Narrow Results

A brief introduction to the simulation of stochastic differential equations is presented. Algorithms to simulate rare fluctuations, a topic of interest in the light of recent theoretical work on optimal paths are studied. Problems connected to the treatment of the boundaries and correlated noise will also be discussed.

Glycolysis is the most important cellular process yielding ATP, the universal energy carrier molecule in all living organisms. The characteristic oscillations of the intermediates of glycolysis have been the subject of extensive experimental and theoretical research over the last four decades. A conspicuous property of the glycolytic oscillations is their critical control by the substrate injection rate. In this brief review, we trace its experimental background and explore the essential underlying theoretical models to elucidate a number of nonlinear dynamical phenomena observed in the weak noise limit of the substrate injection rate. Simultaneous oscillations of glycolytic intermediates and insulin have also been discussed within the framework of a phenomenological model in the context of basic experimental issues.

The energy-optimal migration of a chaotic oscillator from one attractor to another coexisting attractor is investigated via an analogy between the Hamiltonian theory of fluctuations and Hamiltonian formulation of the control problem. We demonstrate both on physical grounds and rigorously that the Wentzel–Freidlin Hamiltonian arising in the analysis of fluctuations is equivalent to Pontryagin's Hamiltonian in the control problem with an additive linear unrestricted control. The deterministic optimal control function is identified with the optimal fluctuational force. Numerical and analogue experiments undertaken to verify these ideas demonstrate that, in the limit of small noise intensity, fluctuational escape from the chaotic attractor occurs via a unique (optimal) path corresponding to a unique (optimal) fluctuational force. Initial conditions on the chaotic attractor are identified. The solution of the boundary value control problem for the Pontryagin Hamiltonian is found numerically. It is shown that this solution is approximated very accurately by the optimal fluctuational force found using statistical analysis of the escape trajectories. A second series of numerical experiments on the deterministic system (i.e. in the absence of noise) show that a control function of precisely the same shape and magnitude is indeed able to instigate escape. It is demonstrated that this control function minimizes the cost functional and the corresponding energy is found to be smaller than that obtained with some earlier adaptive control algorithms.

Recent progress towards an understanding of fluctuational escape from chaotic attractors (CAs) is reviewed and discussed in the contexts of both continuous systems and maps. It is shown that, like the simpler case of escape from a regular attractor, a unique most probable escape path (MPEP) is followed from a CA to the boundary of its basin of attraction. This remains true even where the boundary structure is fractal. The importance of the boundary conditions on the attractor is emphasized. It seems that a generic feature of the escape path is that it passes via certain unstable periodic orbits. The problems still remaining to be solved are identified and considered.

Shocks, jumps, booms and busts are typical large fluctuation markers which appear in crisis. Models and leading indicators vary according to crisis type in spite of the fact that there are a lot of different models and leading indicators in literature to determine structure of crisis. In this paper, we investigate structure of dynamic correlation of stock return, interest rate, exchange rate and trade balance differences in crisis periods in Turkey over the period between October 1990 and March 2015 by applying wavelet coherency methodologies to determine nature of crises. The time period includes the Turkeys currency and banking crises; US sub-prime mortgage crisis and the European sovereign debt crisis occurred in 1994, 2001, 2008 and 2009, respectively. Empirical results showed that stock return, interest rate, exchange rate and trade balance differences are significantly linked during the financial crises in Turkey. The cross wavelet power, the wavelet coherency, the multiple wavelet coherency and the quadruple wavelet coherency methodologies have been used to examine structure of dynamic correlation. Moreover, in consequence of quadruple and multiple wavelet coherence, strongly correlated large scales indicate linear behavior and, hence VARMA (vector autoregressive moving average) gives better fitting and forecasting performance. In addition, increasing the dimensions of the model for strongly correlated scales leads to more accurate results compared to scalar counterparts.