Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy

Net capital flows to Emerging Asia rebounded at a record pace following the global financial crisis, raising concerns about overheating and financial stability. This paper documents the size and composition of the most recent surge to Asian emerging markets from a historical perspective and compares developments in the broader economy, asset prices, and corporate variables across the different episodes of strong inflows. We find little evidence of a significant build-up of imbalances and resource misallocation during the most recent surge. We also review country experiences in managing the risks associated with inflows and argue that Asian countries have used regulatory measures during past surges.

The world has experienced episodes of global financial stress every 2.5 years on average over the past two decades, with repercussions on a global scale. Over the same period, emerging economies have improved their macroeconomic fundamentals while becoming increasingly integrated with the world. Against this backdrop, are these economies more or less vulnerable to large global financial shocks? What roles have macroeconomic fundamentals and financial integration played in amplifying or buffering the impact of these shocks? This paper addresses these questions by examining the output cost associated with these events in 40 emerging and nine "small" advanced economies during the period 1990–2010.

We review the literature on Dutch disease, and document that shocks that trigger foreign exchange inflows (such as natural resource booms, surges in foreign aid, remittances, or capital inflows) appreciate the real exchange rate, generate factor reallocation, and reduce manufacturing output and net exports. We also observe that real exchange rate misalignment due to overvaluation and higher volatility of the real exchange rate lower growth. Regarding the effect of undervaluation of the exchange rate on economic growth, the evidence is mixed and inconclusive. However, there is no evidence in the literature that Dutch disease reduces overall economic growth. Policy responses should aim at adequately managing the boom and the risks associated with it.

The European economy was hit by a confidence shock in 2009 when the Greek government of Papandreou discovered the true amount of public deficit. The subsequent loss of trust in European fiscal governance reduced financial markets' willingness to lend to indebted governments. The European Union established the Financial Stability Facility to support debt-ridden states but without lasting success. The continuously rising Greek bond yields suggest that the information transmitted from political leaders did not reduce investors' risk perceptions. We develop a theoretical framework, in which financial market participants do not know the real rate of return on Greek assets but infer it from the signals emitted by informed European governments. Based on a unique news dataset, we investigate the impact of good and bad news from the European institutions on the Greek interest spread. The results demonstrate that the noise around the European decision-making process substantially raised the bailout cost.

This paper discusses the challenging question of whether central banks should use Treasury bills or central bank bills for draining excess liquidity in the banking system. While recognizing that there are practical reasons for using central bank bills, the paper argues that Treasury bills are the first best option especially because of the positive externalities for the financial sector and the rest of the economy. However, the main considerations in the choice should be: (i) operational independence for the central bank; (ii) market development; and (iii) the strengthening of the transmission of monetary policy impulses.

Regional corridors are popular components of regional cooperation initiatives and have been promoted for several years. Yet discussion about development of these corridors tends to be relatively general in scope and difficult to pin down in terms of content and implications. This paper outlines a simple framework for regional corridors development in the context of regional cooperation, anchored on two dimensions of these corridors: the extent to which they are national or regional, and the area of their utilization. The framework is subsequently applied to a specific example, the GMS regional cooperation program, yielding several implications for its future. The framework is also applied towards identifying an appropriate methodology for monitoring performance of regional corridors.