China Quarterly of International Strategic Studies

The South Asia subcontinent is witnessing new security and political dynamics after the United States withdrew its troops in mid-2021. Even as the Taliban-led government is stepping up engagement with the outside world to earn wider diplomatic recognition and exhibit its governing credentials, Beijing and New Delhi are adjusting their regional policies in a bid to acquire more influence in a changing geopolitical landscape. Assuming nation states to be rational actors, this paper uses the stag hunt game to analyze the potential maximum payoffs for Beijing, Kabul, and New Delhi, respectively, if they could make the right strategic calculations about their short-term interests and long-term goals. Even though the subcontinent is not immune to the effect of great power rivalry that is unfolding on the world stage, regional stakeholders could still choose to cooperate on issues of common concern while limiting the fallout of competition and confrontation on other more contentious challenges.

China’s security presence has been growing steadily in proportion to the progress of the Belt and Road Initiative, reflected in a larger military footprint in Africa in the form of logistical and resupply bases. The BRI/military nexus has allowed Beijing to play a larger role in African affairs more recently, raising alarms in the United States and the European Union. Despite growing speculation and skepticism in some quarters, African societies still welcome Beijing’s increasing investment and deeper involvement in regional security matters. After Djibouti, Equatorial Guinea is the most likely nation to host the next Chinese military base. But at the same time, the West’s scrutiny of Beijing’s rising profile and deeper security involvement in Africa will also grow as China continues to chip away at the West’s influence on the continent. A steadier security footing for China would change great power dynamics in the region even as competition between Beijing on the one hand and Washington and Brussels on the other will still be limited to the economic and financial domains.

This paper offers an overview of the size, progress, and impact of the Belt and Road Initiative, based on a relatively comprehensive examination of relevant literature, policy documents, and academic essays to dissect various aspects of mega-project. It delves into the theoretical foundations that underpin the initiative, including theses on economic integration and Beijing’s use of soft power, explores the role of China’s grand strategy in shaping the Belt and Road Initiative, emphasizing the dual objectives of securing sustained domestic growth and expanding Beijing’s global influence. Aimed at advancing both geopolitical and geoeconomic interests, the Belt and Road Initiative is expected to play a larger role in regional infrastructure connectivity and global economic transformation.

The China–U.S.–Iran relationship offers an intriguing strategic triangle in which the United States has always loomed large and disproportionately influenced the relationship between the other two actors. Although Tehran and Beijing had a relatively friendly relationship that endured the volatile Cold War era, neither treated the other as a strategic priority in their foreign relations. The Obama administration’s diplomatic overture and the subsequent multi-nation nuclear deal helped relieve persistent restrictions on Tehran and Beijing and created a relatively permissive environment for both to foster more resilient economic, political, and strategic ties. The U.S. factor has long compelled China to adopt a dual policy toward Iran — restricted cooperation and limited distancing. But more recently, in an evolving global geopolitical and geoeconomic landscape, Beijing has begun to tilt more frequently toward Tehran, telegraphing its growing frustration with Washington’s unilateralism and protectionism on the one hand, and a greater willingness to raise its profile in the Middle East on the other.

China’s emergence as a key player in global politics and the declining role of the United States as a superpower are two greatest developments of the 21st century. This geopolitical transformation has compelled Washington to reconsider its traditional Eurocentric and Middle East-focused approach and shift strategic attention and resources to the Asia-Pacific region. In a bid to keep its superpower status, the United States is bolstering India as a bulwark against China. To balance China’s growing influence, the United States has upgraded ties with India and other major players on China’s periphery. The U.S-India strategic partnership is among the most visible result of these efforts. At the same time, this strategic realignment has serious consequences for regional stability in South Asia. India’s military buildup rattles neighbors, particularly Pakistan, as it increases the risk of confrontation between the two nuclear-armed states. This changing strategic environment leaves Pakistan with no option but to look for new ways to maintain strategic equilibrium. This study provides an overview of the India-U.S. partnership and its impact on South Asian strategic stability. It also highlights various challenges Pakistan will likely face due to regional realignment and discusses possible options for Pakistan to maintain a favorable strategic equilibrium.

There has been a notable link/correlation between the rise of China and U.S.–Iran standoff in recent years. The year 2012 marks a watershed moment in U.S. strategic calculation on its relations with China and Iran. Before that year, China was not a peer competitor capable of challenging U.S. preeminence on the world stage and Iran was merely a regional adversary. After 2012, U.S. intelligence reports have consistently assess that China is the only great power with the intent and ability to undermine the liberal world order and its growing ties with U.S. adversaries, Iran included, will pose the biggest threat to U.S. and Western interests. The China factor has become an independent variable in U.S.–Iran relation, and as Beijing continues to grow its economic and military power, the United States will resort to more hawkish policy toward China and Iran, further escalating the U.S.–Iran standoff. Tehran will continue to play a crucial role in its asymmetrical relationships with Beijing and Washington as the two superpowers seek their respective leverage in the triangular relationship to outcompete the other party.

This paper delves into the interdependent relationship between China and Pakistan and its implications for regional interests. It centers on China’s expanding economic clout in South Asia, primarily through its collaboration with Pakistan. Using the theoretical framework of “hedging,” the paper examines Pakistan’s strategy for balancing its connections with both China and the United States. It also explores the role of small powers in alliance politics and how China’s growing economic and military sway in Pakistan may affect Pakistan-U.S. relations. Ultimately, the paper contends that the United States can mitigate the perceived risk of a Pakistan-China partnership by considering Pakistan’s unique geopolitical position and its intricate association with India.

As the US–China rivalry intensifies, countries in Southeast Asia find themselves having to oscillate between the two superpowers. Vietnam is one of those countries forced to make difficult strategic choices in a way that would not undermine its international standing vis-à-vis other regional stakeholders and, where possible, advance its national interests. This paper analyzes the factors influencing Vietnam’s policy within the Vietnam–US–China trilateral interaction. To this end, it compares the internal and external forces that impact Hanoi’s policy-making processes and extrapolates Vietnam’s foreign policy choices against the backdrop of US–China competition.

The maritime domain has emerged as an emblematic arena for geopolitical maneuvering, economic synergy, and strategic competition in the 21st century. As the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) has assumed greater resonance, the maritime component of this corridor, often referred to as the “Maritime Silk Road,” holds the potential to reshape and nurtures the economic and geopolitical landscape in the Indian Ocean region. The blue economy encompasses various sectors, including fisheries, shipping, renewable energy, and trade while plays as a catalyst in the economic prosperity and sustainability of coastal nations. This research aims to explore the multifaceted geopolitical implications of the maritime cooperation between Pakistan and China, with a specific focus on its profound impact on the blue economy. This blue web of strategic nexus has potential in the terms of diplomatic, military, and economic ties, while capable of harnessing cultural, technological, and educational exchanges. Gwadar Port, the gateway to the Arabian Sea, has emerged as a pivotal factor in this equation due to its role in fostering regional and international interconnectivity. However, this is also vulnerable to growing security, environmental, and geopolitical rivalries.

This paper specifically explores the impacts of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) infrastructure diplomacy in Nigeria, with a particular focus on two crucial sectors: ports and railways. It analyzes the challenges and conditions that have led to delays and abandonment of previous projects awarded to China in the past decades. Through the lens of complex interdependency theory, this paper discusses the push and pull factors that motivated the execution of BRI projects in Nigeria and how they mutually benefit the actors involved. Furthermore, it utilizes primary and secondary data gathered through Key Informant Interviews and documented sources. On the strength of the findings, this paper concludes that the BRI, unlike past Chinese projects in Nigeria, has significantly enhanced the development of infrastructure by modernizing the Nigerian railway facilities and constructing the first deep seaport in the country.

Political-security relations are not only an essential part of China–Japan relations but also a key factor influencing and limiting the overall improvement and growth of China–Japan relations and their impact on the common security of Northeast Asia. This relationship has shown signs of improvement for a while. However, after President Joe Biden took office in January 2021 and Japan had a new Prime Minister Fumio Kishida in October 2021, the political-security relationship between the two Asian powers has reversed compared to the previous period. The paper aims to point out the factors affecting this relationship and analyzes the current political and security relations between China and Japan from 2021 to the present to forecast prospects for the bilateral relationship.

The paper attempts explore and understand the factors that contribute to Indian and Japanese responses to the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and to scrutinize their respective approaches to the initiative. It highlights the similarities and differences between theirs responses and reveals that historical contexts, geopolitical and economic ambitions, and security concerns constitute key determinants of the two countries’ attitudes toward the BRI. Japanese approach involves balancing mercantile interests, domestic pressure, and geopolitical concerns aligned with the United States based on a “common threat.” India’s policy is mostly motivated by national security and geopolitical concerns, as evidenced by its complete noncooperation with the initiative, and its active participation in counter-China initiatives led by the United States. The study also found that strained China–India and China–Japan relations as a result of regional power struggles aided U.S. efforts to consolidate the China-focused counterbalancing process. The analysis concludes by presenting some proposals China might utilize to mitigate these issues for broader BRI participation.

This paper analyzes the challenges, prospects, and security policies of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Political-Security Community within the ASEAN through a review of regional studies, an evaluation of theoretical approaches in the context of international relations, and an examination of case studies related to regional security in Southeast Asia. The challenges faced are complex, including China’s growing influence, unresolved regional disputes, the strict principle of noninterference in the internal affairs of member states, and ASEAN’s inability to safeguard human rights in the region. Through case study analysis, this paper concludes that the principle of multilateralism is being tested by the complex relationships and interactions among the states within ASEAN. Measuring the progress of security cooperation within the ASEAN cooperation framework has proven difficult due to the complexity of geopolitical and geoeconomic interests, as well as territorial boundaries. ASEAN’s inherently weak foundation further complicates this assessment. Moreover, regional developments have limited ASEAN’s capacity to fulfill its fundamental objective of building a stable political environment in Southeast Asia. Ongoing developments in the region have constrained ASEAN’s capacity to effectively fulfill its core mission of creating a stable political environment in the region.

This paper looks into the case of Southeast Asian states’ policy of hedging toward the U.S.-China competition. It examines Indonesian and Vietnamese similar approach to their respective relations with China and the United States in a shifting regional landscape, despite the fact that the two Southeast states have different ideologies and political systems. The authors argue that the fear of abandonment and entrapment drives the Southeast Asian states’ policy preferences to ensure that the United States and China accommodate their interests. Historical baggage, especially the negative historical experiences of both countries with the United States and China, also inhibits the formation of military alliances with the superpowers. This paper compares the two influential Southeast Asian countries in detail and avoids “regional generalizations” about the countries in the region.

This research delves into core–periphery dynamics in Pakistan’s relations with the United States and China, with a focus on the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). It investigates how these dynamics shape interactions and Pakistan’s global stance. The study analyzes the Pakistan-U.S. relationship, where the U.S. core dominance influences Pakistan’s socioeconomic trajectory. Shifting to the Pakistan-China partnership, China’s dual core–semi-periphery roles define its involvement in CPEC, merging developmental investments with strategic interests. This study employs a comparative analysis to dissect the core–periphery dynamics within Pakistan’s interactions with the United States and China, specifically in the case of CPEC. Correspondingly, the core–periphery framework exposes structural imbalances and the interplay of power, economics, and geopolitics. The research highlights the framework’s insights — revealing traditional core–periphery dynamics in Pakistan-U.S. ties and intricate complexity in Pakistan-China relations. China’s multifaceted role as a developmental supporter and strategic actor adds layers to the narrative. In essence, the core–periphery framework unveils the interwoven narratives of power, economic reliance, and strategic motivations that underpin the evolving global order.

In the intricate tapestry of global geopolitics, China’s ascent as a potential preeminent power in a new world order has become a compelling narrative. This paper explores Beijing’s multifaceted rise by delving into the diplomatic, economic, technological, cultural, and environmental dimensions of the nation’s ascent. China’s adept diplomacy, exemplified by its active participation in international organizations, introduces profound implications for global governance and cooperation. Economically, its transformation from an agrarian society to the world’s second-largest economy redefines the dynamics of international trade and development, epitomized by the far-reaching Belt and Road Initiative. China’s technological prowess, particularly in fields like artificial intelligence and 5G technology, reshapes the landscape of innovation, while the influence of its soft power through cultural exports and educational outreach resonates across borders. The ethical and moral dimensions of global governance are at the forefront of this narrative, with questions of universal values and human rights taking center stage. China’s commitment to environmental sustainability and its role in addressing climate change also have profound implications for global environmental protection. Looking ahead, two potential scenarios, a bipolar world order and a multipolar world order, come into focus, each with its own implications for international relations, trade, technology, and environmental cooperation. In this evolving global narrative, international organizations adapt to accommodate shifting power dynamics, emphasizing the need for equitable representation and multilateral collaboration. Ultimately, the paper underscores the interplay of nations in the recalibration of the global order, urging proactive engagement and foresight in navigating the complex terrain of China’s rise and its impact on the future of international relations.

Belt and road initiative (BRI) is a comprehensive megaproject launched in 2013 by China to realize global connectivity, particularly in infrastructure, trade, and investment of the participating countries. This conceptual review paper examines the BRI’s role as a catalyst for poverty alleviation through its focus on human capital development (HCD) and technological innovation. In the context of the BRI projects, people-to-people exchanges, knowledge transfer, and various skill-building initiatives result in sustainable economic growth in the participating countries. The paper also examines the BRI’s role in driving technological development through investing in research and development (R&D) that ultimately leads to technology diffusion to modernize industries and reduce poverty. It also examines the interaction between human capital and technology as a cyclical relationship; these two complement each other in the cycle of productivity and inclusive development of an economy. A three-pillar model is also presented in the study to support the proper utilization and implementation of the BRI projects and maintain sustainability for inclusive development.

Historically, Afghanistan has remained an active and one of the determining factors in shaping regional power structure. The U.S. withdrawal from the country is regarded as a turning point in the ongoing regional realignment process. Once the allies in the United States’ “War on Terror” campaign like Russia, Iran, Qatar, and Central Asian Republics have changed their side and are working very actively with the Taliban regime. These countries even consider the regime as the only option that has the capacity to address their national security threats arising from the country. Considering the situation and India’s strained relations with the Taliban, Pakistan, and China, will Iran emerge as a crucial ally for India in safeguarding its national interests and maintaining its strategic influence in Afghanistan and the wider region? This paper aims to analyze how a Taliban-led Afghanistan could impact India’s relationship with Iran. The research adds a new dimension to the analysis of India and Iran relations and highlights the significance of Iran for India in changing regional and global power structures. The research method was based on the review of research articles, reports both governmental and non-governmental, and surveys published in newspapers. The qualitative analysis clarifies and deepens the understanding of the issue.

The revival of the Taliban and their rapid domination of Afghanistan shocked the world. It is a response to the chronic historical, political and social crises of the Afghan society, which is still in geopolitical and strategic confusion and disorder. Using the analytical descriptive method, the present study attempts to answer the question related to the causes of the reemergence of the Taliban based on Thomas Spragens’ crisis theory. The research hypothesis states that the conflict between political actors and the creation of a political deadlock has caused successive crises and political, social and security disintegration in the society. Accepting the Taliban, the Afghan people seek to solve the crisis and restore, peace, stability, order and security for themselves and their descendants. It seems that the occupation of the country, nonimplementation of Sharia laws and spread of corruption are signs of a brewing crisis caused by the weakness of the central government, lack of nation-state agreement, the spread of ethnocentrism and overdependence on America. To address these challenges, Afghans increasingly resort to Jihad and the formation of an Islamic Emirate as a possible solution.

Over the past three decades, the world has experienced significant turbulence, shaped by conflicts, global transformations, and crises within the international community. The end of the Cold War disrupted a long-established order, leaving both policymakers and scholars in uncharted territory. During the Cold War, international relations were more predictable, offering a stable framework for strategic analysis. In the aftermath, a wave of activity in the United States — fueled by a sense of victory — sought to redefine the future. This effort went beyond physical actions, extending into research institutions, think tanks, and academia, all striving to chart new courses in both practice and theory. Yet, the rapid pace of change and the fluid nature of the global landscape led to numerous missteps and misjudgments, affecting both major and middle powers to varying degrees. This paper examines the consequences of these intellectual efforts and the transitional phase that followed. It explores the defining features of this period and the forces that have shaped it. By shedding light on these dynamics, the paper aims to equip policymakers and scholars with the insights needed to better understand and influence the emerging international order. The ultimate goal is to foster a practical understanding of the challenges and opportunities ahead, helping navigate the complexities of the evolving global landscape.