationship due to forest disturbance or conversion, some information on the impacts on sediment delivery and erosion of hillslopes, but relatively little about the dynamics and magnitude of nutrient losses. Improvements have been made in the ability to model the consequences of forest conversion and of selective logging and exciting prospects exist for the development of better predictions of transfer of water from the hillslopes to the stream channels using techniques such as multilevel modelling. Understanding of the processes involved has advanced through the detailed monitoring made possible at permanent field stations such as that at Danum Valley, Sabah.