Economic Growth of Singapore in the Twentieth Century

The following sections are included:

• Preface

• Acknowledgments

• Contents

• List of Tables

• List of Figures

• List of Maps

• List of Abbreviations

The following sections are included:

• Objective of Study

• Literature Review
  • Literature Review on Economic History of Singapore Prior to Independence
  • Literature Review on the Construction of Historical Statistics
  • Literature Review on GDP Concepts and Approaches

• Statistical Sources and Possible Approach for the Construction of GDP of Singapore

• Layout of the Book

The following sections are included:

• Introduction
  • Overview on the Methodology Employed for Estimation of Each Component of GDP

• Private Final Consumption Expenditure by Resident Households, 1900–39 and 1950–60
  • Definition
  • Sources and Methods of Estimation at Current Prices
    • Direct Components
      • Opium Consumption
      • Education and Medical Fees
      • Utility (Gas, Water Supply and Electricity)
    • Indirect Components
      • Estimate of Population and Consumption Standards (STEP 1)
      • Per-capita Consumption Expenditure by Standard for Base Year (STEP 2)
      • Construction of Consumer Price Indices 1900–39 and 1950–60 (1914 = 100) (STEP 3)
      • Estimating the Per-capita Final Consumption Expenditure of Major Objects of Consumption and Standards in 1914 Prices for Selected Years (STEP 4)
      • The Real Wage Indices (STEP 5)
      • Deriving Private Final Consumption Expenditure in Constant and Current Prices, 1900–39 and 1948–60 (STEPS 6–11)
    • Private Consumption Expenditure by Resident Households

• Government Final Consumption Expenditure
  • Definition
  • Source Materials and Methodology for Estimates
    • Colony of Singapore, 1900–39 and 1950–60
    • The Municipality of Singapore, 1900–39, and the City Council of Singapore, 1950–60
    • Rural Boards
    • Education Board
    • Hospital Board
    • Total Government Output of Producers' of Government Services, 1900–39 and 1950–60
  • Government Final Consumption Expenditure in Current Prices
  • Government Final Consumption Expenditure in 1914 Prices

• Gross Capital Formation
  • Definition
  • Investment in Construction
    • Definition
    • Investment in Construction in Current Prices
    • Investment in Construction in 1914 Prices
  • Investment in Transport, Machinery, and Equipment
    • Definition
    • Investment in M&E in Current Prices
    • Investment in M&E in 1914 Prices
  • Cultivated Assets
    • Definition
    • Investment in Cultivated Assets in Current Prices
    • Investment in Cultivated Assets in 1914 Prices
  • Change in Stock
    • Definition
    • Methodology for Estimates
    • Change in Stocks in 1914 Prices

• Net Exports of Goods and Services
  • Definition
  • Merchandize Trade in Current Prices
    • 1900–27 Series
    • 1928–39 and 1950–60 Series
  • Merchandize Trade and Its Adjustment
  • Services Trade, 1900–39 and 1950–60
    • Observation of Post-1960's Official Data
    • Exports of Bunker Coal and Petroleum to Foreign Ships
    • Sale of Water to Foreign Ships
    • Revenue Collection Using on Services Provided by the Singapore Harbour Board
    • Revenue Collected by the Colony of Singapore
    • Private Final Consumption Expenditure by Nonresidents in the Domestic Market
  • External Trade of Goods and Services in 1914 Prices
    • Construction of Import and Export Unit Value Indices, 1900–39 and 1950–60 (1914 = 100)
      • 1900–27 Series
      • 1928–39 and 1950–60 Series
    • Deflators for Port Services

The following sections are included:

• Introduction

• Results of GDP Estimates

• Assessment of GDP Estimates
  • Consistency Check
    • Unit Root Test
  • Upturns and Downturns of Each Component of GDP, 1900–39 and 1950–60
    • Private Final Consumption Expenditure in Current and 1914 Prices
    • Government Final Consumption Expenditure in Current and 1914 Prices
    • Gross Capital Formation in Current and 1914 Prices
    • Net Exports of Goods and Services in Current and 1914 Prices
      • Exports of Goods and Services
      • Imports of Goods and Services
  • International Comparison
    • Growth Rate of GDP and Its Components
    • Share of Each Component of GDP to GDP

• Overall Pattern of Singapore's GDP during the Twentieth Century
  • Transforming the Base Year from 1914 Prices to 1990 Prices for the Periods 1900–39 and 1950–60
  • Overall Patterns of Growth for the Twentieth Century
    • Growth Rate of GDP and Its Component in the Twentieth Century
    • Share of Each Component of GDP

The following sections are included:

• Introduction

• Literature Review
  • Declining Degree of Real GDP Volatility
  • The Source of Real GDP Volatilities
  • The Effect of Economic Instability to Economic Growth
    • Export Instability
    • Annual Growth Rate of Exports as a Proportion of GDP
    • Terms-of-Trade Volatility
    • Share of Investment to GDP
    • Annual Growth Rate of Government Final Consumption Expenditure as a Proportion of GDP
    • Population Growth
    • Gross Domestic Product Per Capita with Time Lag
  • Studies on Singapore Relating to This Issue

• The Extent of Economic Instability in Singapore
  • Definition and Measurement of Output Volatilities
  • Economic Instability of GDP and Its Components

• Econometric Tests
  • Explanation of Real GDP Volatilities
    • Explanatory Variables
    • Regression Results
  • The Effect of Economic Instability on Economic Growth
    • Explanatory Variables
    • Regression Results

• International Comparison

• Concluding Remarks

The following sections are included:

• Introduction

• Literature Review
  • Features of Colonial Government's Finance Behavior
    • Small Size of the Government
    • Creation of a Balanced Budget Structure
    • Weakness of the Colonial Government Macroeconomic Management
  • Previous Econometric Test on Government Expenditure and Economic Growth

• Historical Transitions of the Government's Finance Behavior of Singapore in the Twentieth Century
  • Government Revenue
    • Growth of Government Revenue
    • Changes in Revenue Structure
    • British Colonial Period (1900–39 and 1950–59)
    • Self-Government Period (1959–2000)
  • Government Expenditure
    • Growth of Government Expenditure
    • Changes in the Composition of Government Expenditure
  • Budget Surplus/Deficit and Financial Assets
  • Summary

• Econometric Test
  • Testing Methodology
  • Data

• Empirical Results
  • Unit Root Test
  • Cointegration Tests
  • Granger Causality Tests

• Concluding Remarks

The following sections are included:

• Significance of the Construction of Historical GDP Estimates of Singapore

• Major Findings
  • Overall Patterns of Singapore's GDP for the Twentieth Century
  • Economic Instability and Economic Growth in Singapore in the Twentieth Century
  • Government Fiscal Behavior and Economic Growth in Singapore in the Twentieth Century

• Limitations of this Study and Future Research Areas

The following sections are included:

• Appendix 1 Singapore: Cost-of-Living Indices by Major Object of Consumption and Consumption Standard, 1899–1914

• Appendix 2 Singapore: Cost-of-Living Indices by Major Object of Consumption and Consumption Standard, 1914–39

• Appendix 3 Singapore: Cost-of-Living Indices by Major Object of Consumption and Consumption Standard, 1939 and 1947–60

• Bibliography