Shadows Across the Golden Land

The following sections are included:

• Endorsements
• Contents
• List of Figures and Diagrams

After the monsoon and into the drier weeks from September to December 2017, more than half a million Rohingya crossed the border into Bangladesh, having fled from violent conflict impacting villages in Myanmar’s Rakhine State. Estimates are that there are approximately 900,000 Rohingya refugees inside Bangladesh, around Cox’s Bazar as of 30 September 2019, resulting in the largest refugee camp in the world…

The following sections are included:

• A Pariah State and Its New President
• The Start of Something
• International Engagement, American Hugs
• Changing Relations with China
• From International Applause to Investments
• Bumps on the Road
• An Early End and Initial Assessments

The following sections are included:

• A Hollywood Ending and After
• Living with the Generals
• From Opposing to Governing
• Managing the New Democracy

The following sections are included:

• The Road to Thilawa
• “Something More for My Country”
• Better Late than Never
• From Cronies to Tycoons
• Problems Won’t Wait
• New Emphasis and Impetus

In the bustling city streets of downtown Yangon there is a push and pull of worlds and of time. There is confusion and contestation over names. To call this bustling city “Rangoon” and the country “Burma” is to evoke British names, when the country was a colony and first emerged as an independent and democratic country. These names were also used politically to signal opposition to the military regimes that had seized power in 1962 and, through various combinations, ruled the country for decades. The generals not only ruled the capital and country but renamed them as, respectively, “Yangon” and “Myanmar” — to assert pre-colonial identity and their own authority to change things as they see fit. For many years, the choice of terms was the quickest way to distinguish where people stood on the sharp political divide between the military junta and the opposition. Today, almost everyone, except the very old and some tourists, use “Yangon”. But the city continues to show layers of time and the flux of authority…

By mid-2018, the Rakhine State crisis had become the single most important issue for the international community in looking at Myanmar. Over the last decade, successive waves of Rohingya fled across the porous border into Bangladesh, with numbers sharply growing after 2016 to reach a peak of more than 900,000 Rohingya by 2017, settled in a series of camps in the region of Cox’s Bazar (see Figure 6.2). Few have been officially accepted as refugees and allowed to settle in the West or other countries that can offer final and safe settlements. Instead, leaders of the world came to Cox’s Bazar. In 2018 alone, visitors included the Secretary-General of the United Nations (UN), Antonio Guterres; the then World Bank President, Jim Yong Kim and ministers and senior representatives from many Western countries, the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), and key Asian neighbours, Japan, China and ASEAN. Beyond governments, the issue even attracted a number of global companies concerned to play a role in tackling migrant vulnerability and human trafficking…

The National League for Democracy (NLD) government clearly did not create this crisis. But it is now expected to handle it. As the number of Rohingya fleeing Myanmar has increased, so has media attention and concern among the international community. Sharp focus has also arisen from the fact-finding missions from the United Nations and hearings before the International Court of Justice (ICJ), when The Gambia instituted proceedings that accuse Myanmar of genocide. The NLD government must now deal not only with a larger and more complex problem but will need to do so in the glare of far greater international attention and expectation. Steps have been ventured, even if many in the international community do not notice or else remain sceptical. The problem is, however, far from resolved. At the time of writing, there has been no significant repatriation of the displaced people back to Rakhine State. The West has put a limited set of sanctions in place to press for more action by Myanmar, and there are worries that more will come. Yet, even if Western sanctions were widened, they do not in themselves provide a solution. What should be done about the Rohingya and Rakhine State? What can be achieved in the near to middle term realistically? Who can do this, and how?…

The Rakhine State crisis should not be an obstacle to international engagement and investment. The country must develop and the needs of over 53 million Myanmar people cannot be held hostage to a crisis concerning one million Rohingya…

This book is written from my extended engagements with Myanmar in the period following the elections of 2010 when the generals embarked on the “Road Map to Democracy”, and continuing after the elections of 2015 that witnessed the historic win by Aung San Suu Kyi and the National League of Democracy. These have been intense years, with opportunities to witness up close many important changes in Myanmar’s political and social landscape as well as to play some small part in connecting Myanmar to the region and the wider world. Although my work focused on current and emerging trends, over the course of my visits to the country, I was glad to learn more about the historical experiences of the country that have shaped the perspectives of the Myanmar people on many issues, and hope to share some of these insights to help others have a deeper understanding of an important and complex country at a critical juncture of its development and engagement with the world. It is my hope that this book can play a role in helping outsiders to better understand Myanmar so they might adopt a broader lens and develop a deeper appreciation of its challenges — and consider whether they will continue engaging the country as it continues opening to the wider world…

The following sections are included:

• Appendix A: Annotated Bibliography
• Appendix B: The Thilawa Special Economic Zone
• Appendix C: Changes between Myanmar Companies Act 1914 and Myanmar Companies Law 2017
• Appendix D: List of Major Economic Reforms Undertaken by the NLD
• Appendix E: Myanmar’s Constitutions
• Appendix F: History of ASEAN–Myanmar Relations
• Appendix G: Myanmar Connectivity Map
• Appendix H: Recent Major Business Deals in Myanmar (Provided by PwC Myanmar)
• Appendix I: Timeline of Singapore–Myanmar Economic Relations
• Appendix J: A Summary of the Gambia v Myanmar Case in the International Court of Justice

The following section is included:

• Index