The Singapore Economic Review

Much time series data are recorded on economic and financial variables. Statistical modeling of such data is now very well developed, and has applications in forecasting. We review a variety of statistical models from the viewpoint of "memory", or strength of dependence across time, which is a helpful discriminator between different phenomena of interest. Both linear and nonlinear models are discussed.

This paper reviews the existing literature on impacts of pronatalist benefits on fertility in various countries, and estimates the impact of the Qualified Child Relief (QCR) on the total fertility rate (TFR) of Singapore. The studies surveyed in this paper generally find that pronatalist incentives contribute to raising the fertility rate, but only to a limited extent. In Singapore, a 1% increase in the QCR is estimated to increase the TFR by 0.1–0.2%. Singapore's fertility rate is also found to be positively correlated with men's earnings and the infant mortality rate, while negatively correlated with women's earnings and the unemployment rate. Evidence that the New Population Policy of 1987 has been effective in raising the fertility rate is also found.

We examine a Markov-Switching model of Singaporean GDP using a combination of formal moment-based tests and informal graphical tests. The tests confirm that the Markov-Switching model fits the data better than a linear, autoregressive alternative. The methods are extended to allow us to identify precisely which features of the data are better captured by the nonlinear model. The methods described here allow model selection to be related to the intended use of the model.

In this paper, we develop a model of endogenous R&D in vertical product innovation by an original manufacturer facing Bertrand competition from parallel importer(s). We show that if parallel imports are prohibited among the distributors' countries and there is at least one country other than the manufacturer's homeland in which there is only one distributor, then allowing reimports reduces the manufacturer's incentive to innovate. Otherwise, permitting reimports has no effect on the manufacturer's incentive to invest in R&D. Moreover under the assumption of Bertrand competition, either delegating more than one distributor in each country outside the manufacturer's homeland or allowing parallel imports among the distributors' countries enables the manufacturer to maximize his total profit regardless of whether innovation is successful.

This paper evaluates the economic merits of a conscript or an all-volunteer military force for Singapore, focusing on military conscription as a subset of military expenditure. While many papers investigate the relationships between economic growth and conscription or defence spending, no concrete study has linked them to provide a new argument for or against conscription. This paper relates these three research areas to examine the economic costs and benefits of a conscript and an all-volunteer force for Singapore, taking into account the effects of military spending on the growth of the economy.

Privatization of public utilities in the United Kingdom has been the key vehicle for attaining further improvement in living standards since the mid-1980s. The United Kingdom was the first of the developed nations to privatize public utilities in 1984 when it sold British Telecom (BT). In subsequent years, almost all developed and developing nations followed suit. Simultaneously, the UK's privatization initiatives established independent regulatory agencies to oversee the performance of the newly privatized natural monopolies to protect all the parties (consumers, operators and government) from any adverse consequences of privatization. Most importantly, the regulators oversee and manage the affects of privatization on price increases. This paper investigates the price control regulation of privatized utilities in the UK with a view to gaining further lessons from these experiences for the developing Asian nations where privatization of utilities is currently being seriously considered for adoption. The lessons are investigated from the economic viewpoints.

In this short article we examine the real convergence hypothesis in Germany with respect to the US by means of fractional integration. Using a parametric procedure due to Robinson (1994), the results show that real convergence is only achieved in this country if we take into account the presence of a structural break at World War II. The same evidence is found in other countries (like Japan, the UK and Canada) when this break is considered.

This paper argues that the role of the state becomes more important in some significant respects as the pace of globalization accelerates, contrary to the popular perception that it should be diminished. This is mainly because, as mobile factors obtain more freedom to choose locations across national borders, the role of the state as the ultimate provider of "complementary assets" in attracting mobile factors to a national economy becomes more important. The paper also argues that the very success of Singapore's complementing strategy in the era of globalization has necessitated the state to move to a two-pronged strategy, in which it needs to attempt seriously to acquire higher-end capabilities that are securely based on its territory, while trying to exploit ever-expanding complementary business areas as it has done previously.

This paper investigates the impact of the 1986 US-Japan Semiconductor Trade Agreement (STA) and antidumping actions by the US on Japanese firms. We conduct an event study employing WLS and OLS estimations on the daily returns of eight large electronics firms over roughly a two year period. We find that the STA had a positive effect on the daily returns while the antidumping rulings were found to be insignificant. These results are consistent with some authors' views that the STA policy may have facilitated collusive behavior to the benefit of not only US, but Japanese firms as well. These results shed some light on the ambiguous results found in the Voluntary Import Expansion (VIE) literature.