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  • articleNo Access

    Chaos Predictability in a Chemical Reactor

    The dynamics of the tubular chemical reactor with mass recycle was examined. In such a system, temperature and concentrations may oscillate chaotically. This means that state variable values are then unpredictable. In this paper, it has been shown that despite the chaos, the behavior of such a reactor can be predictable. It has been shown that this phenomenon can occur in two cases. The first case concerns intermittent chaos. It has been shown that intermittent outbursts can occur at regular intervals. The second case concerns transient chaos, i.e. a situation when chaos occurs only for a certain period of time, e.g. only during start-up. This phenomenon makes it impossible to predict what will occur in the reactor in the nearest time, but, makes it possible to precisely determine the values of the variables even in the distant future. Both of these phenomena were tested by numerical simulation of the mathematical model of the reactor.

  • articleNo Access

    Characterization of Fractal Basins Using Deep Convolutional Neural Networks

    Neural network models have recently demonstrated impressive prediction performance in complex systems where chaos and unpredictability appear. In spite of the research efforts carried out on predicting future trajectories or improving their accuracy compared to numerical methods, not sufficient work has been done on using deep learning techniques in which the unpredictability can be characterized of chaotic systems or give a general view of the global unpredictability of a system. In this work, we propose a novel approach based on deep learning techniques to measure the fractal dimension of the basins of attraction of the Duffing oscillator for a variety of parameters. As a consequence, we provide an algorithm capable of predicting fractal dimension measures as accurately as the box-counting algorithm, but with a computation speed about ten times faster.

  • articleNo Access

    WADA FRACTAL BASINS OF ATTRACTION IN A ZERO-STIFFNESS VIBRATION ISOLATION SYSTEM

    Fractals01 Mar 2020

    A fractal basin boundary is a Wada fractal basin boundary if it contains at least three different basins. The corresponding basin is called a Wada fractal basin. Previous results show that some oscillators possess Wada fractal basins with common basin boundaries. Here we find that a nonlinear vibration isolation system can possess abundant coexisting basins and every basin is a Wada fractal basin. These Wada fractal basin boundaries separate different basins in the different regions. A proper classification of these Wada fractal basins is provided according to the order of saddles and Wada numbers. Basin organization is systematic and all basins spiral outward toward the infinity. The entangled basin boundaries are described by the manifolds of saddles and basins (tongues) accumulation.

  • articleNo Access

    Randomness: Quantum versus classical

    Recent tremendous development of quantum information theory has led to a number of quantum technological projects, e.g. quantum random generators. This development had stimulated a new wave of interest in quantum foundations. One of the most intriguing problems of quantum foundations is the elaboration of a consistent and commonly accepted interpretation of a quantum state. Closely related problem is the clarification of the notion of quantum randomness and its interrelation with classical randomness. In this short review, we shall discuss basics of classical theory of randomness (which by itself is very complex and characterized by diversity of approaches) and compare it with irreducible quantum randomness. We also discuss briefly “digital philosophy”, its role in physics (classical and quantum) and its coupling to the information interpretation of quantum mechanics (QM).

  • articleNo Access

    Unpredictability of AI: On the Impossibility of Accurately Predicting All Actions of a Smarter Agent

    The young field of AI Safety is still in the process of identifying its challenges and limitations. In this paper, we formally describe one such impossibility result, namely Unpredictability of AI. We prove that it is impossible to precisely and consistently predict what specific actions a smarter-than-human intelligent system will take to achieve its objectives, even if we know the terminal goals of the system. In conclusion, the impact of Unpredictability on AI Safety is discussed.

  • chapterNo Access

    Chapter 2: Fundamentals of Complexity Theory and Human Complex Adaptive Systems

      This chapter is an introduction to complexity theory (encompassing chaos — a subset of complexity), a nascent domain, although, it possesses a historical root. Some fundamental properties of chaos/complexity (including complexity mindset, nonlinearity, interconnectedness, interdependency, far-from-equilibrium, butterfly effect, determinism/in-determinism, unpredictability, bifurcation, deterministic chaotic dynamic, complex dynamic, complex adaptive dynamic, dissipation, basin of attraction, attractor, chaotic attractor, strange attractor, phase space, rugged landscape, red queen race, holism, self-organization, self-transcending constructions, scale invariance, historical dependency, constructionist hypothesis and emergence), and its development are briefly examined. In particular, the similarities (sensitive dependence on initial conditions, unpredictability) and differences between deterministic chaotic systems (DCS) and complex adaptive systems (CAS) are analyzed. The edge of emergence (2nd critical value, a new concept) is also conceived to provide a more comprehensive explanation of the complex adaptive dynamic (CAD) and emergence. Subsequently, a simplified system spectrum is introduced to illustrate the attributes, and summarize the relationships of the various categories of common systems.

      Next, the recognition that human organizations are nonlinear living systems (high finite dimensionality CAS) with adaptive and thinking agents is examined. This new comprehension indicates that a re-calibration in thinking is essential. In the human world, high levels of human intelligence/consciousness (the latent impetus that is fundamentally stability-centric) drives a redefined human adaptive and evolution dynamic encompassing better potentials of self-organization or self-transcending constructions, autocatalysis, circular causation, localized spaces/networks, hysteresis, futuristic, and emergent of new order (involving a multi-layer structure and dynamic) — vividly indicating that intelligence/consciousness-centric is extremely vital. Simultaneously, complexity associated properties/characteristics in human organizations must be better scrutinized and exploited — that is, establishing appropriate complexity-intelligence linkages is a significant necessity. In this respect, nurturing of the intelligence mindset and developing the associated paradigmatic shift is inevitable.

      A distinct attempt (the basic strategic approach) of the new intelligence mindset is to organize around human intrinsic intelligence — intense intelligence-intelligence linkages that exploits human intelligence/consciousness sources individually and collectively by focusing on intelligence/consciousness-centricity, complexity-centricity, network-centricity, complexity-intelligence linkages, collective intelligence, org-consciousness, complex networks, spaces of complexity (better risk management <=> new opportunities <=> higher sustainability) and prepares for punctuation points (better crisis management <=> collectively more intelligent <=> higher resilience/sustainability) concurrently — illustrating the significance of self-organizing capability and emergence-intelligence capacity. The conceptual development introduced will serve as the basic foundation of the intelligent organization (IO) theory.

    • chapterNo Access

      Chapter 3: The Intelligence Mindset and Intelligence Paradigm

        In this chapter, an introductory analysis of human intelligence and consciousness is executed to establish a conceptual foundation for the intelligent organization theory. Fundamentally, the new intelligence mindset and thinking, and intelligence paradigm focus on high intelligence/ consciousness-centricity. It concentrates on human intrinsic intelligence/ consciousness sources (its intense intelligence and consciousness — awareness and mindfulness), and stipulates that organizing around intelligence (a strategic component of the complexity-intelligence strategy) is the new strategic direction to be adopted by all human organizations in the present knowledge-intensive, fast changing, and not always predictable environment (limited predictability). In addition, the characteristics and variation in capabilities of intelligence and consciousness are further scrutinized using an intelligence spectrum (compared to other biological intelligence sources on this planet — encompassing proto-intelligence, basic life-intelligence, basic human intelligence and advanced human intelligence). In the intelligent organization theory, consciousness (awareness, mindfulness) only exists in the living/biological world, and mindfulness is confined to humanity.

        Subsequently, intelligence/consciousness management and its associated dynamics that are critical activities of intelligent human organization (iCAS) are more deeply examined with respect to complexity-centricity (encompassing attributes such as stability-centricity, autopoiesis, symbiosis, self-centric, network-centric, org-centric, independency, interdependency, intelligence-intelligence linkage, engagement, self-organization/ self-transcending constructions, local space, complex networks, constructionist hypothesis and emergence). Concurrently, the urgency and impact for nurturing the new intelligence mindset and intelligence paradigm is also discussed. In a situation with escalating complexity density, this paradigmatic shift in mindset and thinking in leadership, governance and management of human organizations is highly significant for higher functionality and coherency — to all human interacting agents (both leaders and followers), as well as the organizations themselves.

        Another component of the complexity-intelligence strategy examined is the nurturing of an intelligent biotic and complex adaptive macro-structure that will serve all human organizations better (towards higher coherency, synergy and structural capacity). The analysis clearly indicates the necessity of systemic transformation or structural reform that is more coherent with intelligence/consciousness, and information processing and knowledge acquisition capability. In this case, a greater operational/ practical utility and higher structural capacity can be achieved with the presence of the intelligent biotic macro-structure and agent-agent/ system micro-structure (principle of locality) that concurrently supports the intelligent complex adaptive dynamic (iCAD) better — a finer synchrony between structure and dynamic — higher intelligence advantage.

      • chapterNo Access

        Chapter 4: Multi-Layer Structure/Dynamic and Structural Capacity of Human Organizations

          The inherent micro-structure (agent-agent/system) of human organizations has been introduced in Chapters 2 and 3. Fundamentally, human organizations are composite complex adaptive systems with human beings as interacting agents (each an intrinsic complex adaptive system). This chapter further analyzes the basic conceptual foundation of the multi-layer structure, including advantages of the intelligent biotic macro-structure (with inherent features similar to that of an intelligent biological being — a structural reform), and its unique and more integrative complex adaptive dynamic in intelligent human organizations (towards iCAD). The necessity of nurturing an intelligent biotic macro-structure with vital characteristics that better synchronize and enhance sophisticated information/knowledge-related activities is highly beneficial — achieving a higher structural capacity. Thus, the attributes, functions and higher structural capacity of the more intelligent biotic macro-structure can reinforced the competitiveness of any categories of human organizations extensively.

          In this respect, connecting and engaging of intelligence/consciousness sources (individual and collective), organizing around intelligence, intelligence/ consciousness management, and the intelligent biotic macrostructure are mutually enhancing (towards higher coherency). Apparently, being intelligence/consciousness-centric is a beneficial and critical activator (strategic foundation) of the intelligence paradigmatic shift. In the present context, the roles and integration of intelligence, information and knowledge, as well as nurturing a ‘common’ language and elevating coherency in human organizations (with respect to the macro-structure and micro-structure, as well as their higher collectiveness — collectiveness capacity) must be more deeply scrutinized and utilized. The presence and significance of the individual intelligence enhancer encompassing three entities namely, intelligence, knowledge, and theory in the human thinking systems, and the necessity of nurturing a similar and effective intelligence enhancer at organizational level are analyzed. Subsequently, the supporting roles and contributions of artificial intelligence systems are also examined.

          In between the macro-structure and micro-structure are two meso-structures. In the intelligent organization theory, the complexity meso-structure encompasses spaces of complexity and punctuation points. In this respect, complexity is a highly significant focal point, and the exploitation of co-existence of order and complexity is a new necessity (complexity-centricity). Next, the network meso-structure encompassing complex network (network of networks) is also an inherent structure and dynamic in all human organizations. This meso-structure is briefly introduced, and will be more deeply analyzed with respect to governance (network-centricity, network governance).

          Hence, it is crucial to lead and manage human organizations with a strategic approach that integrates the above multi-layer structure/ dynamic at all time so that a higher structural capacity, collectiveness capacity, adaptive capacity, self-organizing capacity, and emergence-intelligence capacity can be nurtured. In the current highly competitive context, possessing these positive capabilities to elevate coherency and synergetic characteristics (including social consensus and the construal aspect) and dynamic is also highly crucial — a key focus of the complexity-intelligence strategy (towards achieving higher organizational mental cohesion). Hence, the significance and impact of nurturing intelligent human organizations with the complexity-intelligence-centric and network-centric approach that leads to the emergent of smarter evolvers and emergent strategists must be better understood and adopted. (The conceptual foundation on structural-dynamic coherency and synergy in intelligent human organizations developed in this chapter will be more deeply reviewed and exploited in later chapters.)

        • chapterNo Access

          Entering the Intelligence Era

            This chapter introduces some significant changes taking place in the world that are affecting all categories of human organizations, as well as all individuals. The appropriateness, importance and exploitation of certain properties of Chaos and Complexity Theory are also examined briefly. Human systems are recognized as complex adaptive systems. In particular, the fact that the edge of chaos is an unexplored space embedded with new opportunities is highlighted. This observation and recognition indicates that a recalibration of understanding is essential. A change in era and mindset is also inevitable. The new era is the intelligence era. The primary focus of the new mindset is to organize around human intrinsic intelligence.