Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy

In this paper, we employ a time-varying parameter vector autoregression (TVP-VAR) in combination with an extended joint connectedness approach to study interlinkages between the cryptocurrency and Vietnam’s stock market by characterizing their connectedness starting from January 1, 2018, to December 31, 2021. We report that the COVID-19 health shocks impact the system-wide dynamic connectedness, which reaches a peak during the COVID-19 pandemic. Net total directional connectedness suggests that the cryptocurrency market significantly impacts Vietnam’s stock market, especially those with the largest market capitalization like Bitcoin and Ethereum. This market can be held accountable for Vietnam’s stock market volatility. In encountering the COVID-19 pandemic, the effect of the three cryptocurrencies reduced before 2020, around the end of 2019 and the beginning of 2020. However, from the end of 2020–2021, while cryptocurrencies continued their roles as net transmitters for Vietnam’s stock market.

The paper examined real wage convergence across 27 European economies, at aggregate and sectoral levels, using the panel unit root tests of stochastic convergence and the club clustering procedure. Convergence was absent for a panel as a whole, but present within the clubs. In most sectors, the common component of the relative wages was stationary, while idiosyncratic component contained unit roots, suggesting the country- and sector-specific drivers of convergence and only transitory effects of exogenous forces. The most pronounced club convergence was observed in the sectors characterized by significant labor mobility, knowledge intensity and speed of technological change.

The failure of energy economists and planners to comprehend the dynamics and paradigm shift in the finance and institutional quality domain that drive energy use is blamed for the ongoing energy consumption concerns. Consequently, this study revisits and contributes to repositories by examining the relationship between finance-renewable energy consumption and institution-renewable energy consumption. The research question raised is: Do governance indicators moderate the impact of finance on renewable energy consumption? With panel dataset of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa spanning from 2010 to 2020 and using political stability, voice and accountability, government effectiveness, and regulatory quality indicators of governance, the research output is as follows: (i) Financial development exerts a significant positive impact on renewable energy consumption and intensity, but the level of impact is weak (i.e., at a 10% level significant). (ii) The governance indicators significantly drag renewable energy consumption and intensity. (iii) The negative interaction between financial development and governance indicators is sufficient to worsen the weak relationship between finance and renewable energy in sub-Saharan Africa. (iv) Governance threshold eroded the weak positive effect of financial development on renewable energy consumption and intensity, leading to negative synergy effect in some cases, and (v) The net effect from the moderating impact of governance indicators on finance is significantly different across model specification. The study demonstrates the undeveloped nature of finance and institutional framework in sub-Saharan Africa, considering the weak association between the key variables.

This paper investigates the efficacy of currency management as a policy tool to improve trade balance by analyzing the impact of the real exchange rate on the bilateral trade between the United States and China. The paper builds upon the existing literature and empirical analysis is carried out based on the J-curve hypothesis using quarterly data from 2000Q1 to 2021Q4. The vector-auto regression (VAR) model is estimated using China and the United States’ trade balance, real exchange rate, and GDP. The impulse response functions provide evidence of the J-curve. A shock in Yuan (CNY)-US dollar real exchange rate leads to initial deterioration but improvement in the trade balance in favor of China over subsequent quarters. The results hold for various sub-periods of analysis, i.e., after the exchange rate was allowed to fluctuate since July 2005. Evidence supports that the policy of managing the real exchange rate might have yielded desired results for China.

This paper analyzes the impact of government economic interventions to ameliorate the COVID-19 pandemic on the survival of small, micro, and medium enterprises (SMMEs) in South Africa. We use the Cox Proportional Hazards approach and cross-sectional data from King Cetshwayo District Municipality covering 641 SMMEs. The study finds that tax relief was the most important intervention used to sustain SMMEs during the pandemic. Other interventions, such as cash grants and cheap credit, were also used during the period but had a small impact. Our findings support the interventions used by the South African government in mitigating the negative consequences of the pandemic-induced lockdown on small businesses. However, we also note that the magnitude at which the interventions were made could have been lower than what is optimal. The paper recommends the need to increase and have sustainable targeted expenditure during the difficult times to enhance the resilience of SMMEs to accelerate economic development and growth.

This investigation applies a VAR and an ARDL model to estimate the sacrifice ratio in the period of 1968–2018 subject to two regimes in India. The range for the sacrifice ratio mostly lies between $-$0.5 and 1 for the period of 1968–2002 while also experiencing sensitive shifts of $-$10 and 15. For the period of 2002–2018, the ratio lies between $-$3 and 5. Furthermore, the long run estimate of the sacrifice ratio is $-$2.35 and the short run is $-$0.35. It is concluded that the period of 1968–2002 was more sensitive and more prone to disinflationary costs than gains while the period of 2002–2018 is more resilient and is characterized by both costs and gains to disinflation. The gains from disinflation for the period of 2002–2018 exceed those of the period of 1968–2002. In a comparative perspective, the costs to disinflation for India are much less than the usual range of the sacrifice ratio for advanced economies.