Narrow Results

Since the global privatization of the water sector, water investment opportunities have become much more sought after. This study investigates the link between four water indices (S-Network Global Water Index, World Water Index, S&P Global Water Index and MSCI ACWI Water Utilities Index) and four water markets (Asia, Europe, Latin America and the US), using daily data for the period January 2004 to October 2022. Utilizing the Johansen test for cointegration during the pre-Global Financial Crisis (GFC), GFC, post-GFC, COVID-19 and full-sample periods, we find the existence of cointegrating vectors in the different periods. The Granger causality approach within a cointegration framework also allows us to assess the dynamic linkages between the stock price indices of the four water indices and the four water markets. To further confirm the empirical results in the cointegration framework, we employ the autoregressive distributed lag-based bounds approach for a robustness check. The testing results confirm the presence of cointegration in different (pre-GFC, GFC, post-GFC, COVID-19 and full-sample) periods. The analysis of the different periods allows us to better understand the relationship between global water indices and world water markets, which has important implications for investments (such as portfolio diversification) in the global water sector.

In this paper cointegrating relations between six East and Southeast Asian markets relative to a base cluster of three global markets are investigated in the framework of zero-non-zero (ZNZ) patterned vector error-correction modelling (VECM). The analysis focuses upon market relations both before and after the Asian currency crisis. The strength of integration between markets is also evaluated by extending Geweke's measurement approach within this framework. The results show that, since the crisis, estimated integration strengths have become more powerful between the Asian and global markets, with the US market leading both the Asian markets and the markets of Japan and the UK.

This paper investigates whether the introduction of trading by qualified foreign institutional investors (QFIIs) has impacted the lead and volatility behavior of the futures market when the macroeconomic effects and some major economic events are controlled. First, we detect that some market inefficiency exists in Taiwan index futures market. Second, the evidence shows a strengthening in the lead of index futures over index spot markets following the introduction of trading by QFIIs. Third, we find evidence of an increase in the level of futures market volatility, implying that the quantity of information flowing into the futures market increases following the onset of trading by QFIIs. Finally, the asymmetries do not reduce after the opening up of the futures market to QFIIs. This finding is inconsistent with the view that the introduction of informed foreign investors may improve the reliability and quality of information and mitigate the effect of noise traders on market volatility.

The relation between China's RMB exchange rate and US real economy has recently become a hotly debated issue among scholars, researchers, and policymakers. Using monthly data from Nov. 2001–Nov. 2010, this paper employs the cointegration test and VECM model to capture the relationships among the Chinese RMB exchange rate, US–China bilateral trade, and the US unemployment rate. Results indicate that the US unemployment rate is negatively correlated with the RMB exchange rate. Impulse response analysis discloses the transmission mechanism of RMB appreciation: an appreciation of the RMB leads to a drop in US–China bilateral trade, which associates with a slight rise in the US unemployment rate. A potential explanation for these unconventional results lie in the complementary industrial structures between the two countries. Some policy suggestions are made at the end.

The study examines the behavioral reactions of foreign and domestic institutional investors in the Indian stock market. It poses some critical questions on whether these two types of institutional investors have common investing behavior, and whether foreign institutional investors (FIIs) affect domestic institutional investors’ (DIIs) strategies. Vector error correction model (VECM) is used to examine the trading and investing behavior of these institutional investors. Granger causality test is used to check if foreign institutional investment strategy influences domestic institutional strategy or vice versa. The results indicate that neither foreign institutional investors’ sell (FIISELL) activities affect domestic institutional investors’ sell (DIISELL) activities nor DIISELL affects FIISELL. This may have a crucial policy implication that both institutional investors have independent trading strategies, especially when it comes to selling stocks. But both institutional investors’ sale transactions do affect their own buy transactions implying that any of the institutions’ selling activities should be supported by their buying activities.

This paper explores the cointegration between agricultural commodity prices, crude oil prices and exchange rates. Vector autoregressions (VAR) or vector error correction models (VECMs) are applied to price data for French maize and milling wheat, U.S. corn prices and spot and future oil prices. The series are split between 2000-2007 and 2009–2019 omitting the “Great Recession” allowing for analysis of structural market changes. While oil prices influence futures pricing, the link is neither stable nor widespread. Modeling of time series in search of cointegration must consider structural market changes. Results from a “one-model-fits-all” approach are unlikely to be satisfactory.

Research Highlights

• •An assessment of institutional quality, innovation, and economic growth in developing countries.
• •Long-run causality from innovation and institutional quality to economic growth is present.
• •Short-run directions of causality are varied among variables of interest.
• •Innovation and institutional quality generally positively impact economic growth.

Continuous innovation is the lifeblood of a competitive economy. Furthermore, and arguably, the existence of institutions of governance of quality can be a catalyst for emerging economies to transition up the universal innovation value chain. In this context, we investigate temporal causal interactions among institutional quality, innovation, and economic growth for developing countries (DCs) spanning the period of 2005–2020. Employing a vector error-correction model (VECM), we find that for each case and specification (49 instances), there is evidence of the long-run causality from institutional quality and innovation to economic growth. Stated another way, in the long run, institutional quality and innovation Granger-cause economic growth. However, the short-run causality results differ depending on the specific measures of innovation and institutional quality. The strongest short-run conclusion is support for the feedback hypothesis for economic growth and innovation where there is a strong endogenous relationship between innovation, institutional governance, and economic growth. The empirical analysis shows over 70% of our observations support that economic growth and innovation jointly determine each other in the short run. The results suggest that DCs should develop and pursue long-term growth strategies that simultaneously develop innovation and improve institutional governance.

This study aims to empirically investigate the impact of a set of macroeconomic variables including balance of trade, FDI, exchange rate, and inflation on the balance of payments (BOP) of Afghanistan using quarterly data from the second quarter of 2004 to the fourth quarter of 2020 (2004Q2 to 2020Q4). The paper uses the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), and Johansen co-integration test for analysis to explore the BOP of Afghanistan and provides comparable literature to other least-developed and low-income developing countries. The findings reveal that balance of trade (BOT), foreign direct investment (FDI), and exchange rate are significant determinants of Afghanistan’s BOP in the long run. More specifically, BOT and FDI positively impact the BOP, whereas the effect of the exchange rate on the BOP is found negative. Yet, inflation has an insignificant impact on the BOP. Though all variables have an insignificant impact on the BOP in the short run, the relevant policy measures ought to consider improvement in BOT, promoting FDI, and exchange rate stability to ensure synchronized improved BOP and economic growth.

While the underground economy is not explicitly included in the measure of (GDP), the cocaine trade has been a major source of revenue for Colombia. Using quarterly cocaine prices from 1982 to 2007 published by the Office of National Drug Control Policy, this paper uses vector error correction and forecast error variance decomposition methods to look at the relationship between cocaine prices and the peso/$ nominal exchange rate. Our results indicate cocaine prices affect the value of the Colombian peso, which leads to some interesting policy implications.

This paper investigates the impact of trade openness on FDI inflows into Congo, Malawi and Swaziland. The paper identifies cointegrating relationships between trade openness and FDI inflows, amongst other determinants, for the three African economies. The Johansen cointegration test indicates a significantly positive impact of trade openness on FDI inflows into Congo and Swaziland. The impact is, however, significantly negative for Malawi. Granger causality test indicates lack of any causal effect between trade openness and FDI inflows. For all three African economies, greater participation in international trade when complemented with government expenditures and domestic investment will expectedly increase FDI inflows.

With the lack of finance, many developing nations are struggling for investment in several areas to generate an opportunity for sustainable livelihood, and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) emerged as an engine of economic growth, especially in developing nations. It helps to strengthen the economy by mainly promoting capital inflow and technical improvement into the recipient economies. However, some literatures found economic growth, responsible for the inflow of FDI. Therefore, this paper attempts to examine the causal relationship between FDI and Economic Growth in India. By running the Granger causality test in VECM settings, this study found, GDP causes inflow of FDI in India.

This article tests the effect of change in the degree of openness to import of goods and services on a country’s productivity. The idea is that by driving resources to industries in which the country has a comparative advantage, imports contribute to increased productivity in the economy. Countries from three distinct regions (OECD, Latin America and Asia), separately and together, were used to test this proposition. A feasible generalized least square estimation method is applied to determine the effect of the capital to labor ratio, openness to imports and real gross domestic product on labor productivity. A panel vector error correction model as proposed by Pesaran et al. (1999) is also performed in order to determine any causal relationship. The effect of imports on labor productivity is found to be positive and significant for the 1990–2011 period under study, strengthening the case for free trade and leading to important policy implications.

This study examines the effects of international trade and investment on output and tests the null hypothesis of Granger non-causality among trade, investment and economic growth in Canada. The long-run model is estimated using several single-equation and system estimators to assess the robustness of results across methodologies. The single-equation, OLSEG, GMM, DOLS, NLLS and FMOLS, estimates of the model provide consistent support for the positive and significant long-run effects of exports and investment on output. The ML system estimates cross-validate the cointegrating relationship and reinforce the positive effects of exports and investment and the negative effects of imports on output. The over-parameterized level-VAR estimates suggest unidirectional Granger-causality from exports, imports and investment each to output. The estimates of the model with structural breaks support the long-run relationship, though the evidence is not unambiguous ubiquitously across all the tests. The evidence supporting the positive and significant long-run effects overwhelms the evidence providing weak or no support for the effects of trade on output. The results underline the need for the acceleration of exports (and investment) to offset the demand-reducing effects of imports and escalate the altitudes of output and economic growth.

This study finds that there is evidence of a J-curve for Chile, Ecuador, and Uruguay and lack of support for a J-curve for Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, and Peru. Increased real income in the home country would improve the trade balance for Brazil and Ecuador and deteriorate the trade balance for Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Peru, and Uruguay. Increased real income in the U.S. would improve the trade balance for Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Peru, and Uruguay and deteriorate the trade balance for Brazil and Ecuador. Hence, the conventional wisdom to pursue real depreciation to improve the trade balance may not apply to some of these countries.