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A non-parametric multidimensional regression method is proposed for the prediction of seismic ground motion parameters. The main features which distinguish the method from standard regression procedures are: (1) The relationship between the input and output variables is not selected a priori by a prediction law, (2) an arbitrary number of input variables can be taken into account, provided that an appropriate data base exists, and (3) the computational procedure is very simple. The results can be easily updated when new information becomes available. The method has been applied for the derivation of attenuation relations by using a combination of databases compiled by other researchers. In the majority of the cases discussed in this paper, the method was used for the prediction of horizontal peak ground acceleration as a function of magnitude and distance. In some cases, ground conditions were also taken into account. Some results on the attenuation relations of peak ground velocity and displacement, as well as Arias intensity, are also presented.

A dataset of 690 strong motion component records of horizontal accelerations are analysed to derive predictive relationships for Arias Intensity, duration and number of pulses as functions of acceleration level as well as their dependence on the magnitude and distance of the source. The relationships show that the records should follow the patterns set by such relationships and cannot entirely be random. The use of some of the parameters to generate artificial time histories of acceleration is shown merely as an example.

The duration of strong ground shaking during earthquakes can play an important rôle in the response of foundation materials and structures, particularly when strength or stiffness degradation is encountered. A thorough seismic hazard assessment should therefore include an estimation of the expected duration of strong motion, which first requires criteria to define the part of an accelerogram considered to represent the duration of strong ground motion. Some 30 different definitions of strong motion duration are reviewed and classified into generic groups. Problems that arise with the use of these definitions for duration are highlighted. A new definition of duration is presented using a previously unexplored option which identifies the part of the record where the main energy is contained and constrains this strong shaking phase by absolute criteria. This new definition is shown to give consistently meaningful durations for strong earthquake accelerograms from an engineering viewpoint. The correlations between the new definition of duration and magnitude, soil conditions and distance are explored as a first step towards the development of predictive equations.

In structural engineering earthquakes are often represented as random phenomena. Frequently, filtered white noise stochastic processes are adopted to properly model their frequency content. In order to model the time variation of earthquake intensity, these processes are assumed nonstationary, and time modulation functions (MFs) are used. For these, different shapes and formulas have been proposed in literature till now, but only few works have dealt with their comparison in terms of structural response. This paper focuses on this topic: at this aim, a simple linear single degree of freedom (SDoF) system, which represents a structure vibrating in its fundamental mode, is considered subject to a time modulated filtered stochastic process. Different shapes of the MF are considered and the influence on two structural response indices, i.e. the maximum displacement standard deviation and the failure probability, is investigated. A sensitivity analysis is finally performed by varying peak ground acceleration (PGA), Arias intensity and structural period.

Chile presents a high seismicity and very particular characteristics due to its subductive environment and high convergence rate of the interacting plates. In this paper, ground motion models (GMM) for Arias Intensity and strong ground motion duration are developed based on recently compiled Chilean earthquakes records. The Chilean derived GMM are later compared with global and subduction models. For the duration case, two definitions are considered: significant duration and bracketed duration. Care is taken to consider newly define rupture areas for the major earthquake in the catalog, which allows to redefine the distances to be used in the analysis. The strong motion records are processed using robust techniques and standardized procedures. The model parameters are selected using a Bayesian updating method. This allows to estimate the parameters as well as their corresponding uncertainties recognizing the variability of the coefficients and of the selected model. The derived ground motion predictive model associated is validated through a residual analysis and probability distributions, obtained from the adjustment method. Additionally, for the bracketed duration analysis, a classification method based on Support Vector Machine (SVM) is used, with the aim to incorporate the records with duration of zero seconds. The comparison of the resultant model with the existing ones allows to confirm the differences that the tectonic Chilean environment produces, characterized mainly by a high relative convergence rate between plates and interplate thrust earthquakes with high magnitudes.