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This paper examines the international effects of Chinese policy uncertainty shock. Using the factor-augmented vector autoregression (FAVAR) model which can accommodate several economic variables from multiple countries, we model Chinese policy uncertainty jointly with three latent factors extracted from industrial production index, import value and export value. The results reveal that the change of one standard deviation of Chinese economic policy uncertainty (EPU) has a negative interference effect on global trade markets and industrial production, and so does the fiscal policy uncertainty (FPU). However, the impact of Chinese trade policy and monetary policy on three latent factors is not statistically significant. A country-level analysis shows that due to the heterogeneity of the economic structure and trade structure of each economy, countries have different responses to the uncertainty of Chinese economic policy. In particular, the extent to which imports and exports of each economy are affected is asymmetric.

This study scrutinizes the effect of financial inclusion (FI) on trade by employing the Newey West standard approach, Feasible Generalized Least Square (FGLS), Pooled Ordinary Least Square (POLS) regression, Fixed Effect Model (FEM) and Random Effect Model (REM) on 24 developing economies from 2004 to 2020. Results found strong, significant and positive association linking FI and trade. Policy recommendations are developing countries should take serious measures to deepen FI which will boost the effect on trade. Furthermore, these economies should expand trade in new markets and use formal financial institutions as channels for carrying out trade transactions.

A dynamic between foreign direct investment (FDI) and international trade, and the level of urbanization, has been observed in many developing countries. This study seeks to fill a literature gap on the extent that FDI and international trade impact developing Asian economies through urbanization. The study explores the relationship between FDI, international trade, and urbanization in 31 developing Asian economies from 1991 to 2019, utilizing the dynamic panel model. Empirical results imply the significant effect of FDI inflows and trade openness on urbanization in developing Asia. The impact is clearly observed following the global financial crisis despite increased deglobalization. This finding supports the existence of structural changes and the transformation of economies in the region, which, among other factors, are driven by stronger global supply chains and improved logistics infrastructure in developing Asia.

Developing countries have greatly benefited from globalization, coinciding with economic growth and structural transformation. The standard trade theory postulates that trade openness contributes to poverty alleviation directly by changing factor proportions of production and indirectly through the trickle-down effect of growth. Existing multicountry studies using the trade-to-gross-domestic-product ratio to measure openness often fail to find a direct effect of openness on poverty over and above the growth–poverty nexus. This paper is motivated by the concern that the failure of these studies to detect the effectiveness of the factor proportion channel may be due to limitations of the commonly used measure of trade openness: the trade-to-gross-domestic-product ratio. Using a newly constructed index of trade openness, which I dub “the price convergence index,” I find a significant direct effect of openness on poverty reduction. The results also suggest that the impact of growth on poverty is greater for economies with more open trade regimes.

The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) was established in 1989. APEC member countries are remarkably different from each other in many respects. The traditional optimum currency area (OCA) theory may not be suitable for application to APEC. This paper stresses business cycles and trade intensity, which are included in OCA theory, and considers whether or not the "currency union" is suitable. The paper develops a procedure for applying OCA theory to APEC and examines these criteria while taking into account the endogeneity of these criteria. The result indicates that adopting the dollar for currency union is much more reasonable than adopting the yen.

This study empirically investigates the impact of import protection on female labor using a panel dataset of 211 countries. Our findings suggest that import protection increases female labor participation rate in capital abundant countries, whereas decreases in labor abundant ones. This result is also in line with the stylized view that female labor benefits from labor intensive production which requires less formal training and lower job skills.

This paper is an empirical investigation on economic growth for Malaysia, with focus on income inequality, foreign direct investment (FDI), financial development and trade. Co-integrating regression procedures namely, fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS), canonical co-integrating regression (CCR) and dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) were employed. Positive relationship between growth with financial development and trade are found to be consistent across all estimations. Income inequality on the other hand though negative, does not seem to exhibit robust significant statistical relationship with growth. The orders of integration for variables used have been demonstrated to be governed such that a long-run relationship prevails.

Developing economies, especially emerging market economies (EMEs), face complex challenges in investing for growth, including building infrastructure. Many developing economies are trying to sustain the growth catch-up process, and manage disruptions related to transition to the “new economy”, as well as headwinds from protectionist tendencies in trade and technology. Investing for the long term — including in infrastructure — has therefore become a critical issue. In this context, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has captured the imagination of the world. An ambitious initiative involving more than 70 countries collaborating through investments in infrastructure, it seeks to improve connectivity for cross-border trade and investment, and generate economic benefits for the countries involved. It seeks to address large infrastructure gaps and build capacities for growth. And it helps countries unable to get affordable financing for plugging savings-investment shortfalls. However, the BRI has drawn criticisms over China’s underlying geopolitical motives, and BRI partner countries have been warned of the risk of becoming heavily indebted or getting locked into business platforms created by China. This paper aims to contribute to the policy debate over the BRI from an ASEAN perspective. It analyzes the reasons for the persistent infrastructure investment gaps in EMEs from an ASEAN perspective; assesses whether BRI is more of a development opportunity or a debt trap; outlines a framework to address the risks and concerns in order to unlock the potential benefits; and uses case studies both outside of and within the ASEAN region to distil key themes needing policy attention.

In recent years, China has been catching-up with other advanced economies and become one of the “leading geese” in the Asian economy. China not only plays a leading role in regional production network but also in various regional economic cooperation. Indonesia, being one of the following geese, needs to adjust its position to benefit from this change in global and regional order. While other more advanced economies have less to offer, Indonesia has gradually moved closer toward China in terms of economic cooperation. Using the flying geese model, this paper argues that China’s BRI might change trade and investment trends in Indonesia. China BRI might complement the role of Japan as a catalyst for economic development in the Asian region in general and in Indonesia in particular. There is no official BRI project agreed by Indonesia so far. However, there are a number completed and ongoing China–Indonesia projects, which arguably might pave the way for future BRI investment. Currently, apart from the Jakarta–Bandung High speed railways, most of the projects are concentrated in resource-exploitation needed by China and the fulfilment of Indonesian development needs, such as power generation, mineral smelters and industrial parks. From the Beijing’s perspective, these projects are perceived as part of BRI. Since these so-called BRI projects have not been completed, it is therefore impossible to assess their impacts on Indonesia’s industrialization at this point. However, we can still argue that BRI might have initiated a new type of investment that might in turn change the industrial trends, structure and performance in Indonesia. If this change leads to improvement in products quality or value added, industrial upgrading, technological transfer and export boost, then one may argue that BRI has brought promised benefits to the host economy (i.e., Indonesia). Otherwise, the benefits would be negligible.

This paper presents a simple model to address why openness to trade increases the dispersion in wages, unemployment, and capital intensity. However, the dispersion is stronger for developing countries. We argue that the export-oriented policy that most developing countries have widely adopted in recent decades, amplifies the dispersion in these countries. This paper also helps explain the conflicting evidence between two groups of developing countries: East Asian and Latin American. In comparison to the latter, the former has a track record since the 1960s of a miraculous performance in narrowing wage inequality and unemployment by practicing export-oriented policies.

This paper investigates the effect of exchange rate volatility on bilateral trade between Taiwan and Indonesia via 19 export and import industries. Considering the existence of an asymmetric effect of exchange rate volatility on trade, we employ an asymmetric ARDL model and arrive at the following main results. First, the long-run asymmetric effect of exchange rate volatility shows far higher impacts on Taiwan’s exports to Indonesia than on Taiwan’s imports from Indonesia. Second, the short-run asymmetric effect of exchange rate volatility causes unstable changes on the trade amounts for most of Taiwan’s export and import industries with Indonesia.

This article briefly describes the international conference and exhibition of the modernization of Chinese medicine and health products held in Hong Kong.

This paper develops a trade model for a technologically leading country and a developing country that exploits a renewable natural resource. Technology diffuses from the technological leader to the developing country through foreign direct investment (FDI). Alternatively, innovative activities can also be carried out in the developing economy. We prove the existence and uniqueness of an equilibrium path along which both countries grow at the same rate, maintaining the natural-resource stock at a constant level. The saddle-point property for this equilibrium is proved and a sensitivity analysis is carried out. The steady-state growth rate and consumption under both scenarios are compared and the effect of resource abundance analyzed.

This paper revisits the link between strategic trade policies and the mode of competition in the product market, emphasizing the emergence of a different mode of competition if only one of the two governments implements such a policy. We show that with an endogenous mode of competition and an asymmetric strategic export policy we can lead to a mixed Cournot–Bertrand competition between firms. If the game is sequential and the second government wishes to react to this policy, we show that the final equilibrium will be even more unfavorable to the newly protected national leader: the second firm would not prefer this retaliation to be implemented. This reinforces the interest of the asymmetrical framework of this model.

This paper focuses on the most recent trends of Chinese finance (foreign direct investment (FDI) and development loans) in Latin America and their impact on economic development. In particular, this paper explores the economic and institutional factors that attract loans and FDI from China to Latin America. Based on data from the Chinese Ministry of Commerce and the United Nations on Chinese FDI and development loans to Latin America, this article argues that Chinese capital flows to the region, rather than politically motivated, are mainly motivated by trade interests, the evolution of the market of commodities, and natural resources-related policy goals. These capital flows are functional to the Chinese government’s use of soft power in the region, but these goals are secondary to market-based interests.

How environmental-related trade disputes are handled within the WTO have become the subject of increasingly intense debate amongst environmentalists. This paper considers whether the process used in dispute settlement is appropriate for environmental-related cases, given their complex nature. The paper looks at the adequacy of the current approach in terms of the extent to which dispute decisions can be seen to meet the main WTO objectives of maximisation of economic welfare — a concept that requires recognition of social and environmental costs and values. The author suggests an alternative approach, using a comprehensive data analysis framework, and shows that such an approach is not in evidence currently. While such an approach is considered as a conceptually ideal method for analysis, a number of practical limitations to its implementation are noted.

This paper builds an econometric model that attempts to explain the effect of global trade on the environment from data provided by the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) at Purdue University. We estimated stable parameters for econometric models to forecast the impact of doubling carbon dioxide (2 × CO₂) levels in the atmosphere. Robustness is checked against the Specific Factor Model in trade theory. The overall and zonal predictions for the lower and higher latitudes and the Northern and Southern Hemispheres are compared with the norms. The estimates of the model are also used as inputs into several computable general equilibrium (CGE) models to explore regional welfare impacts by climate change scenarios. The model's prediction comes within range of the norms and therefore, should be an important addition to the stock of pedagogic tools explaining the relationship between trade and the environment.

Stock market forecast improves the economic development of the country. People invest in the stock market at high risk without performing the appropriate analysis. So, it is essential to identify the stock market value prediction through existing stock market datasets. This analysis can be made through machine learning algorithms. Machine Learning is defined as the process through which only investors will gain the profit when investing the money into the stock market. Many prediction models have been contributed by the existing investigators to estimate the stock value. The contribution by Hybrid Heuristic algorithm is that it provides a coherent future prediction of stock market prices and investors will also get the insights about how to sell and buy a specific stock to get more profit. Gann square technique is used to forecast a price maneuver dependent on value, pattern analysis and period which is also used for intraday online trading without prior knowledge.

Germany and China have substantially enhanced their economic ties over the last decade. Germany is China’s biggest trading partners in EU while China is Germany’s second largest trading partner outside Europe in term of total turnover. This study attempts to assess trade potential between Germany and China using an augmented gravity model. It detects a gap between the actual Germany–China bilateral trade and the level that is predicted by their export potentials. It is reasonable to expect the existence of de facto trade preferential between the two countries. Because of the high complementarity of their economic structures, Germany and China will benefit from closer economic ties and increase their competition in global market. Moreover, the enhanced bilateral relationship tends to help both of them exploit the growing economic power to increase their individual influence in regional governance.

Despite a general trend of increasing labor income inequality, there have been differences in the timing, intensity and even direction of these changes across OECD countries. These stylized facts have led to numerous studies about the main determinants of labor income inequality and, as a result, a significant revision of the previous consensus about the key drivers. The most researched channels include skill-biased technological change, international trade, immigration, education as well as the role of labor market policies and institutions.