Dealing with an Ambiguous World

The following sections are included:

• THE S R NATHAN FELLOWSHIP FOR THE STUDY OF SINGAPORE AND THE IPS-NATHAN LECTURES
• CONTENTS
• FOREWORD
• ABOUT THE MODERATORS

Singapore is a unique country in many ways. One of our less discussed peculiarities is that although there can be few countries more exposed to and dependent on the international environment than we are, the level of public interest in and understanding of foreign policy is not high. Indeed I sometimes think of us as rather parochial. I must confess that for much of my career as a Foreign Service Officer I found it convenient to practise my trade without the distractions and complications of public attention that bedevil the diplomats of other countries. But I have since come to the conclusion − and not just because I am now safely retired with no executive responsibilities − that this is not only unsustainable, but undesirable.

US-China relations set the tone for East Asia: when they are stable, the region is calm; when they are roiled, the region is uneasy. In time the same will hold true, I believe, for other regions as well. US-China relations will certainly be a, if not the, central pillar of any new post-Cold War international order.

In my last lecture I argued that the chief priorities of both the US and China are internal and both therefore want to avoid war or serious conflict as they seek a new modus vivendi with each other. At the same time neither will cease to pursue their interests. On a global scale, China is not a clearly revisionist power. But Beijing clearly wants to reclaim something of its historical centrality in East Asia. The US has emphasised that it intends to remain an East Asian power. The strategic challenge for China is therefore how to shift the US from the very centre of the East Asian strategic equation and occupy that space, but without provoking responses from the US and Japan that could jeopardise Chinese Communist Party (CCP) rule. For the US the strategic challenge is how to accommodate China, while reassuring friends and allies that it intends to hold its position without stumbling into conflict. In Southeast Asia, US-China competition in the South China Sea (SCS) has emerged as a proxy for the broader strategic adjustments that are underway.

As I stand here before you, at least three different things are happening simultaneously: what I think; what I say to convey what I think which, because of the limitations of language or by design, will not always be the same as what I think; and what you hear and understand of what I had intended to convey, which is again not necessarily the same thing. Misunderstanding of some degree is inherent in all human communication; indeed in all human perception. One might call this the “Rashomon phenomenon” after the title of the short story by the Japanese author Ryunosuke Akutagawa. Human rights and democracy more than other subjects are particularly susceptible to this phenomenon. Anything really “universal” ought to be less prone to misunderstanding. In fact the evidence of our senses tells us that the most salient characteristic of the world we live in is diversity, not universality.

Singapore is in much better shape than in 1965. Our economy is more robust and diversified, linked by a network of Free Trade Agreements (FTA) to the major economies. The Singapore Armed Forces (SAF) is strong and deterrence keeps our neighbourhood honest. We enjoy good relations with all the major powers. We have a wide and respected diplomatic network. Our city is safe with public services provided at a level of efficiency that is the envy of other cities. Of course, we are not perfect and as Mr Lee Kuan Yew has observed, Singaporeans are also champion grumblers.

The following sections are included:

• APPENDICES
  • Lee Kuan Yew’s Cast of Mind and its Lasting Influence (31 October 2015)
  • A Tribute to S R Nathan (1924–2016) (24 August 2016)