The Global Economy in Transition

This book is a collection of essays written by Ambassador, Professor Jørgen Ørstrøm Møller from the middle of 2009 to end of 2012, commenting on global economic and political events, which reflect Moeller's judgment and evaluation on these issues.

Readers get an overview to the collection of essays and the worldview they represent in an introductory chapter weaving together strands of economics, politics, and societal issues. Møller goes a step further by sketching up a picture of how a future economic model and political system may look — forged by debt, scarcities, economic integration, and the rise of Asia.

Part I deals with global systems and possible long trends shaping the future over the coming decades, as the current political system and economic model, having run their course, come to an end.

Part II discusses how the era of scarcities will change economic behaviour in terms of economic models.

Part III looks into the global debt problem, which confines the world to low growth over one or two decades as the world tries to get rid of the debt burden.

Part IV forms an analysis of what has happened in the Euro-zone and how the global debt crisis has compelled the Europeans to take the next steps in integration and address the shortcomings and flaws in the original treaty from 1992.

Part V turns to Asia and its future in the global economy. It concentrates on Asian integration and how the Asian countries will fare in the future under much changed circumstances compared to how things looked when the Asian adventure started some 30–40 years ago.

At the end, readers will find a short post-scriptum with some of Moeller's afterthoughts on the important issues discussed throughout the book.

Sample Chapter(s)
Foreword (46 KB) by Jagdish Bhagwati (Columbia University)
Introduction to Part I (365 KB)

• The Global System:
  • Introduction to Part I
  • China's Effort to Redefine Corporate Governance
  • Welcome to the Age of Angst
  • Wikileaks and Consequences for Modern Diplomacy
  • The Deadly Cocktail
  • Private Gain, Public Loss
  • Making Profit at the Cost of Society's Interest
  • Conventional Economic Theory — A Critique Highlighting Flaws in American Style Capitalism
• Scarcities — New Economic Thinking:
  • Introduction to Part II
  • Key Events Driving the Future of Chinese Economy
  • Saving Resources with a Tax on Their Total Use
  • Want a Way Out of the Recession? Create Jobs by Saving Resources
  • The Era of Scarcities
  • Asia Redraws the Map of Progress
  • Tax on Commodity Profits Could Postpone Scarcity
• Debt:
  • Introduction to Part III
  • The Way Out of the Debt Trap
  • Global Debt Picture Not Very Pretty
  • Inflation or Deflation? Both!
  • US More Worrying Than Europe
  • Why Debt Does Not Go Away
  • Global Economy Faces Wealth Redistribution
  • Has the Fed Got It Wrong Again?
  • The Markets Prey on Debt-Laden Nations
  • Nationalism or Capitalism? Sovereign Wealth Funds of Non-OECD Countries
  • Agonising Wait for US Economy to Rebalance
  • Get Out While You Can
  • US Recession: Spend Now, Save Later
• The Euro-Zone:
  • Introduction to Part IV
  • Lessons Asia Can Learn From Europe
  • Europe, Not Euro, May Break Apart
  • Now Comes the Hard Part for the Euro-Zone
  • Why the Euro Will Survive
  • In Europe, North Battles South
  • Europe After the Debt Crisis
  • Painful Euro Crisis and Lessons for the World
  • The Euro-Zone Fights for Survival
• Asia in the Global Economy:
  • Introduction to Part V
  • Economic Integration — The Future for Asia
  • From Asian Financial Crisis to the Western Debt Crisis
  • The Asian Supply Chain Becomes More Compact
  • What Makes S'pore Different
  • Lessons for Asia From the Global Financial Crisis
  • How Will Southeast Asia Position Itself in Asia's Future in an Age of Scarcities?
  • How Can ASEAN Stay Relevant?
  • Asia Faces US Default on Its Sovereign Debt
  • US and China May Move to Cap Military Spending
  • China to the Rescue: Growing Out of the Financial Crisis
  • How the US and Asia Can Help Each Other