Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy

Based on a proposed measure of tax reform in developing countries, this paper examines both how tax reform is influenced by development aid flows, and whether this effect depends on countries’ degree of openness to international trade. Tax reform involves here the change of the tax structure in favor of domestic tax revenue and at the expense of trade tax revenue. Empirical results based on 102 developing countries over the period 1980–2015 suggest that development aid exerts a positive effect on tax reform in developing countries, with relatively less advanced countries enjoying a higher positive effect than advanced developing countries. Additionally, recipient-countries’ degree of trade openness matters for the effect of development aid on tax reform.

This paper re-studies the relationship between trade openness and environmental pollution. Through the theoretical framework, there is a non-uniform effect of trade openness on environmental pollution. Utilizing four alternative measures of trade openness as threshold variables, this paper examines the effect of trade openness on environmental pollution. We adopt a regression with nonlinearity, in which our nonlinear model includes two regressions — a threshold model and an interaction-term model. Utilizing four alternative measures of trade openness, our threshold test shows a single-threshold effect on pollutant emissions, implying that there are two regimes: low- and high-corruption. Our empirical results show that for countries with high-corruption, increases in trade openness significantly reduce pollutants emissions whatever CO₂ emissions or SO₂ emissions, and the larger effects of trade openness on environmental quality. However, the impact of trade openness on pollution was not found in countries with low-corruption. This study suggests that further trade openness and reduced environmental degradation (i.e., decline in CO₂ and SO₂ emissions) are compatible rather than competing objectives, especially in high-corruption countries. Furthermore, our results also show that in low-corruption countries, the negative effects of income on CO₂ emissions are statistically significant, but in high-corruption countries it is not so.

We characterize the marginal product of capital on a cross-section data of 88 economies over 1980–2013. The marginal product of capital is increasing on savings misallocation rate, measuring the fraction of savings unconverted into investment, on productivity growth and on financial openness. One country with a higher marginal product of capital makes more domestic investment, receives more foreign direct investment (FDI) and equities inflows, but accumulates more foreign debts and reserves. Moreover, it also has a higher financial development level.

A New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model with habit persistence used to examine the US slowdown is also used to analyze the contribution of basic demand and supply shocks to the Indian slowdown. Kalman filter-based maximum likelihood estimation is undertaken with Indian output, inflation and interest rate data. First, our model based output gap tracks the statistical Hodrick–Prescott filter-based output gap well. Second, comparison of estimated parameters, impulse responses and forecast error variance decomposition between India and the US brings out the differences in policy responses, the structure of the two economies and their inflationary processes. There is a higher impact of interest rate shocks on output and inflation, and lower impact of technology shocks on output but higher on inflation in comparison to US. The former indicates monetary policy over-reaction and the latter validates a supply curve that technology shocks shift and inadequate adjustment of actual to potential output. Habit persistence is higher, markup and interest rate shocks are more volatile in India. Markup shocks play a much larger role in determination of Indian inflation again pointing to the importance of supply side factors. Third, smoothed states obtained from the Kalman filter to create counterfactual paths of output and inflation (during 2009:Q4 to 2013:Q2) in the presence of a given shock, show monetary shocks imposed significant output cost. The output gap was negative post the 2011 slowdown and in 2016.