East Asian Policy

The Trump–Kim Summit in Singapore can be regarded as a meaningful first step in a long journey towards complete denuclearisation of North Korea. At the Singapore summit, President Donald Trump and Chairman Kim Jong Un agreed that North Korea would denuclearise completely and that the United States would in return provide North Korea with security guarantees. However, due to political complexity of the North Korean nuclear issue and technical difficulties of nuclear dismantlement, the process towards complete denuclearisation of North Korea is expected to be protracted and difficult. The prospects for future US–North Korea nuclear negotiations will largely depend on how both countries can work out together the concrete steps, phases and timelines for the implementation of denuclearisation.

This study discusses the rise of populism in the United States and its political ramification in the Northeast Asian region, surrounding the recent North Korean nuclear crisis. Rather than simply blaming the irrational behaviours of political leaders, this study argues that their different political preferences originating from their background as well as the demographic nature of their core constituency are the fundamental sources of instability in the region. Unlike the conventional understanding, this study claims that the key problem that has been driving countries in the region towards the nuclear debacle—as well as the sudden volte-face—is US political leader’s very rationality, unbounded by ideological or partisan traditions, rather than his irrational, or oft-regarded as deranged, personality.

This article examines the impact of terms of trade volatility on economic growth and the sources of terms of trade volatility for selected ASEAN countries. By adopting a panel cointegraion method, this study finds that fluctuations of oil price and non-fuel raw material price index have caused terms of trade volatility, which limits economic growth.

This article proposes that level of attention can be a good proxy for measuring geopolitical risks on the Korean peninsula. People’s perception of the possibility of war occurrence may be constructed from information in Google news. Using a newly developed index, this study finds that geopolitical risks and Asian stock market volatilities are related. The findings suggest that geopolitical risks on the Korean peninsula originating from North Korea have affected not only South Korea but also other Asian financial markets. The magnitude of impact is determined by the objective fact of geopolitical events and by a country’s different levels of attention to the events.

The Communist Party of China has embarked on a massive restructuring of the Party and state institutions. The Party has strengthened its grip over the state, taking over six State Council institutions that had previously dealt with the work of civil servants, the media, ethnic affairs, religious affairs, overseas Chinese affairs, and computer network and information security. At the state level, seven ministries were created while six ministries were abolished.

The recent initiative to integrate National Tax Service and Local Tax Service at the provincial level and below is a major step towards reforming the tax administration. The State Administration of Taxation will be the main supervisor of the integrated taxation agencies. Social insurance contributions by employees and employers will be collected by tax authority nationwide and not by social security bureaus.

After decades of large-scale rural-to-urban migration, a massive wave of return migration has emerged in China, signalling China’s entry to a new stage of economic and social development. Behind the new trend are the economic take-off of China’s hinterland and the ageing of the first-generation migrant workers. While potentially a benign transformative force for rural China, return migration also risks becoming a way to “dump” ageing, unproductive or laid-off migrant workers in the vast countryside.

Post-materialism is a value orientation that gives priority to freedom of expression and participation in public affairs over fulfilment of material needs such as economic and physical security. Youth in Hong Kong, Taiwan and mainland China have significantly different levels of post-materialist values, with Hong Kongers scoring the highest and Mainlanders the lowest. These differences have led to their different political orientations.

Restructuring and downsizing of China’s military, its counter-corruption drive and improved supervision, its focus on its professional role and its limited goals may help optimise the use of the defence budget approved recently by the National People’s Congress (NPC). Similarly, the NPC’s decision to establish a Ministry of Veteran Affairs to resolve grievances of military veterans may enhance social stability and boost morale in the People’s Liberation Army as well as help Xi Jinping to consolidate power.

Since 2001, when the United States has accelerated the strengthening of its nuclear primacy with a clearer strategy of assured destruction against any rivals, China has encountered greater pressure to further modernise its nuclear forces. In highlighting the enhanced credibility of its retaliation-based nuclear deterrence under the no-first-use doctrine, China is enhancing command and control of nuclear forces, upgrading its nuclear triad, and constructing its early warning and rapid response capabilities. However, with a further destabilising global nuclear order, more normative challenges have been plaguing China’s nuclear modernisation.