Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy

Recent years’ global shocks (e.g., the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic) and environmental shocks — such as natural disasters — have heightened the vulnerability of developing countries to future shocks, and can compromise their development prospects. International institutions and researchers have advocated that the strengthening of productive capacities in these countries would help enhance the resilience of their economies to shocks, and promote sustainable development. This paper has examined the effect of productive capacities on economic growth and economic growth volatility in developing countries, in particular when they face a high level of structural economic vulnerability. The analysis covers 117 developing countries over the period of 2000–2018. It shows that productive capacities not only promote economic growth, but also reduce economic growth volatility. On the other hand, structural economic vulnerability reduces economic growth (in particular when it exceeds a certain level), and induces greater volatility of economic growth. Interestingly, productive capacities promote economic growth and reduce economic growth volatility in countries that face a high degree of structural economic vulnerability. These findings support the recommendation by international institutions and researchers that if they were to enhance the resilience of their economies to shocks, and promote sustainable economic growth, developing countries (in particular the poorest ones) should strengthen their productive capacities.

Due to the geographic location of Australia and New Zealand, air transport is the dominant mode of travel between the two nations and to and from the rest of the world. While the trans- Tasman air passenger market between the two countries has grown over the last 20 years, direct air routes to Australian destinations from New Zealand’s regional cities of Dunedin, Hamilton and Palmerston North have seen a major decline and, in most cases, the complete closure of those routes. This study uses the two-stage least squares (2SLS) gravity model to investigate the determinants of air passenger numbers on eight sampled city-pair routes. Empirical results show that for these trans-Tasman markets, expanded seat capacity has a strong positive impact on air passenger numbers. A longer driving time to travel to the nearest alternative international airport, the 2008/09 GFC and the winter season in New Zealand are also associated with an increase in air passenger numbers. In contrast, the presence of full-service network carriers has a negative impact on air passenger numbers.

Prior studies focused on the relationship between foreign direct investment (FDI), carbon emissions, and trade openness; however, previous investigations have yet to explicitly look at carbon emissions using data at the sector level. Using the threshold regression technique and the concentration of carbon emissions as the main indicator, this research adds to the body of knowledge by examining the sector-level impacts of FDI and trade openness on carbon emissions. Our results show that the effect depends on the selected thresholds, highlighting the effects of FDI and trade openness on carbon emissions in the industrial area. The influence coefficient of FDI on carbon emissions in industries particular to a specific sector varies over time. Conversely, carbon emissions are affected by trade openness both favorably and unfavorably. More specifically, in less carbon-intensive industries the, lack of carbon emissions results from greater international trade openness. Within industrial sectors, carbon emissions are heavily influenced by variables including GDP per capita, employment levels, autonomous technical invention, and the intensity of economic movement.

Energy commodity price forecasts have always been quite important to a lot of market participants. To tackle the problem, our analysis looks at West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices on a daily basis. The sample under inquiry covers 10 years, from April 4, 2014 to April 3, 2024, and the price series under analysis has major financial implications. Here, Gaussian process regression methods are developed using Bayesian optimization techniques and cross-validation processes, and the resulting strategies are utilized to provide price projections. The relative root mean square error of 2.2743% indicates that our empirical prediction approach produces reasonably accurate price estimates for the out-of-sample assessment period of April 19, 2022–April 3, 2024. Models of price predictions give investors and governments the information they need to make wise choices about the crude oil market.

The objective of this study is to evaluate the impacts of policy uncertainty and economic freedom on the stability of national banking systems worldwide. The research sample includes 165 countries and covers the period from 1997 to 2021. The study employs panel data estimation methods including the fixed effects model, random effects model, Driscoll–Kraay standard errors approach, and system GMM. The findings consistently show that policy uncertainties, including world policy uncertainty, trade policy uncertainty, and global economic policy uncertainty, negatively affect bank stability. Additionally, economic freedom policies can help mitigate the negative impact of policy uncertainty.