Narrow Results

This work proposes a monthly average forecast model for Taiwan stocks index based on linear regression. Through analysis, we try to find the factors that affect the index, then build models to forecast the index in coming months, and also identify a suitable time period for the training datasets. The results of applying the proposed model to conduct trading simulation for Taiwan stock index futures in 2017 show that the return rate is 32.65%. In most of the cases, this return rate is higher than the return rate of the other investment funds in Taiwan in the same year.

In 2022, the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war, the disruption of the global supply chain, and many other factors have had a huge impact on the global economy. To control the high inflation rate and curb economic overheating, on March 16, the Fed raised interest rates for the first time since 2018 to curb inflation and stabilize prices. The Fed’s interest rate hikes have a significant impact in many areas, including the stock market. To find the relationship between them, the paper uses computer simulation modeling. This paper first introduces the impact caused by the Fed’s interest rate hikes on different markets and analyzes the spillover effect. Then this paper selects data from the USD exchange rate and Apple stock price before and after the Fed’s interest rate hikes and uses the ARMA-GARCH model to model and analyses the data to study how the Apple company has been affected by the Fed’s interest rate hikes and predict the future development of the Apple stock price. Finally, this paper analyzes the factors that will affect the stock market. The analyzing process is mainly based on the Stata application.