The Singapore Economic Review

We explain the proliferation of panel data studies in terms of (i) data availability; (ii) the heightened capacity for modeling the complexity of human behavior than a single cross-section or time series data can possibly allow; and (iii) challenging methodology. Advantages and issues of panel data modeling are also discussed.

This paper investigates subject matching in the National University of Singapore (NUS). The matching process is conducted in a primary market and a secondary market. In the primary market, students and departments are matched by a centralized matching procedure, based on their submitted preferences. Students who are not satisfied with their allocations in the primary market can choose to join the secondary market. By comparing matching results in these two markets, we show how a centralized matching procedure and a decentralized matching procedure can work together to produce a desirable outcome, especially in a many-to-many matching market.

In this paper we show that US prices can be specified in terms of a time series model that contains roots simultaneously at zero and the cyclical frequencies. Using a general procedure for testing this type of hypothesis, the results show that the secular component in the US prices is nonstationary, with an order of integration ranging between 0.7 and 1.4. However, the cyclical part seems to be stationary, with the order of integration fluctuating around 0. This implies that shocks affecting the long run component will be highly persistent, while those affecting the cyclical part will disappear quickly.

In the folklore of emerging markets, there is a popular belief that bubbles are inevitable. In this paper, our objective is to estimate a state-space model for rational bubbles in selected Asian economies with the aid of the Kalman Filter. For each economy, we derive a possible picture of the bubble formation process that is implied by the state-space formulation. The estimation is based on the rational valuation formula for stock prices. Our results provide a possible way of defining the presence of rational bubbles in the stock markets of Taiwan, Singapore, Korea, and Malaysia.

This article examines the determinants of aggregate import demand in Brunei Darussalam within a cointegration and error correction framework using the bounds test for cointegration. In addition to the real effective exchange rate and real GDP, in alternative specifications we examine the effect of population growth and world petroleum prices on import demand in Brunei Darussalam. We find that in both the long-run and short-run aggregate imports are inelastic with respect to income and world petroleum prices, but are price-elastic and elastic with respect to population.

The relationship between budget deficits and macroeconomic variables (such as growth, interest rates, trade deficit, exchange rate, among others) represents one of the most widely debated topics among economists and policy makers in both developed and developing countries. However, the purpose of this paper is to review the extensive literature to such a relationship, concentrating on theoretical debates and empirical studies, in order to derive substantive conclusions, which can be beneficial in the macroeconomics area; policy analysis; or in terms of constructing or developing a macroeconomic model for analyzing the impact of budget deficits on macroeconomic variables. The majority of these studies regress a macroeconomic variable on the deficit variable. These studies are cross-country and utilize time series data. In general the key outcomes from the studies presented in this paper indicated that both the method of financing and the components of government expenditures could have different effects. Therefore, it is crucial for the government to distinguish between consumption and investment expenditures especially when the government is in the process of evaluating the impact of fiscal policy on private investment and output growth or in the process of cutting expenditures to reduce the fiscal imbalances in the country. Even though the overall results from the empirical literature with respect to the impact of public investment on private investment and growth are ambiguous, the bulk of the empirical studies find a significantly negative effect of public consumption expenditure on growth, while the effects of public investment expenditure (such as on education, healthcare) are found to be positive although less robust. The key findings from these studies is important in particular for developing countries to be aware of the importance of government investment expenditures in the area of education, healthcare, infrastructure to long-term economic growth and the benefits from which are an important contributor to welfare and well-being. The key outcome from all of the studies presented in this paper while investigating the relationship between the budget deficit and current account deficit showed strong evidence in both developed and developing countries towards supporting the Keynesian proposition (conventional view) which suggests that an increase in the budget deficit would induce domestic absorption and, hence import expansion, causing a current account deficit. The key findings from the empirical studies investigating the relationship between the budget deficit and interest rates indicated strong evidence towards supporting the Keynesian model of a significant and positive relationship between budget deficits and interest rates. The major outcomes from the empirical studies examining the relationship between budget deficits and inflation showed strong evidence that the budget deficit financed through monetization and a rising money supply could lead to inflation.

This study aims to incorporate the role of domestic financial system in transferring the technological diffusion embodied in FDI inflows on the Malaysian economy from 1970–2001. Applying bound test, or unrestricted error correction model (UECM) proposed by Pesaran et al. (2001), the presence of FDI inflows creates a positive technological diffusion in both short- and long-run if the evolution of domestic financial system has achieved a certain minimum level. This implies that the improvement of technology level in Malaysia in the long run is due to the spillover efficiency effects from FDI. Hence, the study suggests that FDI tends to be more likely to enhance economic growth more efficiently when a recipient country has a well-developed and well-functioning financial sector.

This paper examines the population trends in Singapore over the next 50 years. The component method is employed in the projection calculations. The aging of Singapore's resident population is well-known. The projections show that the Singaporean population will reach a maximum of about 3.63 million in the year 2025 before steadily declining to reach 3.32 million by the year 2050. The population projections were also done in terms of gender and ethnic groups. Dependency ratios, weighted and unweighted were also calculated assuming different retirement ages. Remarks on some policy implications of these projections are provided.