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  • articleOpen Access

    The Transition of International Order: Current Debates and Future Directions

    The early third millennium AD witnessed the outbreak of global crises and challenges that exposed the weaknesses of the possible unilateral order and the negative aspects of globalization. This led to a widespread debate among international relations thinkers about the transition period and the future of world order. The recent occurrence of two major global crises, namely, the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine, has accelerated this transition period, prompting representatives of different schools of international relations to think through various scenarios for the future of world order. These scenarios can be classified into several categories, including the revival of the unipolar order with new characteristics, multipolar order, new bipolar order, non-polar world, and the emergence of multiple regional hegemonies. However, due to the differences and gaps in the consolidation of power centers, as well as the lack of agreement on international norms, it is unlikely that any of these scenarios will be realized in the short term. In the absence of a pervasive, tangible threat or a fundamental shift in political culture, the rules and structures of the old order will persist, albeit in a weakened state. This will prolong the transition period and heighten instability. Thus, it is crucial to manage this transition peacefully by fostering regional alliances, while honoring the cultural and civilizational differences of the key players. Ultimately, a new world order can only emerge through dialog among major powers and consensus on the rules that will shape the international system. Until that time, the global community must prioritize maintaining stability and navigating the transition to ensure a peaceful evolution toward the future order.