Narrow Results

This paper investigates China’s grain trade potential and the influencing factors with RCEP partner countries by using the stochastic frontier gravity and trade inefficiency models and explores the impact of the RCEP negotiations on grain trade cooperation between China and RCEP partner countries. The research results verify that the institutional distance, economic distance, and tariff level hinder the grain trade efficiency between China and RCEP partner countries, where the tariff level has the smallest resistance. The transportation and communication infrastructure level can significantly improve the grain trade efficiency, but the transportation infrastructure level has a greater stimulative effect. China’s grain trade potential with RCEP partner countries is enormous, and there is evident heterogeneity in the grain trade potential of different countries. The grain trade relations between China and RCEP partner countries have been improved after the RCEP negotiations. However, there are still greater trade potential and expansion space for New Zealand and Laos. Therefore, some policy suggestions are put forward, such as establishing the risk assessment and early warning system, implementing the tariff reduction measures in the agreement, and developing grain trade cooperation according to local conditions, which provides practical guidance for expanding the grain trade scale.

This study aims to assess the trade potential of Pakistan in terms of destinations and products against 101 potential trading partners while applying the gravity model and the trade potential index. The findings indicate that Pakistan’s trade/export potential is maximum with the countries which are not its traditional trading partners. On the other hand, “manufactured goods”, “misc manufactured articles” and “food groups” are the products where maximum trade/export potential exists. Results indicate that Pakistan should not only adopt proactive measures to tap non-traditional partners but it is equally important to strengthen the level of trade with its traditional trading partners.

One major objective of the new EU neighborhood policy is to move towards more trade integration between the enlarged EU and its new Eastern and Southern neighbors, i.e., Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova, as well as Southern Mediterranean and Caucasus countries. Using recent theoretical developments in gravity models, this paper derives an estimable equation, which particularly focuses on trade costs. This equation is then used to investigate the new neighbors' export potential towards the EU market. For this purpose, several Hausman and Taylor's models are implemented in order to consider the correlation between certain independent variables and the residuals which are used to calculate trade potentials. Results outline that the NNCs' export potential is generally significant, especially for the new Eastern neighbors. However, it seems that this potential is limited for Mediterranean countries, as they have already enjoyed preferential market access with regards to the EU. Finally, an extension of the analysis to Middle-East and Gulf countries also highlights significant trade potentials with the EU.